I am back with my first MLB player props article of the second half of the season. It was a bumpy road to the All-Star break, but it is time to get back on track. Here are three of my favorite player props for Wednesday, July 22nd.
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Wednesday's Best MLB Player Props & Bets
James Wood Over 1.5 Total Bases (-137 at DraftKings Sportsbook)
For my first MLB player prop, I am betting on James Wood to record at least two total bases against Gabriel Hughes and Colorado.
Wood has really struggled coming out of last week's All-Star break. However, the slugger hit two doubles in his final three trips to the plate last night. He could be snapping out of it just in time for a matchup against Hughes, Colorado's 2022 first-round pick.
Hughes has had success in his three Major League starts since being called up earlier this month. However, Wood has had tremendous results against his arsenal this season.
Hughes throws his four-seam fastball 55% of the time when facing a left-handed hitter. That matters here because Wood demolishes four-seamers from right-handed pitchers. He has a .413 batting average and a .907 slugging rate against them. That includes 10 home runs in just 75 at-bats. Hughes knows this, of course. But the four-seamer has been his best pitch so far, so I don't see him shying away from using it.
The Rockies right-hander has four other pitches he throws against left-handed hitters. He has thrown each of them between 9-12% of the time. Those percentages could fluctuate, considering Hughes has only 14.1 MLB innings under his belt. Wood has been good against sliders and change-ups and has struggled against curveballs and sweepers.
Colorado will also likely be without some of its top bullpen arms in Wednesday's matinee. Juan Mejia and Victor Vodnik have both pitched each of the last two days, while Jordan Romano has pitched in two out of the last three games. The team's only lefty, Brennan Bernardino, pitched 1.1 innings on Tuesday night. Wood should get Hughes for three plate appearances, then likely two more against Zach Agnos and Antonio Senzatela. The pair of Rockies relievers have served up a combined .520 slugging rate when facing left-handed hitters in Coors Field.
James Wood is in prime position to have a big day at the plate on Wednesday. I am betting on him to record at least two total bases in the finale of this three-game series.
TJ Rumfield Over 1.5 Hits + Runs + RBIs (-145 at FanDuel Sportsbook/Caesars Sportsbook)
I am sticking with the same game for my next prop. I am going with Colorado’s TJ Rumfield to record at least two combined hits + runs + runs batted in against the Nationals.
Rumfield has quietly put together an excellent rookie season in Colorado. The Rockies first baseman is hitting .297 with a 124 wRC+. It should come as no surprise that those numbers improve when Rumfield plays at home, especially against right-handed pitchers.
In 147 plate appearances in Coors Field versus righties, Rumfield is hitting .341 with a .581 slugging rate. He has a .996 OPS in this split. For reference, Yordan Alvarez is the only qualified hitter in baseball who has an overall OPS this season higher than 1.000. Rumfield has had at least two combined hits + runs + RBIs in nine of his last 13 home games.
Cade Cavalli has had a solid season overall for Washington. However, he has had problems containing left-handed hitters. Lefties are hitting .286 against the Nationals right-hander this year, including a .289 mark in Cavalli's road starts. Colorado is likely to stack Wednesday's lineup with six or seven left-handed bats. The Rockies should be able to put rallies together versus Cavalli, and I expect Rumfield to be at the forefront of that charge. I am taking him to exceed his combined hits + runs + RBIs number.
Mookie Betts Over 1.5 Hits + Runs + RBIs (-120 at FanDuel Sportsbook)
For my final MLB player prop bet for Wednesday, I am taking Mookie Betts to register at least two combined hits + runs + RBIs when the Dodgers face Aaron Nola and Philadelphia. Betts and Nola are not exactly the versions we have grown accustomed to seeing over the years. However, Nola's dropoff has been much more precipitous.
Betts is still averaging over two combined hits + runs + RBIs per game. He has favorable splits both on the road (105 wRC+) and versus right-handed pitching (111 wRC+). When facing right-handed pitchers on the road, Betts has a 135 wRC+. He has also had considerable success against Nola in their previous meetings. Betts is 10-for-24 with four extra-base hits in their head-to-head matchups.
Nola, meanwhile, has been below average all season long. He has allowed at least two earned runs in 13 consecutive starts. Nola has a 6.50 ERA at home this season. He has given up at least three runs in eight of his nine home starts, and opponents are hitting .312 against Nola at Citizens Bank Park.
It does not feel like the Dodgers have been the offensive juggernaut we all expected before the season. And yet they enter this matchup leading all of MLB with a 117 wRC+ versus right-handed pitchers. There should be no shortage of opportunities for Betts to drive in a run at the plate, and we likely only need him to cash in on one such attempt for this bet to hit.
