We tie a bow on Week 1 of the 2026 NFL season in Kansas City, where QB Patrick Mahomes will be making his first start since tearing his ACL at the tail end of the 2025 season. But he isn’t the only QB returning from an injury in this game. Bo Nix got hurt in the playoff win over the Buffalo Bills before the AFC Championship Game. Denver went on to lose at home to New England without their QB1.
Both of these teams ended their 2025 seasons with an extremely sour taste in their mouths, so you better believe they’re chomping at the bit to start 2026 on a high note.
KC is a small home favorite because they have Mahomes… but do they really have “the” Mahomes we are all used to after the major knee injury?
Only one way to find out. Buckle up.
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NFL Week 1 Monday Night Football Betting Primer
Denver Broncos at Kansas City Chiefs
Betting Lines & Odds
Erickson’s Pick: Denver +2.5
Trends
- Denver has won 3 straight in this series - Jan. 5, 2025 (38-0), Nov. 16, 2025 (22-19), and Dec. 25, 2025 (20-13) - snapping a stretch where Kansas City had won 16 of the previous 17 meetings dating back to 2015.
- Denver went 9-9-1 ATS in the 2025 season, including 5-0-1 ATS as an underdog - the same underdog role they’re in on Monday night. 5 straight covers as an underdog.
- The underdogs have covered the spread in each of the Chiefs’ last nine games.
- The Chiefs have failed to cover the spread in their last eight games as favorites
- Denver is 1-5 toward the total as an underdog.
- Chiefs finished 1-8 O/U in 2025.
- Kansas City finished just 6-10-1 ATS in the 2025 season; at home specifically, they were 5-3-1 ATS.
- According to VSIN: Divisional road/neutral underdogs of 6.5 points or less are on an 18-16 SU and 22-12-1 ATS (64.7%) run since 2013.
Injuries
Chiefs
- QB Patrick Mahomes (KC) - knee; full participation, cleared to start. First game back since tearing his ACL on Dec. 15, 2025 against the Chargers.
- T Josh Simmons (KC) - back; did not participate all week. One of two starters who missed practice throughout.
- DB Chamarri Conner (KC) - knee; did not participate all week. The other starter who missed practice throughout.
Broncos
- OLB Jonathon Cooper (DEN) - placed on the NFL Commissioner’s Exempt List; will miss Week 1. Not an injury, but a real loss up front - 27 sacks over the last three seasons and one of Denver’s top pass rushers.
Overall
This line is so disrespectful to the Denver Broncos. Point-blank, they have a better roster than the Kansas City Chiefs. They won the AFC West last season, not the Chiefs. And that’s not just because the Chiefs lost Mahomes. They were not good before his injury.
Now, Denver was not without its faults, relying on a lot of second-half comebacks (12 to be exact). 11 one-score victories.
Two years ago, that team was the Chiefs. They completely sun ran in 2024 by winning every single one-score game. And predictably, that regressed massively in 2025 (1-9 in one-score games).
They also went 0-8 against playoff teams (Sharp Football).
KC lost major contributors in their secondary this offseason, including Trent McDuffie, Jaylon Watson, and Bryan Cook. Denver has a chance to attack this secondary with Nix and his surplus of pass-catchers…highlighted by 2026 trade acquisition, WR Jaylen Waddle.
CB Mansoor Delane is a super talented rookie. But he is still a rookie, and not McDuffie in Week 1. Veteran safety Chamarri Conner is also doubtful, creating a scenario with a lot of new starters in the Chiefs’ secondary – which is bound to experience growing pains.
This is a statement game/opportunity for Denver to put the rest of the AFC West on notice that the road to the division will go through Mile High…not Arrowhead or wherever the Chargers play their “home” games.
Not to mention, the Chiefs are likely to be without starting LT Josh Simmons.
A healthy Mahomes has at times struggled versus this elite defense.
Denver’s defense under DC Vance Joseph has given Mahomes trouble in the two most recent meetings specifically: 65.5% completion, 2 TDs, 1 INT, and 7 sacks combined across those two games.
The trends for both the Broncos/Chiefs lean HEAVILY toward the underdogs being the sharp play. I tend to agree across all facets.
Projecting Mahomes post-ACL injury is also a betting market I want to be part of. My best approach is taking the under on the pass attempts (listed at 32.5). The Chiefs GM Brett Veach said this offseason they don’t want Mahomes dropping back 50-60 times per game to start the year.
Translation…a lot of carries for free-agent acquisition, RB Kenneth Walker.
Pat Bryant had a quiet rookie campaign, finishing WR85 overall and WR98 in PPG across 15 games. He earned just an 8.7% target share and averaged 25.2 receiving yards/game with 7 red-zone targets inside the 20 - a modest but notable red-zone footprint for a player with such a small overall role.
Like all the Broncos pass-catchers, Bryant plays in a Denver offense that enters 2026 dead last in both vacated air yards and targets, leaving little room for volume growth unless somebody like Courtland Sutton takes a dramatic step backward.
But the rookie third-rounder got run as the 2025 season progressed for Denver, hauling in at least three catches in six straight games before getting hurt in the playoffs (corresponding with a massive uptick in routes run). Against Buffalo in the divisional round, Bryant caught all three of his targets for 32 yards on the opening drive before exiting with an injury.
After the top-2 WRs for Denver, Bryant seems like the best bet as the No. 3 option entering his second season.
By all accounts, he’s had a very strong training camp and is a candidate to eat into Sutton’s volume as early as Week 1. His best game as a rookie came against the Chiefs (5 catches for 82 yards).
Xavier Worthy has played 3 full games versus Denver in his two-year NFL career. His receiving yardage totals: 25, 11, and 0. Make him prove that he can beat you.
Take the under (S/O to Welsh for dropping this pick on the BettingPros Week 1 Prop Show). I’m tailing.
As for first TDs… get ready to Waddle. Jaylen Waddle is listed at 12-1…and nothing would please Sean Payton more than seeing his trade acquisition score in his first game against a bitter divisional rival in their house.
The transition to Davis Webb calling plays has been all about being more aggressive in attacking downfield…and I think Denver wastes no time against a new-look Chiefs’ secondary.
RB RJ Harvey was a TD machine last season (12 TDs), and I think his role around the RZ won’t change in 2026.