The Eagles are underdogs in Super Bowl LIX. However, the game’s slight spread of just 1.5 points should allow them to lean into their preferred offensive tendencies.
Philadelphia has a dominant running game, and one member of the rushing attack should succeed. Another contributor’s rushing number is a bit steep, making his “lower” an appealing pick. Additionally, one of the pass-catchers in Philadelphia’s top-heavy passing attack has a mouthwatering matchup and an eye-catching niche pick’em choice on Underdog Fantasy.
The Eagles are underdogs in Super Bowl LIX. However, the game’s slight spread of just 1.5 points should allow them to lean into their preferred offensive tendencies.
Philadelphia has a dominant running game, and one member of the rushing attack should succeed. Another contributor’s rushing number is a bit steep, making his “lower” an appealing pick. Additionally, one of the pass-catchers in Philadelphia’s top-heavy passing attack has a mouthwatering matchup and an eye-catching niche pick’em choice on Underdog Fantasy.
Saquon Barkley has been the focal point of Philadelphia’s offense, and they don’t waste time getting the ball in his hands. According to RotoViz’s pace app, excluding the final two minutes of the first half, the Eagles have had a 50% first-half rush rate. They’ve ticked it up one percent to 51% in the playoffs.
Meanwhile, Kansas City’s rush defense has struggled lately. According to the data suite at Fantasy Points, in the Chiefs’ previous eight meaningful games (Week 12 through Week 17 and the playoffs), they’ve coughed up 127 rushing yards per game at 5.08 yards per carry. Philadelphia’s mauling offensive line and Barkley should be licking their chops in anticipation of running the ball against the Chiefs.
Barkley’s been a terror this year. In 19 games, he’s had 128.8 rushing yards per game, 5.95 yards per carry, 3.56 yards before contact per attempt, 2.39 yards after contact per attempt, 7.8% explosive run percentage and 43.8% stuff rate. The Eagles should lean on Barkley early and often, and even if the game gets away from them late, a negative game script late in the game won’t hurt Barkley’s first-half rushing outlook, making his “higher” for 53.5 rushing yards in the first half of the Super Bowl a nifty pivot from his full-game pick’em.
Saquon Barkley has been the focal point of Philadelphia’s rushing attack. Still, Jalen Hurts has also been a critical component. Hurts’ greatest contribution on the ground is his short-yardage prowess.
Hurts’ ability to burrow forward on the tush push is just a small contribution to his yardage output, though. Nevertheless, he’s averaged 41.8 rushing yards per game. His average is above his pick’em number for rushing yards, but it’s significantly skewed by a few outbursts.
As a result, Hurts’ median in 19 games was 39 rushing yards, below his pick’em line. Hurts had fewer than 40.5 rushing yards in 11 out of 19 games this year. Per Pro-Football-Reference, the Chiefs allowed 25.5 rushing yards per game to quarterbacks in the regular season, and Josh Allen had only 39 rushing yards against the Chiefs in the AFC Conference Championship. The Chiefs can buckle down against mobile quarterbacks, evidenced by their last showing against Allen. FantasyPros projects Hurts for 39.6 rushing yards in the Super Bowl.
Dallas Goedert is an efficient pass-catching weapon in Philadelphia’s top-heavy passing attack, and he has a drool-inducing matchup in the Super Bowl. According to the data suite at Fantasy Points, Goedert had the following stats in 13 games this year:
6.5 average depth of target (aDOT)
6.75 yards after the catch per reception
2.51 yards after contact per reception
12 yards per reception
9.77 yards per target
Goedert’s aDOT is only two yards short of his first reception pick’em line. His 2.51 yards after contact per reception coupled with his 6.5-yard aDOT would total 9.01 yards. His yards per reception and yards per target this year were also above 8.5 yards. Finally, the Chiefs allowed 11.2 yards per reception to tight ends in the regular season and 10.6 yards per reception to them in the playoffs. Whether it’s a downfield reception or a short catch, with Goedert gaining yards after the catch, he should surpass 8.5 yards on his first reception in Super Bowl LIX.
