Get ready for an NFL showdown like no other.
This Friday night on YouTube, the Chiefs and Chargers clash in Brazil, and BettingPros has you covered with an exclusive breakdown. I’m Andrew Erickson, here to deliver the insights and strategies you need to dominate this epic international matchup. From sharp picks to live betting leans, we’ll help you craft the perfect NFL same-game parlay for this standalone game. Consider this your VIP pass to the action before the full BettingPros Week 1 Primer drops into your newsfeed.
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Friday Night Football Betting Primer
Kansas City Chiefs vs. Los Angeles Chargers - Friday, 7:00 p.m. ET (YouTube, Brazil Game)
Market snapshot:
Erickson's Pick: No “official” play on sides or total (live bet opportunity) - targeting props only
Confidence: (1 out of 5)
Why:
- Neutral-site divisional game ?' volatility high.
- Kansas City has struggled against the spread (ATS) historically, but has still been winning outright consistently.
- The Chiefs play starters enough in the preseason to avoid slow starts.
- The Chargers have been much improved under Jim Harbaugh, but face offensive line concerns (Rashawn Slater out for the season).
- Both teams are missing key offensive pieces (Rashee Rice, Slater); the total feels sharp.
- Coaches hyping Patrick Mahomes' deep ball ?' expect vertical looks to Xavier Worthy and Marquise Brown.
Trends
Sides:
- The Chiefs have covered the spread in 14 of their last 20 games against teams that held a winning record.
- Kansas City has played five games with a +/- two-point spread since the 2023 Super Bowl. They won three times but lost against the Bills in the regular season and the Eagles in the Super Bowl
- The Chiefs have failed to cover the spread in 10 of their last 14 games.
- Chiefs starters have won 23 of their last 25 games.
- The Chiefs have won 18 of their last 19 games as favorites.
- The Chiefs have covered the spread in 14 of their last 26 games.
- The Chiefs have covered the spread in eight of their last 12 road games.
- The underdogs have covered the spread in 21 of the Chiefs' last 33 games.
- Kansas City is 9-11-1 as road favorites (43%).
- The Chiefs have won each of their last seven games against the Chargers.
- The Chargers went 12-6 ATS in 2024 in Jim Harbaugh's first season.
- The Chargers have covered the spread in five of their last six road games.
- The Chargers have covered the spread in nine of their last 12 games.
- The favorites have covered the spread in 14 of the Chargers’ last 18 games.
- The Chargers have won eight of their last nine games as favorites against AFC opponents.
- The Chargers have covered the spread in eight of their last 10 games against AFC opponents.
- The Chargers have been the first team to score 15 points in 10 of their last 14 games.
- The Chargers have scored first in seven of their last 10 road games.
- The Chargers have lost each of their last 11 games as underdogs.
Totals:
- Four of the Chargers' last five games have gone OVER the total points line.
- Five of the Chargers' last seven road games have gone UNDER the total points line.
- Eleven of the Chargers' last 20 games have gone UNDER the total points line.
- Twenty-one of the Chargers' last 33 games have gone UNDER the total points line.
- Twelve of the Chargers' last 20 road games have gone UNDER the total points line.
- The Chargers went 10-8 to the under in 2024.
- Both Chiefs-Chargers matchups last season went under the total (totals closed at 41 and 43 points).
- Sixteen of the Chiefs' last 27 games have gone UNDER the total points line (19 of the last 29).
- Since the start of 2023, the Chiefs have allowed just four teams (Bills twice) to score 27 points (Bills in Week 11, Bills in the AFC Championship Game, Panthers in Week 12, Broncos in Week 18, Eagles in the Super Bowl).
- Four of the Chiefs' last seven road games have gone OVER the total points line.
Overall
The Chiefs usually don't cover, and the Chargers usually don't win outright as underdogs. That suggests the best approach to betting this game is on the Chargers with the points on a neutral field as divisional underdogs (+3.5).
