The Patriots and Bills clash in a battle of undefeated AFC East teams on Sunday, with the winner gaining an early advantage in the divisional race. To get to 3-0, neither team has faced very much competition, with their opponents' combined records currently 1-17.
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Details
- Opening Lines: FanDuel had the odds open as Patriots -7.5; O/U 43.5. Not much has changed since then.
- Current Line: Patriots -7.5
- O/U: 42.5
- Location: New Era Field, Buffalo, New York
- Start Time: 1:00 pm ET
- Television: CBS
- Last Meeting: December 23, 2018 – The Patriots defeated the Bills 24-12 in New England.
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Overview
The Patriots are putting on a clinic this season by outscoring opponents 106-17. The defense has yet to allow a touchdown this season, with the only touchdowns scored against the Patriots being a fumble recovery and a pick-six thrown by rookie quarterback Jarrett Stidham. But while the performance on the field has been incredible as expected, there is no denying that the Patriots have been taking care of business against some of the NFL's worst. Through three weeks, the Patriots have yet to face a team that has recorded a win. But even if you're playing bad teams, if you're holding them to 105 yards of total offense like they did against the Jets on Sunday, you're clearly doing something right.
While everyone expected the Patriots to be undefeated at this point, there are very few who expected the Bills to be in the same boat heading into their Week 4 matchup. Josh Allen has led two fourth-quarter comebacks in the three victories and has made huge strides so far in his second season under center. The offense is fifth in the NFL in rushing yards per game, averaging 151.3. The running game has been by committee, with Frank Gore leading the team with 164 yards through three games.
The Bills' defense is fifth in total yards this season, allowing only 299.7 yards per game. First place in that category, of course, belongs to the Patriots who are allowing 199 per game. On paper, this looks like a defensive matchup, but the Bills have not faced an offense even close to the caliber of the Patriots, and Josh Allen is the best quarterback the Patriots have faced thus far.
Trends
- Both teams are 2-1 ATS this season.
- The Patriots are 6-1 ATS in their last seven games and 8-0 SU in their last eight games.
- The Bills are 4-1 ATS in their last five games and 5-1 SU in their last six games.
- The Patriots are 5-0 ATS in their last five road games in Buffalo.
- The total has gone under in 11 of the Patriots last 15 games.
- The total has gone under in five of the last seven games between Buffalo and New England.
- The Patriots are 4-1 ATS in their last five games against Buffalo.
Prop Bet
New England Patriots Winning Margin 14+ Points (+175)
The Patriots have owned the Bills of late, and while there is a lot to be excited about if you're a Bills fan, the Pats are still the kings of the AFC East. In the last two seasons, the Patriots have traveled to Buffalo and held the Bills' offense to a total of nine points, while scoring over 20 in each game.
Bottom Line
Who would have expected this to be a huge early-season matchup? Both teams are 3-0, but the Bills have gotten there by squeaking by against some unimpressive teams, which makes me think that they're not actually as good as their record. New England has won its last five matchups with the Bills by an average of 17.2 points. If this was -10, I'd still take the Pats. Tom Brady has weapons, and while the Bills defense is good, it's also untested.
Pick: Patriots -7 (-110)
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Philip Wood is a featured writer at BettingPros. For more from Philip, check out his archive and follow him @Phil_Wood_Jr.