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NFL Sunday Night Football Betting Primer: Colts vs. Chiefs Picks

Author image by Andrew Erickson | @AndrewErickson_ | Sep 19, 2026
Author image by Andrew Erickson | @AndrewErickson_ | Sep 19, 2026
NFL Sunday Night Football Betting Primer: Colts vs. Chiefs Picks

Another Kansas City Chiefs primetime game. Gear up for those Taylor Swift cameos. But this time, Kansas City will tie a bow on the NFL Week 2 Sunday slate, hosting the Indianapolis Colts in a rematch of an overtime thriller (23-20 final). Both teams got their QB1s back in Week 1 after losing them to season-ending injuries in 2025. Everything you need to know about that and more can be found in this week’s NFL Sunday Night Football betting primer.

The Chiefs’ and Colts’ passing games were shaky, finishing 21st and 30th, respectively, in expected points added (EPA)/pass attempt. Both teams relied heavily on the ground game, ranking first and seventh, respectively, in EPA/rush attempt, which I expect will be the same approach on Sunday.

Running Backs don’t matter? Not in this Sunday Night Football matchup. Let’s rip some player props and - a spoiler - ride YET another primetime UNDER.

Primetime games are 1-4 to the over/under so far in 2026, with the one over result coming from Bills-Lions on Thursday.

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NFL SAME GAME PARLAY WIZARD

NFL Sunday Night Football Betting Primer: Colts vs. Chiefs Picks

Indianapolis Colts at Kansas City Chiefs

Betting Lines & Odds

Erickson’s Pick: Under 46.5 Points (-110)

Trends

  • Chiefs O/U 2025-26 combined: 4-14 - a very heavy UNDER trend, worth weighing against the 46.5 total; 6-14 at home since 2024.
  • Colts O/U 2025-26 combined: 10-8. Colts ATS as road underdog since 2023: 10-6.
  • The Colts are on an eight-game straight up (SU) losing streak (since 11/23/25, extended by Week 1 2026).
  • The Chiefs snapped a six-game SU losing streak (closing out 2025) with the Week 1 win over Denver - also single-sourced but consistent with contemporaneous reporting on the skid at the time.
  • Kansas City is now on a six-game UNDER streak.
  • Recent meetings have been tight:
    • 11/23/25: Chiefs won 23-20 (overtime)
    • 9/25/22: Colts won 20-17
    • 10/6/19: Colts won 19-13
  • Per DraftKings Sportsbook, underdogs have covered the spread in nine of the Chiefs’ last 10 games.

Injuries

  • Patrick Mahomes returned in Week 1 wearing a personal knee brace, cleared with no injury designation, and scored a rushing touchdown on Kansas City’s first drive.
  • Andy Reid says he expects LT Josh Simmons and CB Chamarri Conner to be OUT on Sunday versus the Colts.
  • WR Alec Pierce expected to play after missing Thursday’s practice (heel).

Overall

The Chiefs’ heavy UNDER trend - 4-14 combined the last two seasons, 6-14 at home since 2024, and now a live six-game current UNDER streak - is the standout number in this entire game. It cuts directly against a somewhat bloated total of 46.5 points.

Jonathan Taylor showing out in Week 1 (98 yards, two touchdowns), even in a loss, gives Indianapolis a legitimate way to control tempo and lean into that UNDER profile. But Kansas City is prepared to hone in on stopping the run.

Per NFL Next Gen Stats (NGS), Kansas City allowed the second-fewest rushing yards of any team in Week 1 (61 versus Denver), with no Broncos rusher or receiver reaching 50 scrimmage yards. Only two running backs have rushed for 100+ yards in a game against the Chiefs since 2024 (James Cook and Tony Pollard).

Taylor averages over 100 yards per game at home. But on the road, that number dips to 78.5 rushing yards per game. In his last trip to Kansas City, he totaled just 58 rushing yards.

I like the UNDER here more than I like either side. Because unless Taylor was breaking a run, I was unimpressed by the Colts’ offense last week. Alec Pierce is still not 100%, and he’s their big-play threat. Indianapolis’ offensive line allowed a 53% pressure rate in Week 1.

With the total sitting around 46.5 and both passing games facing real questions, the UNDER is one of my better bets of the week.

Speaking of UNDERS, I’m stealing this prop from Welsh: Daniel Jones UNDER 32.5 pass attempts.

Jones went OVER this number only twice in his last 10 games and UNDER in nine out of 13 games with the Colts last season. Only once has Jones thrown 33+ pass attempts during his entire tenure in Indianapolis.

Needless to say, Shane Steichen doesn’t want Jones dropping back to throw 33+ times in any matchup, barring something nuts game-script-wise. Keep in mind that in last week’s negative game script, Jones attempted only 31 passes.

Somehow, Kenneth Walker III didn’t score the Chiefs’ first touchdown in Week 1 - Patrick Mahomes scrambled in for it. Walker ended up scoring twice later in the game, and I think it’s safe to presume he will see plenty of red-zone work against the Colts’ defense.

According to NGS, Indianapolis allowed 112 yards and three touchdowns on 18 outside zone carries in Week 1. It was the first game since Week 12, 2020 (against Derrick Henry) in which the Indianapolis defense allowed more than six yards per carry on at least 10 outside zone carries.

They were just the fourth defense since 2018 to allow three or more scores on such concepts. Walker totaled 419 rushing yards (ninth-most in the NFL) and 16 explosive runs (fourth-most) on outside zone runs last season. He recorded seven carries for 45 yards in that concept in Week 1.

Props