Once again, I’m using DraftKings Sportsbook for props because of the volume they have to choose from. Still, I suggest that you do some line shopping for more favorable player totals across multiple sportsbooks if you have time. For instance, finding a lower yardage number for a player prop you like enhances your odds of cashing the over. Conversely, if you want an under and find a higher yardage total, the same idea applies.
Let’s take a look at a few player props for Divisional Round Saturday that caught my attention.
Joe Mixon Under 59.5 Rushing Yards (-115)
The Bengals won their first-round playoff matchup with the Raiders, squaring off with the Titans now in the Divisional Round. However, despite operating in a good game script for most of their Wild Card game, Mixon inefficiently rumbled for only 48 yards on 17 carries.
In fact, inefficiency has been a running theme for Mixon down the stretch. According to Pro-Football-Reference, Mixon has fallen short of 4.0 yards per rush attempt in his last six games, clearing 59.5 rushing yards in only one of those games. Yikes.
The matchup isn’t optimal for him turning it around this week. The Titans allowed the second-fewest rushing yards per game (84.6). Moreover, according to Pro-Football-Reference, the Titans held running backs to only 3.79 yards per rush attempt. So, let’s hop on his under this week.
Ja’Marr Chase Over 76.5 Receiving Yards (-115)
The Titans aren’t nearly as good defending the pass as the run, yielding the eighth-most passing yards per game (245.2). Sure, assuming logical coaching can be a costly mistake. However, Zac Taylor has wisely asked Joe Burrow to carve up opposing defenses in favorable matchups this year. Thus, I think he’ll wisely turn the reigns over to Burrow again for this game.
That would be ideal for Burrow’s top wideout, Ja’Marr Chase. Excluding a meaningless Week 18 game in which Chase played only five offensive snaps, he has exceeded 115 receiving yards in his last three games. Additionally, he’s gone over 76.5 receiving yards in nine of 17 games if you, again, exclude Week 18.
The matchup is good for Chase as well. The Titans coughed up the second-most receiving yards to wideouts (3,210) in the regular season, good for 188.8 receiving yards per game. As a result, the projections at FantasyPros call for Chase to smash his yardage prop, projecting 94.6 receiving yards. Further, if you enjoy same-game parlays, I encourage you to use Mixon’s under and Chase’s over, as they correlate.
Ja’Marr Chase Leads the Divisional Round in Receiving Yards (+1000)
If Chase surpasses his receiving yardage prop like I suggest he will above, he’ll probably be among the leaders in receiving yards in the Divisional Round. However, he has the chops to not only be among the leaders but be the overall leader for receiving yards this round.
The rookie’s ceiling is demonstrably through the roof. According to Stathead, Chase’s 266 receiving yards against the Chiefs in Week 16 were the highest mark in the NFL this year by 60 receiving yards. Further, his 201 receiving yards in Week 7 were the third-most in a game this season. For giggles, he added the 19th-highest receiving yardage total in Week 5 with 159. Therefore, Chase can erupt in a way few of his peers can. With that in mind, it’s worth throwing a small wager on his +1000 line for a tasty payout if he blows up this week.
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