The NBA slate isn’t huge tonight, but there’s still some value in the first basket market tonight. I’m eying two spots that I’m ready to share below.
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Thursday’s Best NBA First Basket Scorers Picks
(Odds courtesy of DraftKings Sportsbook)
Who will score the first basket in today's NBA games? We compare historical first-basket stats to prop bet odds to help identify today's best bets. View first-basket odds across sportsbooks here.
Cleveland Cavaliers vs. Golden State Warriors
The Cavaliers will have Jarrett Allen for tonight’s tip. Allen has won the opening tip in 66% of games this season. In addition, the Cavaliers have scored first 61% of the time this year.
On the other hand, the Warriors will use Draymond Green. The undersized tip-man has won the tip in only 30% of games this year. As a result, the Warriors have scored first only 47% of the time this season.
It’s likely the Cavs win the tip and take the first shot.
That said, the Warriors have allowed the first basket to point guards 33% of the time and power forwards 30% of the time. Those are the two positions to target in this game for the Cavaliers.
Evan Mobley has scored 11 first baskets as the power forward for the Cavaliers. He’s scored the team’s first basket in 31% of games and has taken the first field goal attempt in 27% of games this season. At +650, Mobley is the play.
Pick: Evan Mobley (+650)
San Antonio Spurs vs. Los Angeles Clippers
The Spurs almost always win the opening tip with Victor Wembanyama. He’s won the tip 90% of the time and has helped the Spurs score first 55% of the time.
Tonight, he’ll battle Brook Lopez of the Clippers, who has added the opening tip in 59% of games. However, the Clippers have scored first only 46% of the time this season.
We’re rolling with the Spurs to get first possession and take the first shot.
The Clippers have allowed the first basket to shooting guards 27% of the time and small forwards 24% of the time.
Devin Vassell will likely play small forward to start the game. He’s scored the first basket ten times and has scored the Spurs’ first basket in 25% of games this season. He’s also added the team’s first field goal attempt in 22%, which is about the same as De’Aaron Fox’s rate.
Vassell is currently +700. There’s value there, especially for a guy who already has ten first baskets this season.
Pick: Devin Vassell (+700)
