We are just one week away from the start of the Major League Baseball playoffs, which means all players have one last ditch effort to pad their statistics and to try to achieve any personal goals they set forth for themselves. Following yesterday’s small four-game slate, we have a full 15-game schedule on Tuesday with which to select our best MLB player prop bets.
Read on for our top MLB player prop bets for Tuesday, September 24.
Join our new MLB Betting Group to share bets and compete in leaderboards >>
Tuesday's Best MLB Player Prop Bets
(MLB player prop bet odds courtesy of DraftKings Sportsbook)
Tarik Skubal Under 7.5 strikeouts (-130)
Tarik Skubal has all but seen up the AL Cy Young Award, and with the Detroit Tigers currently barely clinging to one of the AL’s three wild card spots, the Tigers have smartly given Skubal extra rest to position him for an all-important end of the season start over the weekend if needed.
Knowing that the team might need to ride Skubal down the stretch, and/or utilize him early and often in a first-round playoff series, Skubal has not thrown more than 98 pitches in any of his last five starts. And while he has thrown 95-plus pitches in three of the previous four, he has not been the most economical with that pitch count, recording 18 or more outs in just half of those four starts.
Tampa Bay ranks 23rd in wOBA against southpaws in road games, and has struck out at the sixth-highest rate among all AL teams in that split. I envision a situation where the Tigers build a comfortable early lead, and then remove Skubal earlier than normal knowing much more important starts are ahead in the coming week.
Aaron Judge to hit a home run (+285)
Aaron Judge is slugging just .522 this month, which would be his lowest in a month this season since April when he slugged .450 and hit six home runs in 100 at-bats. However, after a four-game home run drought on the West Coast, Judge hit home runs in each of the final two games of the series against the Oakland Athletics, and comes home to face Orioles righty Dean Kremer, against whom he has a 1.438 OPS with three of his four hits leaving the ballpark.
In what was a contentious AL East race for much of the season, it would be fitting for Judge to essentially put the nail in Baltimore’s coffin in the division races by going yard. He is slashing .292/.514/.708 against the Orioles this year, and after going 34 1/3 innings without allowing a home run, Kremer gave up two home runs in his last start against the Giants, a team that has hit the fifth-fewest home runs in the NL this year.
Luis Severino Under 5.5 strikeouts (-150)
The game of the day is the series opener between the Mets and Braves, with New York starting the day two games up on Atlanta in the wild card race. The atmosphere at Truist Park should feel like a playoff game, and with Severino posting a 9.1 K/9 rate in his postseason career (slightly less than his 9.4 K/9 career rate in regular season games), I expect him to go under this projected total tonight.
When looking at the entire second half of the season, Atlanta has struck out at the ninth-highest rate against right-handed pitchers in home games. However, over the last 30 days, it has struck out at a bottom-four rate in that split, lowering its strikeout rate to 18.5%, while owning the best BB/K ratio of any team in the league. Severino’s 7.9 K/9 rate this season is much less than his career average, and in 11 innings against the Braves this year, he has recorded 10 strikeouts. But with this being the third time the Braves have seen him this season, I expect much more contact from the lineup as a whole.
Mike Spector is a featured writer at BettingPros. For more from Mike, check out his archive and follow him @MikeSpector01.