We have a few interesting MLB matchups on Saturday. Let’s examine them and build a few MLB same game parlays (SGP) with our top MLB picks and predictions.
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Saturday's Best MLB Same Game Parlays & Picks
(Odds courtesy of Fanduel Sportsbook)
Kansas City Royals at San Diego Padres
- Leg 1: Padres Moneyline (-170)
- Leg 2: Royals Under 3.5 Runs (-145)
- Leg 3: Under 7.5 Total Runs (-120)
It has been a brutal season for the Cease as he's 2-6 with a 4.69 ERA. This comes after he finished in the top four in Cy Young voting in two of the previous four seasons. He's coming off one of his worst starts of the season, where he gave up six earned runs in a loss to the Dodgers.
However, if you look at some of the metrics, he has been pitching well; he generates swings and misses with his whiff rate in the 95th percentile and chase in the 82nd percentile. This helps him to be one of the better strikeout pitchers with a 30.3% strikeout rate. The problem is when he gives up a hit, batters make excellent contact with a barrel rate in the 20th percentile.
He gets the Royals, whose offense regressed this season, and over the last 13 games, their 6.4% barrel rate is 25th, and their .299 weighted on-base average is 24th. He could have a chance to regroup with a solid outing.
Parlay Odds: +392
Arizona Diamondbacks at Colorado Rockies
- Leg 1: Carson Palmquist Over 3.5 Earned Runs Allowed (-150)
- Leg 2: Merrill Kelly 3+ Earned Runs Allowed (-170)
- Leg 3: Over 12 Total Runs (-117)
It's been an up-and-down season for Merrill Kelly, where we've seen some impressive starts followed by some unsuccessful outings. For example, he's coming off allowing four earned runs in five innings, but he had two previous consecutive starts in which he didn't allow an earned run.
He's made a change this season and decreased the usage of his four-seam fastball and increased the use of his changeup. The mix of speeds has helped him, and that changeup has been especially impactful as it generates a 35.8% whiff rate.
We might see him have another rough start; he has a career 4.25 ERA at Coors Field, and the Rockies have been hitting well recently, with a league-leading .360 weighted on-base average and fourth in hard-hit rate (45.6%) in their last 13 games. What will help the Diamondbacks in this game is that they are facing Carson Palmquist, whom they hammered for five runs in his MLB debut back in May.
Parlay Odds: +391
Houston Astros at Los Angeles Angels
- Leg 1: Jose Soriano Under 6.5 Hits Allowed (-145)
- Leg 2: Jose Soriano Over 18.5 Outs Recorded (+130)
Jose Soriano has caught some bad luck this season as he has an excellent 3.54 ERA, but is 6-9. He's only getting a 3.53 runs of support per game, and there are six instances where he allowed three runs or fewer and either lost or got the no decision.
He's not overpowering, but he does well at keeping the ball down and is one of the best at inducing ground balls; his 67.2% groundball rate is in the 99th percentile. We should see plenty of groundballs from the Astros as they are 20th in roundball rate this season (43.5%).
Parlay Odds: +289
