The late-afternoon window on the Week 3 NFL slate features the game with the largest point spread. The winless New York Jets are catching double-digit points for their matchup at the Indianapolis Colts. The spread for this AFC East-AFC South showdown has steadily climbed throughout the week and may not be done moving just yet.
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Details
All odds taken from FanDuel Sportsbook.
- Opening Lines: Colts -6.5; O/U 45
- Current ATS Line: Colts -11.5
- Current Over/Under: 44
- Location: Lucas Oil Stadium - Indianapolis, IN
- Start Time: 4:05 p.m. ET
- Television: CBS
- Last Meeting: October 14, 2018 - The Jets defeated the Colts 42-34 in East Rutherford
- Attendance: A maximum of 7,500 fans will be allowed to attend
Overview
Just when it seemed like things couldn't get any worse for the Jets, they did. After taking a beating in Week 1 at the hands of the Buffalo Bills, a game that looked much closer on the final scoreboard than it actually was, the Jets were embarrassed at home by the banged-up San Francisco 49ers. New York surrendered an 80-yard touchdown run on the very first series and later allowed the Niners to convert on a third-and-31 attempt. Yikes.
A growing list of injuries seems to signify that the Jets' state of misery will be prolonged for at least the near future. Le'Veon Bell and Jamison Crowder, the most notable casualties from Week 1, were joined on the injury report this week by Breshad Perriman. With rookie Denzel Mims still on IR and yet to make his NFL debut, the Jets will trot out reserves at nearly every offensive skill position. That's right, Frank Gore, Chris Hogan, and Braxton Berrios will start in an NFL game this week. Sam Darnold doesn't have a chance.
Week 1 was also dismal for the Indianapolis Colts, who were upset by their AFC South rivals in Jacksonville. The Colts managed to rebound nicely in Week 2, earning a comfortable home win over the Minnesota Vikings. It was a run-heavy approach from the start, and you can expect a heavy dose of Jonathan Taylor once again this week. While New York was actually a strong defense against the run last season, there are several injuries throughout the defensive front. With their strong offensive line, the Colts should have no trouble pounding the ball up the middle.
If the Colts are going to contend in the division and AFC this year, they are going to need better performances from Phillip Rivers. The veteran free-agent acquisition has thrown one more interception (three) than touchdowns (two) through his first two games as a Colt. Parris Campbell is now set to miss time with a knee injury, so expect T.Y. Hilton and rookie Michael Pittman to see plenty of targets. Nyheim Hines and a returning Jack Doyle will also be regularly involved in the passing attack.
Trends
- Jets 2020 Betting Trends: 0-2 ATS; 2-0 to the Over.
- Colts 2020 Betting Trends: 1-1 ATS; 1-1 to the Over.
- The Jets are 4-1 ATS in their last five head-to-head meetings against the Colts.
- The Over has hit in seven of the last nine meetings between the teams.
Prop Bet
First Half Spread: Colts -6.5 (-110 at FanDuel Sportsbook)
All signs point to a lopsided affair in this one. If the Jets are going to wind up covering the large spread, the only way I see them getting it done is through a backdoor cover. So long as the Colts’ starters are on the field and playing with focus and intensity, Indianapolis is clearly the better team. This will assuredly be the case in the first half. The Colts should have no trouble building a sizable lead over the first 30 minutes. A first-half spread that doesn't even amount to a full touchdown truly feels like a layup.
Bottom Line
To put it simply, Adam Gase and the Jets have not given us any reason to feel good about backing them at the betting window. When you combine the impactful injuries, locker room dissension, and general talent mismatches together, it's hard to envision New York even being competitive against a Colts team whose strengths reside along the line of scrimmage on both sides of the ball.
The opening line of Colts -6.5 is long, long gone. Even so, 11.5 feels very coverable. After what we saw out of the Jets last week, I'd be comfortable laying up to two touchdowns with the Colts in this one (Colts -13.5 as an alternate spread has +100 odds at FanDuel Sportsbook). With that said, the regular spread is my game pick here.
Pick: Colts -11.5 (-110 at FanDuel Sportsbook)
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Henry John is a featured writer at BettingPros. For more from Henry, check out his archive and follow him @HankTimeSports.