The PROPS PROPHET HAS RETURNED as the UNDERTAKER.
Welcome to Andrew Erickson's (AKA the Props Prophet/Undertaker) Week 2 NFL player prop bets, where we dissect matchups, statistics, and trends to unearth the best player props to target. In this guide, we'll navigate the intricate landscape of player props, exploring enticing wagers, insightful predictions, and strategies to help you gain the upper hand in your Week 2 betting. Let's go!
Erickson's Week 2 NFL Player Prop Bets
Gardner Minshew OVER 19.5 completions
Gardner Minshew completed 25 passes for 257 yards in Week 1. His BP projection has him slated for 21.4 completions well ahead of his 19.5 completions line. The Raiders are littered with playmakers, and OC Luke Getsy is designing this offense for Minshew to deal with/distribute. Minshew posted the league's lowest aDOT (4.7) in Week 1 to go with a 76% completion rate. The Raiders also posted the fifth-highest PROE in Week 1. The Ravens also may be without first-round rookie CB Nate Wiggins after he missed Thursday’s practice with a neck injury.
Lamar Jackson UNDER 29.5 passing attempts
Against teams like the Raiders, I could very much see the Ravens taking their foot off the gas. This is a spot where Derrick Henry could feast, but it might not be till the second half that we see the Ravens pull away. Regardless, the strength of the Raiders is still their defense, and Baltimore's dropback passing game is still a work in progress. Despite the big plays they allowed against the run, LV’s defense only allowed 11 first downs against the Chargers.
It's exactly why you should fade Jackson's passing attempts prop (29.5), given they can feed Henry in the second half playing at home. Lamar went over 30 pass attempts thrice at home last season. One was in last year's AFC Championship game, and the other two games went into overtime. He's not throwing 30-plus times versus Las Vegas.
Rashid Shaheed OVER 39.5 receiving yards
When it comes to Rashid Shaheed and his boom games, the process is simple. Versus man coverage teams, you fade him. Versus zone coverage teams (like Carolina last week), you take the over on him. The Dallas Cowboys played the 4th-most zone coverage among defenses in Week 1 per FantasyPoints data (84%).
Baker Mayfield OVER 260.5 passing yards
Mayfield has passed for over 261.5 passing yards in 6 of his last eight games played.
Amari Cooper OVER 57.5 receiving yards
Amari Cooper had a quiet Week 1, catching only 2 of his 9 targets for 16 yards (20% target share, 95% route participation). Watson missed him deep for a walk-in touchdown. He was targeted twice in the red zone. Over 100 air yards. You know what to do. Cooper's boom-or-bust mantra remains undefeated. Buy. Low. The Jaguars just placed starting CB Tyson Campbell on IR. Safety Darnell Savage is also banged up. In 2023, Cooper posted six games with 34 or fewer receiving yards. In the other nine games he went over 77 receiving yards. When you bet Cooper props, you bet the alternative number. Especially with David Njoku out for Week 2.
Jerome Ford OVER 3.5 receptions
The Jaguars allowed the most catches to RBs in 2023. That trend continued in Week 1, with De'Von Achane catching 7 balls. Jerome Ford was effective in the passing game versus Dallas, catching 6 of 7 targets for 25 yards (23% target rate). But he only rushed for 44 yards. IN the first half alone, he had 4 carries for 11 yards. Jacksonville locked down the Dolphins' ground game in Week 1. Expect more of the same in Week 2 with dump-offs coming in bunches.
Daniel Jones OVER 19.5 completions
As bad as Daniel Jones was last week, he still completed 22 passes on 42 attempts. The Week 2 line is set at 19.5 completions against the league’s worst secondary (Washington Commanders).
Wan'Dale Robinson OVER 4.5 receptions
Robinson has gone over 35.5 receiving yards in three straight games. He's gone over 4.5 receptions in three straight games. His prop in Week 1 is listed at plus money. In Week 1, Robinson was heavily involved, seeing a game-high 12 targets and catching six for 44 yards, with 10 YAC, making up 29 percent of the team's target share (35% target rate). Robinson also led the Giants with three red-zone targets. Malik Nabers also popped up on the injury report on Thursday. I love Wan’Dale’s odds for an anytime TD at +290.
Malik Willis UNDER 168.5 passing yards
Jordan Love threw for 182 yards or fewer in three of his first six starts last season. Expect Malik Willis to underwhelm as a passer with virtually no time to learn the offense or build chemistry with his receivers.
Colby Parkinson OVER 28.5 receiving yards
Tight end Colby Parkinson, who played 88% of the offensive snaps, caught 4 of 5 targets for 47 yards in Week 1 for the Rams. Parkinson saw elite-level usage for a fantasy-viable tight end running a route on 82% of the team's offensive dropbacks. Bet the over on his receiving yards. We should see plenty of two TE sets to mitigate the injuries on the Rams' OL, putting Parkinson into a solid spot.
Courtland Sutton UNDER 37.5 receiving yards
Courtland Sutton finished last week with just 38 receiving yards despite 12 targets from Bo Nix. With a projected matchup versus star Steelers CB Joey Porter Jr., I'm concerned Sutton could get completely blanked in this spot.
Tank Dell OVER 4.5 receptions
Tank Dell failed to go over 3.5 receptions for the first time since Week 9 of last season in Week 1. But in Week 1, Dell still saw plenty of volume. Seven targets and 116 air yards. Buy low.
Anytime TD/1st TD Bets
Check out our Anytime TD and First TD reports to help guide your touchdown betting for Week 2.
DeVaughn Vele anytime TD (+750)
The number one anytime TD bet in the NFL Prop Bet Analyzer. Crazy? Potentially. But hear me out. The Steelers are a slot-funnel defense. This was the case last season and in Week 1. Ray-Ray McCloud’s status as the Falcons WR1 was not by accident. He’s Atlanta’s slot receiver. Denver’s slot receiver is rookie DeVaughn Vele. Vele was highly efficient in Week 1, catching all eight of his targets for 39 yards, with 23 yards after the catch (YAC), representing 19 percent of the target share - a 31 percent target rate for the Day 3 rookie. If he misses the game (on the injury report) pivot to Marvin Mims. Mims would inherit the slot role (I think as Sean Payton is unpredictable).
Wan'Dale Robinson anytime TD (+260)
See the analysis above.
