We've made it to Week 15 of the NFL season. While some bankrolls are probably looking better than others at this point, it has certainly been a fun season. With so much unpredictability and chaos, one could argue that we've seen NFL line movement like never before. There are plenty more shifts in the betting market for Week 15, as teams have asserted themselves as contenders, pretenders, or just downright awful.
While instinct can lead bettors to back teams who are in desperate need of wins this time of year, history shows that this is far from a reliable system. My advice is simply to proceed with caution and handicap games just as thoroughly now late in the season as you did back in the first month. With this in mind, let's analyze some of Week 15's biggest line moves.
Line Movement Analysis for Week 15
Refer to the side-by-side comparison of consensus opening lines and current odds for all Week 15 games in the table below. For games that have experienced especially significant or interesting movement, analysis of and reasoning for the changes are included in the sections below.
Odds courtesy of FOXBet
Week 15 Point Spread Movement Analysis
Buccaneers at Falcons
The Move: Opening spread of Buccaneers (-1.5) shooting up to Buccaneers (-5.5)
The Buccaneers have garnered a lot of respect from sharp bettors this week for a team that was outgained in terms of total yardage and nearly doubled up in time of possession last week. Tampa Bay escaped with a win over the Vikings thanks to an atrocious kicking day from Dan Bailey. But for a team that went into their bye on a two-game skid, should a spread really be moving four points in their favor? I know the Falcons aren't attractive right now either, but they are a divisional home dog here.
Bears at Vikings
The Move: Opening spread of Vikings (-6) down to Vikings (-3)
The Bears snapped out of their six-game losing skid in a big way last week and the betting market has responded. The win combined with Minnesota's loss leaves both teams at 6-7 coming into this contest and has caused the point spread to drop all the way to a field goal margin. The best value on the Bears is long gone, but I have to say I'd prefer to have points in my pocket either way when it comes to this NFC North divisional matchup.
Browns at Giants
The Move: Opening spread of Browns (-3) up to Browns (-4.5)
Despite coming into this Sunday night game on the heels of a loss, the Browns have seen the market swing in their favor as the road favorite. Cleveland played the Ravens as tough as can be last week, while the Giants flopped in a big way at home against the Cardinals. I'd tend to believe this line move is more a reaction to what the Giants are not than what the Browns are, especially given Cleveland's horrendous secondary.
Week 15 Totals Movement Analysis
Odds courtesy of FOXBet
Patriots at Dolphins
The Move: Opening total of 43 down to 41.5
Despite an ugly performance last week, the Patriots have been taking sharp money as the road underdog for this critical AFC East matchup. As the point spread has narrowed in their favor, the total has also dipped. For those reading between the lines, lower totals tend to coincide with shorter spreads. At 41.5, it is the second-lowest over/under line on the Week 15 board.
Both New England and Miami are anchored by their defensive units and it’s anyone's guess as to whether Cam Newton or Tua Tagovailoa will be able to solve the puzzle staring back at them from across the line of scrimmage. One other tidbit of note: Bill Belichick-coached teams are 20-5 straight up when facing rookie quarterbacks.
Eagles at Cardinals
The Move: Opening total 48 up to 49.5
Despite both the Eagles and Cardinals putting together tremendous defensive performances last week, the total for this game has still risen a full point and a half. The spread has only ticked up a half-point in favor of Arizona, but that's also interesting in its own right given that the Eagles looked the best they have in weeks with rookie QB Jalen Hurts making his first career start. The two moves put together seem to suggest a big day for the Cardinals’ offense, but I'd be careful about rushing to back the Over steam if knocking Philadelphia's defense is my only angle for doing so.
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Henry John is a featured writer at BettingPros. For more from Henry, check out his archive and follow him @HankTimeSports.