In fact, the best value is just to bet the Bolts on the Moneyline after last year's two matchups were settled by one score or fewer. In fact, the Chargers were the greatest underdogs to Kansas City than any other team they played in 2024.
Even so, Harbaugh's Chargers showed out last season in his first year as the head coach, although they did take advantage of an easier schedule (especially defensively). They went 1-4 as underdogs (twice versus Kansas City). Missing offensive tackle Rashawn Slater concerns me for the Chargers’ offensive line.
I think this game is closer to a coin flip (which you are never safe betting against Kansas City), so the sides are stay away (although the Bolts’ Moneyline remains the best option just based on the payout/odds, but not because I'm necessarily bullish on them to come away with the upset), playing on a neutral field.
I think the live betting opportunity here is to just take the Chargers if they fall behind early (+7.5, etc.). Chances are the Chiefs won’t blow them out (they usually don’t), and I’m fine backing L.A. with Justin Herbert forced to throw (keep an eye on right tackle Trey Pipkins).
As for the total, it’s a stay away. We are missing key offensive pieces from both offenses, and this matchup was not conducive to offensive points last season. Both matchups last season went under the total (lines closed at 41 and 43 points).
I took the under last year in Brazil, and it cooked me. Hence my hesitance.
Honestly, I think both the spread and total are sharp lines, so I'll get the majority of my action in the player props market - especially with Xavier Worthy.
The coaches have not stopped talking about trying to unlock Patrick Mahomes’ deep ball this offseason.
With no Rashee Rice, I expect Xavier Worthy to get fed (just like in the second half of last season). From Week 11 on, the former Texas standout averaged 14.6 fantasy points per game - WR8 fantasy production - while posting at least four receptions and 40+ yards in 10 consecutive contests.
Last season, the Chargers’ defense allowed the second-most receiving touchdowns on passes of 20+ air yards.
Leave the spread and total bets to the sharps this week. Bet the Xavier Worthy props and jump on the Bolts if the Chiefs indeed do open up with a big play. I love his first touchdown scorer odds of +800.
Prop Angles
- Chiefs head coach Andy Reid said Marquise Brown “should be fine” for Week 1.
- The Chargers allowed more than 59.5 receiving yards to an opposing wide receiver in 15 out of 17 games (88%) last season.
- Patrick Mahomes averaged 261.4 passing yards per game last season.
- The Chiefs allowed more than 45.5 rushing yards to an opposing running back in 12 out of 17 games (71%) last season. The Chargers struggled to run the ball in both matchups last season. They upgraded the position with a first-round pick in this year's draft in Omarion Hampton. The projections love the OVER on his 45.5 rushing yards prop line. With Najee Harris' role very ambiguous, expect Hampton to get fed. Harris will play, but to what extent is a total unknown based on all the time he missed this offseason with his eye injury.
- Justin Herbert averaged 17.5 rushing yards per game last season. The coaches have been constantly talking about his rushing potential in a fully healthy season.
- Second-rounder Tre’ Harris is still buried on the depth chart as the team’s No. 4 WR with Quentin Johnston fully cleared from concussion protocol.
- Keenan Allen anytime touchdown scorer (+280) and OVER on his receptions line of 3.5 are appealing. He just showed up a month ago and was already named a team captain by a new coaching staff. I’m slamming over on his receptions. Allen averaged 4.7 catches last season in a broken Bears offense and 8.3 catches with Herbert in 2023. Only once in 2023 was he held under 3.5 receptions in 13 games.
Erickson’s Props
- Patrick Mahomes: Over 240.5 Passing Yards
- Xavier Worthy: Over 58.5 Receiving Yards
- Xavier Worthy: Longest Reception Over 24.5 Yards (+100 on DraftKings Sportsbook)
- Omarion Hampton: Over 45.5 Rushing Yards
- Keenan Allen: Over 3.5 Receptions & Anytime Touchdown Scorer
- Tre’ Harris: Under 2.5 Receptions
PrizePicks Slips
- Patrick Mahomes/Xavier Worthy/Keenan Allen
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