Many people called the Final Four matchup between Michigan and Arizona the de facto National Championship, given that they were arguably the two best teams all season. If that’s the case, UConn may be in for a world of trouble, as the Wolverines’ 18-point victory (in which it played mostly without their best player) was tied for the largest in an NCAA Tournament game between No. 1 seeds since seeding began in 1979. That is not to totally discredit UConn, who is 18-1 against the spread (ATS) in March Madness since 2023, while its head coach is now 11-0 ATS in the Sweet 16 or later. Read on for our top NCAA Tournament National Championship PrizePicks predictions.
Monday’s Best NCAA Tournament National Championship PrizePicks Predictions
No. 2 UConn Huskies vs. No. 1 Michigan Wolverines
UConn head coach Dan Hurley dealt with the team’s loss to St. John’s in the Big East Tournament final well by reiterating to the media that he felt they always played their best basketball against non-conference opponents. It is easy to agree with that sentiment, as the Huskies are 57-3 in non-conference contests in their last 60 games, outside of being swept in Maui last year.
Many people called the Final Four matchup between Michigan and Arizona the de facto National Championship, given that they were arguably the two best teams all season. If that’s the case, UConn may be in for a world of trouble, as the Wolverines’ 18-point victory (in which it played mostly without their best player) was tied for the largest in an NCAA Tournament game between No. 1 seeds since seeding began in 1979. That is not to totally discredit UConn, who is 18-1 against the spread (ATS) in March Madness since 2023, while its head coach is now 11-0 ATS in the Sweet 16 or later. Read on for our top NCAA Tournament National Championship PrizePicks predictions.
Monday’s Best NCAA Tournament National Championship PrizePicks Predictions
No. 2 UConn Huskies vs. No. 1 Michigan Wolverines
UConn head coach Dan Hurley dealt with the team’s loss to St. John’s in the Big East Tournament final well by reiterating to the media that he felt they always played their best basketball against non-conference opponents. It is easy to agree with that sentiment, as the Huskies are 57-3 in non-conference contests in their last 60 games, outside of being swept in Maui last year.
There is a prevailing sentiment that to beat Michigan, a team has to go completely bonkers from the three-point line, as its size and physicality are too much to handle inside. However, two of the Wolverines’ three losses this season were to Duke and Purdue, who made a combined 10 of their 33 three-point attempts. It was just the home loss to Wisconsin, where the Badgers went nuclear from the perimeter, making 15 threes and outscoring Michigan by 21 from beyond the arc.
Per OptaSTATS, only twice has a team made 10+ three-pointers while having fewer than five turnovers in a Final Four game. Those two instances were from the Huskies, who accomplished the feat against Illinois and in 2024 when facing Alabama.
UConn’s defense also deserves a ton of credit for what it did to Illinois’ offense, which entered the Final Four as the most efficient offense in the country. The Fighting Illini’s three lowest point totals over the last three seasons were all versus UConn (52, 61, 62), and the two games against the Huskies this season were also the only two games in which Illinois didn’t score 65+ points.
My two PrizePicks predictions go hand in hand, with UConn staying close and one of its players going off from three-point range.
PrizePicks Predictions: Michigan to Win by 7 or Fewer Points & Alex Karaban to Make at Least 3 Three-pointers
Mike Spector is a featured writer at BettingPros. For more from Mike, check out his archive and follow him @MikeSpector01.
