Black Friday features a Philadelphia team battling to regain offensive rhythm, hosting a Chicago squad trying to build on young quarterback momentum. The Eagles' defense thrives at home, while the Bears will lean on their run game to stay competitive.
Sportsbook Sync
- Bet recommendations built just for you.
- With Sportsbook Sync, you’ll get:
- All your bets are tracked in one dashboard
- Personalized recs based on your betting history
- ROI & bet-type insights to optimize your card
Black Friday Football
Chicago Bears at Philadelphia Eagles - Friday, 3:00 PM ET (Prime Video)
Erickson's Pick: Bears +7 (Tease Bears +10.5 and Game Total Under 52.5 points)
Confidence: ★★★★☆
Trends:
- The Eagles have won each of their last nine games against teams that held a winning record.
- The Bears have covered the spread in each of their last four games against teams that held a winning record.
- Each of the last four games between the Bears and Eagles has gone UNDER the total points line.
- The Eagles are 11-18-2 ATS when their defense allowed 20 or more points since the start of last season. They covered just 11 spreads when they allowed 20 points on defense.
- The Eagles are 19-5-2 ATS when their defense allowed fewer than 20 points since the start of last season (72%).
- The Bears have lost 11 of their last 14 road games following a win.
- The Eagles have won 18 of their last 19 games at Lincoln Financial Field against teams that held a winning record.
- The Eagles have covered the spread in each of their last seven games against teams that held a winning record.
- The Eagles have won each of their last nine games against teams that held a winning record.
- The Eagles are 6-10 O/U at home since the start of 2024 (<46 PPG).
- Nine of the Eagles' last 13 home games have gone UNDER the total points line.
- Philly is 4-7 ATS after a loss since 2023.
Overall:
Seven is way too many points given what Philly has looked like lately. The Eagles keep letting teams hang around; their run game hasn't popped (Saquon Barkley doesn't look like the same 2K rusher from last season), and the Bears have had a knack for covering close games.
Chicago has played seven of its 11 games by one score, whereas the Eagles have played in 8-of-11. Philly's average margin of victory is just 6.8 points (27th).
The preview vibe: this is one of the best early numbers on the board, taking Chicago +7 in a game Philly can win without fully separating.
The Bears get back some of their main secondary pieces on defense (Kyler Gordon and Jaylon Johnson), whereas the Eagles are banged up in their secondary without safety Andrew Mukuba. Also lean towards the Under, given how underwhelming points tend to be at the Linc.
Therefore, this might actually be a game worth teasing as well. Bears +10.5 and the Under at 52.5 points.
Colston Loveland scored and was efficient with four catches and 49 yards with a score last week. His routes increased to 67%, three or more catches in six straight games, and in Week 12, he played ahead of Cole Kmet, running more routes than the veteran TE. The rookie tight end is just good. Even in a tough matchup versus the Eagles, I think he can catch three balls.
Also, continue to bet the Under on DeVonta Smith’s receptions props. I've had this on the betting card all year. He typically falls short of 4.5 catches when both Dallas Goedert and A.J. Brown are healthy. Under in 11 of the last 15 games with his two teammates in the starting lineup. And better yet...he has never gone for 5-plus catches in consecutive games over this span. Hit the Over last week. Ergo...slam the under.
With the Bears also absent multiple starting linebackers, I’d expect the Eagles to run the football. But my angle is not for Barkley - but rather for the RB2 - Tank Bigsby. The former Jaguars RB is averaging over 9.0 yards per carry this season. 10-1 for his anytime TD versus the Bears - 30th in yards per carry allowed this season. A lot of smoke this week about Bigsby getting more involved, given Barkley's struggles on the ground this season.
Chicago is going to have issues stopping the run without several of their starting linebackers.
Props:
- Colston Loveland Over 2.5 Receptions
- DeVonta Smith Under 4.5 Receptions
- Tank Bigsby Anytime Touchdown (+1000)
Full Black Friday Card:
- Bears +7
- Bears +10.5 and Game Total Under 52.5 points (-110)
