NFL Monday Night Football Primer & Picks: Week 2

Week 2 wraps up with a Monday Night Football doubleheader featuring two intriguing AFC showdowns: Buccaneers vs. Texans and Chargers vs. Raiders. From expert insights on the spread and total, to live-betting opportunities and can't-miss player props, I'll help you craft the perfect Same Game Parlay (SGP) to close out what we hope is a profitable betting week.

Get ready, folks - it's time to place those bets. And like Joey P always says…don’t be a tool. Use the tools (like the BettingPros prop bet cheat sheet).

Let's dive into my top picks, best bets, and player props for Monday Night Football.

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Monday Night Football Betting Primer (Week 2 Double-Header)

Tampa Bay Buccaneers at Houston Texans – Monday, 7:00 PM ET - ESPN

BettingPros Consensus Odds:

Erickson’s Pick: Bucs +2.5 (Live bet total) and (Bucs +7.5 & Over 37.5)

Confidence: ★★★★★ (5 out of 5)

Why:

Tampa Bay Buccaneers QB Baker Mayfield historically thrives as a road underdog.
Buccaneers handled Week 1 well; this profile fits Baker's betting trend.
Texans still have major offensive line issues.
Lean: Buccaneers + points - value aligns with Mayfield's split trend.

Trends

Sides:

The Buccaneers are 14-5 ATS on the road
Since 2023, Baker Mayfield's Buccaneers are 7-7 straight up as road underdogs.
- 11-3 ATS (79%) as road underdogs.
The Buccaneers have covered the spread in seven of their last 11 games.
The Texans have failed to cover the spread in 10 of their last 21 games and are 8-11-1 ATS since the start of 2024.
Since 2023, Houston is 4-6-1 as a home favorite ATS (40%).
Thirteen of the Texans' last 20 wins have been by seven or fewer points.

Totals:

Seven of the Buccaneers’ last eight road games following a win have gone OVER the total points line.
Four of the Buccaneers’ last six games have gone OVER the total points line.
Thirteen of the Texans’ last 19 games have gone UNDER the total points line.
Eight of the Texans' last nine games as home favorites have all ended UNDER the total points line.
They are 2-7 O/U at home (Under 43.5 points per game).
Seven of the Texans' last 11 games as favorites have gone UNDER the total points line.
The Texans are 6-13 O/U at home since 2023. As a home favorite? 3-8 (27%).

Overall

I cannot guarantee a Buccaneers' upset victory, but I feel great about them covering the spread here. Baker Mayfield's track record as a road underdog is outstanding, and I hardly feel they are overmatched. Yes, the Texans’ defense is top-tier, but Mayfield has great offensive weapons to work with, and he's not afraid to use his legs when he needs to.

According to Next Gen Stats, Mayfield was pressured on 40.5% of his dropbacks in Week 1, his 2nd-highest pressure rate in a game since the start of last season.

When pressured, Mayfield scrambled three times for 35 yards. Last season, Mayfield scrambled on 13.5% of his pressure dropbacks, the 2nd-highest rate among qualified quarterbacks; he gained 211 rushing yards on such scrambles (2nd-most).

Both QBs are going to see pressure in this game, and it's just a matter of how each reacts in the face of defenders. If the pass rush/blitz can't get home, I'd imagine that these QBs will look to pick up chunk yardage downfield.

That's what happened when these teams faced back in 2023( that ended 39-37. The Bucs lost but covered the 2.5-point spread. I wouldn't be surprised to see a similar score margin in Week 2.

From a total perspective, this definitely has a look and feel of an under play. Texans’ home games typically follow this pattern, but these QBs can make off-script plays, and these defenses can force turnovers that can lead to short fields. I think a live betting opportunity on the total if it falls into the mid-30s might be a sharp way to play this game.

Again, if we are looking at SGP, this outcome, you take Buccaneers +7.5 and the Over at 37.5 points at -105.

