It has been four consecutive profitable weeks for our NFL Thursday Night Football TD scorers picks after cashing in on Bucky Irving’s +195 anytime touchdown odds in Week 5.
This week’s Seahawks-Broncos tilt features two of the best defenses in the league, which is why the game’s O/U of 40.5 points is tied for the second-lowest on the Week 6 slate. Nevertheless, Sean Payton is back calling plays for the Broncos, which is why I find value in a Denver player’s anytime touchdown odds, while also adding a play on who will score the game’s first touchdown.
Here are the best touchdown scorer picks for Week 6’s Thursday Night Football contest between the Seahawks and Broncos.
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NFL Thursday Night Football TD Scorers Picks: Seahawks vs. Broncos
(Odds courtesy of DraftKings Sportsbook)
Jaxon Smith-Njigba First Touchdown Scorer (+600)
Given Bo Nix’s propensity for leading fourth-quarter comebacks (he has led the NFL in such comebacks since 2024 and has three this year), I am backing Seattle to score the game’s first touchdown, led by its most consistent offensive weapon.
Jaxon Smith-Njigba leads the league in target share (35.2%) and percentage of air yards (52.4%). He can also take short passes and turn them into huge gains, as evidenced by his early career-high in yards after the catch (37.8).
Even though Denver’s pass rush is intimidating, I wouldn’t expect many blitzes or more than a standard four-man pass rush, given how banged up its secondary is. Patrick Surtain II likely won’t play, and Riley Moss is questionable with a rib injury, so the Seahawks would be wise to attack that unit early and often.
With Denver averaging a league-low 0.88 points per drive in the first half, I wouldn’t put anyone off loading up on Seahawks players to score first.
J.K. Dobbins Anytime Touchdown Scorer (+180)
The matchup is a brutal one for J.K. Dobbins. He faces a Seahawks defense that ranks second in defensive expected points added (EPA) and allows the fifth-fewest yards per carry to running backs (3.6). However, opportunities matter, and Dobbins took advantage of a less-crowded Broncos backfield last week, logging a season-high 20 touches, 18 of which were rushing attempts.
Denver’s lack of big-play ability is why I’m higher on its running back’s anytime touchdown scorer chances. The Broncos have logged the second-fewest 20-plus-yard plays. Meanwhile, Seattle has allowed the second-fewest 15-yard plays and the third-fewest 20-or-more-yard plays.
The Broncos are typically more of a pass-first offense (12th in pass percentage, 21st in rush percentage). But Seattle’s imposing secondary could force Denver to be more conservative.
Mike Spector is a featured writer at BettingPros. For more from Mike, check out his archive and follow him @MikeSpector01.