NFL Sunday Night Football Betting Primer (Steelers vs. Packers)

Week 8's primetime showcase is a clash of two classic franchises with Aaron Rodgers facing off against his old team. The Steelers' defense has been Swiss Cheese, while Jordan Love and the Packers are still searching for rhythm in the passing game. Expect a back-and-forth contest in the mid-40s with plenty of prop edges on passing TDs, receptions, and RB receiving yards.

Our BettingPros 5-Star Prop System enters Week 8 with +93 units won and an ROI north of 13%, and the yardage prop subset has quietly gone 71.8% ATS (38% ROI).

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Sunday Night Football Betting Primer

Pittsburgh Steelers vs Green Bay Packers - Sunday, 8:20 PM ET (NBC)

Erickson's Pick: Steelers +3.0

Confidence: ★★★★☆

Trends:

The Packers have scored the first touchdown in each of their last nine games against AFC opponents.
The Steelers have been the first to 10 points in each of their last six games.
The Packers have failed to cover the spread in nine of their last 10 games as favorites against AFC opponents.
The Packers are 0-5 ATS in their last five road games.
The home team has covered the spread in six of the Packers’ last seven games.
Since 2023, the Packers have been 21-4-1 when they allowed fewer than 23 points on defense and 17-9 ATS. Green Bay is 4-14 ATS when they allowed 23+ points on defense.
Four of the Steelers’ last five games against NFC opponents have gone OVER the total points line.
The Steelers have failed to cover the spread in eight of their last 11 games.
The Steelers are 11-4 ATS with rest advantage (73%) since 2022 (second-best).
The Steelers as home underdogs since 2023: 6-3 ATS (67%). 10-4-1 since 2021.

Overall:

Trust the process. Mike Tomlin is an underdog. And when you layer in other factors such as Mike Tomlin as a home underdog, with rest advantage after a loss…I’m positive this is a +EV Bet.

Terrell Furman laid out the best case for it on our Best Bets show for Week 8.

After a loss, Mike Tomlin is 65-42 straight up (60%), 59-47-1 ATS (56%). After the loss and a dog: he's 21-15-1 ATS (58%). After a loss and as a home dog, Mike Tomlin is 8-3 straight up, 9-3-1 ATS (75%). This is the spot.

And I added fuel to the fire by citing how poor the Packers have been as road favorites. Last five road games for the Packers, they are 0-5 against the spread. So I can't guarantee that Pittsburgh wins outright at home against Green Bay. I do think Green Bay is the superior team, but I don't think they're going to win this game by a lot.

But even so….this Steelers defense is Swiss cheese. They can't get pressure or stop quick/short passes.

I expect Jordan Love to lead the Packers’ passing game (3rd in passing EPA) to production against Pittsburgh’s pass defense that ranks second in yards allowed. Every single QB they have faced has hit their passing yards prop. 218-plus. And yes, that includes Justin Fields.

Dillon Gabriel is the only QB to not hit at least two passing TDs vs. PIT this season. The Steelers are allowing the 8th-highest passing TD rate.

Per Next Gen Stats, the Steelers defense has utilized a single-high safety on 66.0% of dropbacks this season, the 2nd-highest rate in the NFL. When using single-high, the Steelers have allowed a league-high 1,093 yards. Love has averaged the 5th-most yards per attempt against single-high in 2025 (8.3) while completing 64.0% of his passes, right above the league average (63.3%).

Last four games for Matthew Golden - he leads the Packers in yardage (233) with 58 yards/game. Only Stefon Diggs and Kendrick Bourne have more yards without a TD over that span. Dontayvion Wicks is also out for this game. The rookie WR has seen multiple deep shots in both of the Packers’ prime time games this season, but both fell short. They WILL connect for a long TD on Sunday Night.

Gonna be Golden. Just be sure he’s playing after popping up with a hip injury on Friday.

In Christian Watson’s career, coming back from injury, he’s been a non-factor. His six-game sample size in his first game back after missing the previous game with an injury:

One catch for 8 yards, one catch for 12 yards, two catches for 25 yards, two for 67 yards, three for 68 yards, zero catches for zero yards. Considering how much GB loves to “share the wealth,” I’d bet against Watson seeing any kind of worthwhile volume (if he even plays). GB’s OC even told reporters to temper expectations for Watson this week. Clear signal for an under.

The Packers defense has allowed the 4th-fewest rushing yards before contact (99) and the 2nd-fewest rushing yards after contact (360) this season (Next Gen Stats).
They are the only team in the NFL to rank inside the top 5 in fewest rushing yards allowed both before contact and after contact. The Packers have contacted opposing rushers behind the line of scrimmage at the 6th-highest rate in the league (45.7%) and have missed a tackle on just 15.7% of rushes (3rd-lowest).

The Packers defense has missed a tackle on just 9.0% of their attempts in 2025, the 2nd-lowest in the league. They have also allowed the 2nd-fewest extra yards after missing a tackle (199).

Jaylen Warren has thrived forcing missed tackles, but he’s only gone OVER 56.5 rushing yards once this season (last week vs CIN).

Props:

FULL SNF Card:

Steelers +3