Arguably, the most exciting day of the college basketball season takes place on Saturday, as the Final Four pits the regional winners against each other in a doubleheader for the right to play for the National Championship on Monday. Below you will find our top NCAA Tournament Final Four picks.
One of the matchups is a rematch of a game played earlier this season when UConn beat Illinois 74-61 at a neutral site at Madison Square Garden on November 28th.
Many are calling the other Final Four game the de facto National Championship, as Michigan and Arizona have been two of the most dominant teams for the entire season. It marks just the fifth time ever that two teams that won 35+ games meet in the Final Four, and Brandon Koretz explained the matchup’s other historical significance:
Michigan vs. Arizona in the Final Four is a matchup between the third and fourth-highest KenPom ratings ever.
1. 1999 Duke (+43.01)
2. 2025 Duke (+39.29)
3. 2026 Michigan (+39.02)
4. 2026 Arizona (+38.76)
5. 2001 Duke (+37.32)One of the biggest college basketball games ever.
— Brandon Koretz (@BrandonKoretz) March 31, 2026
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Best NCAA Tournament Final Four Picks
(Odds courtesy of DraftKings Sportsbook)
No. 3 Illinois Fighting Illini vs. No. 2 UConn/No. 1 Michigan Wolverines vs. No. 1 Arizona Wildcats
Both Final Four games are expected to be nail-biters, with neither favorite having a point spread bigger than 2.5 points. Instead of hemming and hawing about who will win or what the totals will be, I have decided on a five-point teaser, teasing up both underdogs at -130 odds is the best way to approach these matchups.
UConn led wire-to-wire in a 13-point win over Illinois in November and built as big as a 21-point lead in the second half. While Illinois was fully healthy for that matchup, the Huskies only got 10 minutes from Elite 8 hero Braylon Mullins, who was playing in his first game action of the season. In addition, Tarris Reed was limited to just 15 minutes after missing the prior two games.
UConn has now won 18 straight games in the Sweet 16 round or later, which is the second-longest such streak all-time behind UCLA’s 28 consecutive wins from 1964 to 1974. The Huskies are also 17-1 against the spread (ATS) in their last 18 NCAA Tournament games overall dating back to 2023.
Meanwhile, the Michigan versus Arizona line jumped the fence after the Wildcats initially opened as 1.5-point favorites. But this is likely Arizona’s best team in school history that already set a program wins record, and it has won its four NCAA Tournament games by an average of 20.5 points thus far.
Michigan is getting a lot of love after winning 15 games by double digits against top-50 EvanMiya teams. But Arizona’s 10 such wins are not far behind. I also like Arizona’s guard play much more, led by Big 12 Player of the Year Jaden Bradley, as opposed to Michigan’s Elliot Cadeau. The Michigan guard had four or more turnovers in big games against Iowa, Purdue and TCU, and a whopping eight against Nebraska.
Bet: UConn +7.5/Arizona +6.5 Teaser (-130)
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Mike Spector is a featured writer at BettingPros. For more from Mike, check out his archive and follow him @MikeSpector01.