The Milwaukee Brewers can earn a sweep over the Los Angeles Dodgers in the National League Championship Series (NLCS) tonight. They’re up 3-0 after yesterday’s come-from-behind win. Meanwhile, the Guardians and Rays will play Game 3 of the American League Championship Series (ALCS) early this afternoon. The series is tied at one, so whoever wins this one will take the lead. Here are my top MLB same game parlays (SGP) for tonight’s two playoff matchups.
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Thursday’s Best MLB Same Game Parlays
(Odds courtesy of DraftKings Sportsbook)
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Tampa Bay Rays vs. Cleveland Guardians
- Leg 1: Gavin Williams Over 6.5 Strikeouts (-104)
- Leg 2: Griffin Jax Under 3.5 Strikeouts (+121)
- Leg 3: Jonny DeLuca Over 0.5 Hits (-154)
The Cleveland Guardians will send out ace pitcher Gavin Williams. He’s been dominant, but the numbers are even wilder. He’s struck out 42% of batters in the last month. That’s 42% of strikeouts against his last 88 batters faced this season.
Meanwhile, he’ll face a Rays lineup that has four batters with strikeout rates of at least 26.2% against righties in the last 30 days. The projected Rays lineup has hit just a .137 ISO and a wOBA of .290 against righties in the last month. Williams will likely go deep in this game, which should help his strikeout over.
That said, Williams has still allowed a .174 ISO and a .314 wOBA to 314 righties this season. He’s been better recently, but is still having some issues against righties. He’s allowed 26.3% of line drives and continues to fall behind against righties lately. Jonny DeLuca has a .310 ISO and a .420 wOBA against his last 32 righties as a right-handed batter. He’s the best option for a hit today.
Griffin Jax will pitch for the Rays. He’s a righty who has struck out 31.5% of batters in the last 30 days. However, he’ll face a Guardians projected lineup that has added only 18% of strikeouts against righties in the last month. The Guardians have more pop in the lineup and have struck out fewer times against righties. I’ll take Jax’s under in strikeouts to close out this parlay.
Parlay Odds: +575
Los Angeles Dodgers vs. Milwaukee Brewers
- Leg 1: Tyler Glasnow Over 5.5 Strikeouts (-154)
- Leg 2: Tyler Glasnow Over 1.5 Walks Allowed (-173)
- Leg 3: Mookie Betts Over 1.5 Total Bases (+132)
Tyler Glasnow has struck out nearly 39% of batters in the last month. He’s also held his last 67 batters to a .071 ISO and a wOBA of .208 with a .194 batting average on balls in play (BABIP) and 13.1% of swinging strikes. He’ll take on a Brewers lineup that is weak against righties. Only Brice Turang and William Contreras have hit above average against righties over the last month.
Glasnow should be able to rack up strikeouts against this lineup. For one, he’ll likely go deep. Second, the Brewers’ projected lineup has struck out 27.3% of the time against righties in the last month.
That said, Glasnow has also walked 13.4% of batters in the last 30 days. Ultimately, he’ll face a Milwaukee squad with five batters walking at least 8.9% of the time against righties in the last 30 days. Milwaukee will likely add some base runners from walks.
On the other hand, the Brewers will likely throw Dustin May and Kyle Harrison. They haven’t announced a starter, but those two would make the most sense. Harrison, for example, has allowed a .250 ISO and a wOBA of .520 to his last 17 righties.
Mookie Betts has a .375 ISO and a .512 wOBA against lefties in the last 30 days, with just 6.9% strikeouts. Add Betts to earn at least two total bases to finish this same-game parlay.
Parlay Odds: +495