Prop Angles

Bad offensive lines don't travel. There's a reason why C.J. Stroud is 7/9 toward his passing yards prop OVER at home and 6/10 toward the UNDER on the road since the start of last season. Everybody knows you can throw on the Buccaneers. The last time Stroud faced Tampa Bay? He threw for 470 yards.
When Stroud goes over his passing yards prop, it's because Nico Collins also goes off.
Collins has scored at least one touchdown in seven of his last eight home appearances.
C.J. Stroud has thrown two or more touchdowns in four of the Texans’ last five games as favorites following a road loss.
Nick Chubb (for better or worse) is the Texans' bell cow. I like his 1st TD odds at longer than 7-1. Texans will have a chance to score first, and a pass interference in the end zone will put Houston on the 1-yard line.
Keep an eye on the WR props for the rookies on the Texans. All three of the Falcons’ ancillary players - Kyle Pitts, Casey Washington, and Ray-Ray McCloud went over their yardage expectations last week.

Erickson’s Props:

Los Angeles Chargers at Las Vegas Raiders – Monday, 10:00 PM ET - CBS

BettingPros Consensus Odds:

Erickson’s Pick: Chargers -3 (Lean over 46.5)

Confidence: ★★★ (3 out of 5)

Why:

The Raiders got past New England, but they didn't completely dominate. Now the opponent quality steps up here.
The Chargers beat Kansas City convincingly and look more balanced offensively, with the passing game taking advantage of the preferred matchup.
Justin Herbert is expected to have success attacking LV's secondary like he did versus the Chiefs.
Lean: Chargers - better team, even on the road.

Trends

Sides:

The Raiders have lost each of their last six games against AFC West opponents.
The Raiders have lost 11 of their last 12 games as underdogs.
The Raiders have lost 11 of their last 14 games.
Their opponents have scored first in each of the Raiders' last seven home games.
The Raiders are 14-9-1 ATS at home over their last 24 games. They are 5-6-1 as home underdogs ATS but just 2-9 straight up.
The favorites have covered the spread in each of the last six games between the Chargers and Raiders.
The Chargers are 13-6 ATS since the start of 2024 with Jim Harbaugh as HC.
The Chargers have covered the spread in six of their last seven road games.
The Chargers have covered the spread in 10 of their last 13 games.
The favorites have covered the spread in 14 of the Chargers' last 19 games.
The Chargers have won eight of their last nine games as favorites against AFC opponents.

Totals:

Each of the Chargers’ last six games has gone OVER the total points line.
Six of the Raiders’ last seven games have gone UNDER the total points line.
Seventeen of the Raiders’ last 28 games have gone UNDER the total points line.
- 20-14 toward the Under.
Seven of the Raiders’ last 10 home games have gone OVER the total points line.
The Raiders finished 5-3 toward the OVER at home in 2024.

Overall

Both of these teams are coming off impressive wins as underdogs away from home. So naturally, there's excitement on both sides as they look to stay ahead of the Chiefs atop the AFC West standings. Still, I can't help but think the Chargers' win over KC in Brazil was just flat-out better. The Raiders were losing to the Pats at halftime.

Justin Herbert blew me away. At 100% health, we are finally seeing the same guy we saw earlier in his career. The Bolts swept the Raiders last season, and I think Week 2 extends the streak to 3-0.

As for the total, I am going with the Over. Both of these QBs got the chance to COOK in Week 1, ranking 1st and 3rd in pass rate over expectation. That's a recipe for points under pristine dome conditions on Monday Night. I'd also expect to see more explosive plays from each team's rookie first-round RB.

Just be sure to wait for confirmation that tight end Brock Bowers is playing. He would be a substantial loss to the Raiders offense (and more reason to get on the Chargers at -3).

Prop Angles

Ashton Jeanty forced five missed tackles (t-2nd most by any rusher) on 19 carries in Week 1, for a 27.8% MTF rate that easily outpaced Raiders rushers from last season (19.5%). However, he concluded his NFL debut with an average of only 2.0 yards per carry and 1.8 yards after contact, falling well below the NFL averages for rookie running backs last season (4.2 YPC, 3.4 after contact) - Next Gen Stats.
Jeanty had nowhere to run last week, but that won't be the case in Week 2. The Chargers ranked dead last in EPA per rush in Week 1. Most rushing yards allowed before
Justin Herbert averaged 17.5 rushing yards per game in 2024. In Week 1, he rushed for 32 yards. The last time he faced the Raiders...he rushed for 42 yards.
Michael Mayer got tackled at the 3-yard line before an Ashton Jeanty TD. With Bowers missing time, he sees more opportunities, especially in the red zone.
Ladd McConkey has 74-plus receiving yards in 8 of his last 10 games played. He also went for 95 yards the last time he faced the Raiders.

Erickson’s Props:

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