Happy Thursday. It’s a limited MLB slate today, with just eight games on tap. Most in the afternoon, so let’s jump right into it. Here are three of my favorite player predictions via Sleeper for Thursday, June 20.
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Happy Thursday. It’s a limited MLB slate today, with just eight games on tap. Most in the afternoon, so let’s jump right into it. Here are three of my favorite player predictions via Sleeper for Thursday, June 20.
Get instant alerts when a line reaches your target via the BettingPros App >>
MLB Sleeper Picks Player Predictions
Sleeper Record: 111-58
We’ve found some success with Luis Arraez, so let’s return to another hitter strikeout prop. Like Arraez, Alex Bregman typically doesn’t miss the ball when he swings. He ranks in the 97th percentile in whiff% and 90th in K% this season - in line with his career marks. Today, he and the Astros take on Chris Flexen, who hardly ever strikes many out. He ranks in the 25th percentile in K% and 22nd in CSW% among all starters. Bregman only has two strikeouts in 18 plate appearances against him. The only pitcher in the White Sox pen he has faced is Michael Kopech, who has struck him out once in nine meetings. All told, at this price, Bregman looks like a worthwhile play.
Staying with the same game, let’s fade the Astros starter. Spencer Arrighetti was rocked by the Tigers in his last outing, recording just four outs, while allowing seven earned runs and striking out two. Now, facing the White Sox, he should in theory be able to find some strikeouts, but until he proves otherwise, I’m going to take a shot at fading him. While he does possess some strikeout-worthy stuff, he is under this in seven of 12 starts and ranks in the bottom 34th percentile in xFIP, fifth in BB% and sixth in batting average on balls in play (BABIP).
MacKenzie Gore has been great for Washington this year, but he draws a stiff test facing the Diamondbacks. They own the second-best wRC+ (123) and are 24th in K% (19.8%) when facing southpaws this season. Only three of the 24 left-handed starters to face them have exceeded this strikeout total, so let’s ride that trend and fade Gore here.
Make sure to check out our other best bets for Thursday:
Tyler is a featured writer at BettingPros. For more from him, follow @808Paperboi
