The MLB season is in full swing. Every Friday in this column, we will seek to attack pitcher matchups. We won't bore you with exclusively under only plays, but we won't shy away from them if they offer more value than usual. Total strikeouts, outs recorded, and, as the season progresses, total hits and total bases; they're all in play. Let’s dig into our top MLB player props and picks for Friday’s slate of games.
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MLB Player Props & Bets: Friday (8/14)
Season Record: 37-21
Vladimir Guerrero Over 0.5 Hits (-203 at Kalshi)
Vlade has been stepping it up lately for the Toronto Blue Jays, averaging a .308 batting average since missing three games with right hamstring inflammation and tightness (a six-game span). He is hitting a solid but not spectacular .262 this season, but his power stroke has all but disappeared as the former slugger has just seven dingers all season. All in all, it has been a disappointing season for the Blue Jays superstar, especially when team success coming off a World Series appearance is factored in.
Tonight, Vlade will take on Gerrit Cole, a pitcher he has a .343 lifetime batting average against over 35 at-bats (12-35). He collected six extra base hits and two home runs out of those 12 hits. Cole, as expected, has been rock solid this season and comes into this contest with a 3.35 ERA and a 1.08 WHIP, but this is a Vlade matchup play, not an attack Cole play. He has yet to face Guerrero this season. Grab the Over on Vlade for Friday night's MLB action.
Pete Crow-Armstrong Over 0.5 Hits (-213 at Kalshi)
Pete Crow-Armstrong has impressed this season with a .281 batting average to go with 27 home runs and 30 stolen bases. The odds-on favorite to win the NL MVP award, PCA has collected at least one hit in eight of his last 10 games. PCA is one of the most exciting players in all of baseball.
He draws a comfortable assignment this afternoon against pitcher Matthew Liberatore, a pitcher he is familiar with and has a track record of success against. Crow-Armstrong has a .308 lifetime average against Liberatore over 13 at-bats. Liberatore has struggled for much of the season and will come to the mound in this one with an unsightly 5.15 ERA and 1.52 WHIP to go with a 5-9 record. The juice on this one is heavy, but there is an argument that it should be quite a bit higher, or even available as an alt line only. Lock this one in before that becomes a reality. And as always, go for a one unit wager, and not a one unit return.
Chase Burns Over 5.5 Strikeouts (-270 at Kalshi)
Chase Burns has been elite for the Cincinnati Reds and comes into this contest with an excellent 2.61 ERA, 1.12 WHIP, and 10.38 K/9. Burns has been much better at home as far as ERA goes despite playing in a hitters park, where his ERA drops to 2.20. He thrives against lineups centered around right handed batters, like he will face tonight; he has a .187 batting average against versus right handed bats.
The play tonight is targeting Miami and their undisciplined plate approach against Burns' 10.38 K/9. Miami averages 8.12 strikeouts per game, and fresh off a 10-strikeout beatdown last night, the Marlins will be a popular target for Burns prop players. We will be moving the line at Kalshi to 5.5 strikeouts or 'yes' to record six or more strikeouts to get a more favorable probability. There is plus money on the actual line of 6.5, as Burns has recorded seven or more strikeouts just once in his last six games. However, he has punched out six or more in three of his last four and in 14 of his last 18 games overall. Bump the Over on the Burns alt line for Friday night's MLB action at Kalshi.
Raju Byfield is a featured writer at BettingPros. For more from Raju, check out his archive and follow him @FantasyContext.