The Oklahoma City Thunder regained home-court advantage with a stunning win over the Indiana Pacers in Game 4 of the NBA Finals.
The Thunder and Pacers are tied 2-2 in the series. However, the Thunder will be at home for tonight’s Game 5 and, if necessary, will also be at home for Game 7.
Tonight’s game is super pivotal.
That said, this series has clearly shown it’s not about how teams start. Instead, it’s about how they finish. We’ll still want to pay attention to who scores the first basket. I added my favorite first-basket wager for tonight’s Game 5 below.
Follow along and make sure to check out our NBA First Basket Prop Bet Cheat Sheet for help identifying all of today’s best prop bets.
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Monday’s Best NBA First Basket Scorers Picks & Predictions
(Odds courtesy of FanDuel Sportsbook)
Who will score the first basket in today’s NBA games? We compare historical first-basket stats to prop bet odds to help identify today’s best bets. View first-basket odds across sportsbooks here.
Indiana Pacers vs. Oklahoma City Thunder
In Game 4, Chet Holmgren and the Thunder won the tip and scored first behind a Luguentz Dort driving layup. Holmgren has won the tip in all four games of the NBA Finals, and the Thunder have taken the first shot in each game.
There were times in these playoffs when the Thunder went with Isaiah Hartenstein for the opening tip. But as soon as the Thunder made the switch with Holmgren at center court to start the game, Oklahoma City has consistently won the opening tip.
The Pacers allowed the first basket to point guards and centers 24% of the time in the regular season. In addition, small forwards have scored first 22% of the time. In the regular season, Holmgren added a team-best 13 first baskets and scored the team’s first basket in 27% of games this season. He also attempted the Thunder’s first basket in 32% of games and scored the first basket in 16% of games.
Holmgren was easily the most consistent first-basket scorer for the Thunder this season. Plus, the Pacers allowed the center position to score the first basket in nearly 25% of games this season.
Therefore, let’s ride with Holmgren to score the first basket tonight. After all, no other player on the Thunder scored more than nine first baskets this season. Holmgren added 13 and started in all 82 games this season. He was also the only player to score the first basket in more than 12% of games for the Thunder during the regular season.
Additionally, Holmgren has already hit this prop once in this series, having scored the first basket in Game 3.
Pick: Chet Holmgren (+500)
