When the NBA schedule makers set this contest they probably thought they were matching up the two teams most likely to meet in the 2019-20 NBA Eastern Conference Finals. After 31 games apiece, Milwaukee sits in first place in the NBA, while Philadelphia is currently the fifth seed in the East. If the standings remain the same, these two teams would likely meet in the semifinals as opposed to the Conference Finals. The consensus point spread for this contest opened at -1 on Philadelphia. This line gives the Bucks respect as the superior team (Vegas would have set the line at -3 if they deemed these two teams as evenly matched) but based on form, it is quite simply flabbergasting that the Bucks did not open as the favorites. Let’s dig in.
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Details
- Opening Lines: The consensus point spread for this contest opened at -1 on the Philadelphia 76ers. The consensus over/under total opened at 220.5 points. The point spread has held steady at -1. The over/under total has held steady at 220.5.
- Current Line: Philadelphia -1
- O/U: 220.5
- Location: Wells Fargo Center, Philadelphia, Pennsylvania
- Start Time: 2:30 PM EST, Wednesday, December 25th
- Last Meeting: Milwaukee defeated Philadelphia 128-122 - April 4, 2019
Overview
The Milwaukee Bucks are an incredible 27-4 on the season. Despite losing one of their top players in Malcolm Brogdon this offseason, the Bucks currently hold the best record in the NBA by two full games. After losing three of their first nine contests of the season, the Bucks have won 21 of their last 22 games. Their only loss was a trap game against a Dallas Mavericks team missing superstar point guard Luka Doncic. Giannis Antetokounmpo has stepped up his game this season. He has more than doubled his three-pointers made per game and has already sunk (52) as many this year as he did all of last season. He is shooting the three at a solid .342, just inches off his career-high from his rookie season when he hit 41 of 118 attempts for a .347 percentage.
Milwaukee appears set to cakewalk through the regular season and will attempt to change the conversation when it comes to Giannis' fit for postseason basketball. A key trade before the deadline could put the Bucks ahead of the Lakers and Clippers as favorites for the NBA title. One team they will likely have to face in the playoffs is the Philadelphia 76ers. They will get their first 2019-20 test against them on Christmas afternoon.
The 20-11 Philadelphia 76ers are still one of the top teams in the East but have taken a major step back without Jimmy Butler and J.J. Reddick. Losses to teams like Washington and Orlando only serve to accentuate that fact. Philadelphia, much like the Bucks, should cruise to the postseason. Kawhi Leonard's game seven heroics are the only thing that stopped this team from meeting Milwaukee in last year’s Conference Finals. Pairing Joel Embiid with Al Horford was always a questionable fit, and while the duo might make up one of the best frontcourts in the NBA, the union had resulted in Embiid's numbers dropping across the board.
Ben Simmons has also seen a production dip this season, with both his points and rebounds dropping below his rookie season marks. They are however now built to withstand Embiid's ever-present injury risk. Having Horford ensures that there will be a top tier big in the frontcourt regardless of Embiid's health. While it is still only the regular season, the 76ers can make a statement by beating a Bucks team in top form.
Trends
- Milwaukee is 18-13 ATS on the season.
- Milwaukee is 8-6 ATS on the road this season.
- Philadelphia is 14-15 ATS on the season.
- Philadelphia is 8-7 ATS at home this season.
- Milwaukee is 8-2 ATS in their last 10 contests.
- Milwaukee is 6-1 ATS in their last seven contests.
- Milwaukee is 6-1 ATS in their last seven contests as a favorite.
- Milwaukee is 5-2 ATS in their last seven contests as a road favorite.
- Milwaukee is 6-2 ATS in their last eight contests against teams with winning records.
- Philadelphia is 5-3-2 ATS in their last 10 contests.
- Philadelphia is 1-3-1 ATS in their last five contests.
- Philadelphia is 1-3-1 ATS in their last five contests against teams with winning records.
- Philadelphia is 0-4 ATS in their last four Wednesday contests.
- Philadelphia is 5-2 ATS in their last seven contests as an underdog.
- Over is 5-0 in Milwaukee's last five contests against teams with winning records.
- Over is 4-1 in Milwaukee's last five Wednesday contests.
- Over is 24-11 in Milwaukee's last 35 contests played on two days of rest.
- Over is 4-0 in Philadelphia's last four contests.
- Over is 4-0 in Philadelphia's last four home contests.
- Over is 4-1 in Philadelphia's last five contests as an underdog.
Prop Bets
Giannis rebounds over 11.5 (-136)
Giannis is likely going to have to play a full complement of minutes against Philadelphia. He is averaging 12.9 rebounds per game on the season and has cleared 11.5 in 18 of his 31 contests. 16 of those contests were games Giannis played more than 28 minutes in. He has only failed to clear this number in three of the contests that he logged 28 or more minutes in. The juice on this prop already has heavy juice due to arguably being the prop of the day. Lock this one in as a two-unit play at FanDuel before the juice creeps even higher.
Bottom Line
There is absolutely zero reasons that the Bucks should be one point underdogs for this contest. Yes, they are playing on the road against one of the better teams in the East, but the difference in talent and form between these two teams is vast. Milwaukee is one of the best teams in the entire NBA, while the 76ers may not even be one of the top three teams in the East. Milwaukee should be able to dominate this game from start to finish.
The 76ers are a poor 1-3-1 against the spread in their last five contests against teams with winning records and are going to have an incredibly tough time stopping Giannis and a Bucks team that is 6-2 against the spread in their last eight contests against teams with winning records. The consensus point spread for this contest should likely be closer to -3 on Milwaukee, and may very well get there by tip-off. Lock this one in as a single unit play at FanDuel before the spread sees unfavorable movement.
Pick: Milwaukee Bucks +1 (-106)
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Raju Byfield is a featured writer at BettingPros. For more from Raju, check out his archive, and follow him @FantasyContext.