For the third week in a row, one of the NFL’s top two Moneyline favorites lost outright. But the carnage continued in Week 3, with six of the top 10 most used teams in the Circa Sports survivor contest losing outright. Last week’s NFL survivor pool advice got through our three safest picks of the week (Chiefs, 49ers, Lions) and correctly identified two risky plays (Seahawks and Packers) that lost as sizeable favorites. Hopefully, at this point, you haven’t suffered the same fate as several Circa Sports survivor pool contestants.
#CircaSurvivor Week 3 🏈🏆Results
❌ 2,318 Eliminated
✅ 6,292 Survive to Week 4
?"?Week 4 Team Availability: https://t.co/LNh0u7bpG8 pic.twitter.com/Aecksn0FYT— Circa Sports (@CircaSports) September 29, 2026
Read on for our best NFL survivor pool advice for Week 4.
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NFL Survivor Pool Advice for Week 4: Picks & Predictions (2026)
(Odds courtesy of DraftKings Sportsbook)
Here is a list of odds for the top 10 favorites to win their Week 4 matchups.
Week 4 NFL Moneyline Odds
| TEAM | ODDS |
| Baltimore Ravens | -750 |
| Minnesota Vikings | -560 |
| Seattle Seahawks | -340 |
| Buffalo Bills | -330 |
| Kansas City Chiefs | -215 |
| Detroit Lions | -178 |
| Indianapolis Colts | -174 |
| Green Bay Packers | -166 |
| Chicago Bears | -164 |
| New Orleans Saints | -152 |
Safest Picks
Baltimore Ravens, Minnesota Vikings
Baltimore got into a track meet in Rio against Dallas last week, a game that saw a combined 50 first downs and 793 total yards. But for all of the Ravens' defensive struggles (six missed tackles in each of the first two games, 13 last week), I don't expect a Titans offense that mustered just seven points (the fewest the Giants allowed in a game since Week 12, 2023) to keep up.
The other scary thing for the Titans in this contest is that they allowed Giants running back Cam Skattebo to generate a season-high 74 yards after contact (second-most of his career) and a 30% forced missed tackle rate (third-highest). How will that go over when trying to tackle the load that is Derrick Henry?
The Dolphins-Vikings matchup is one between a Miami team that has started 0-3 in consecutive seasons for the second time in team history (1968-69) and a Minnesota team that is off to its second 3-0 start in the last 10 seasons (2024 when it finished 14-3).
The Vikings are also amid an eight-game winning streak, the second-longest streak under head coach Kevin O'Connell. No, I don't think the Dolphins are going 0-17, nor are the Vikings going 17-0. But Miami's offense will also look a lot different after losing De'Von Achane to a torn ACL, after he finished fifth in rushing yards and had the most explosive runs (40) a season ago.
Risky Popular Plays
Seattle Seahawks, Buffalo Bills, Chicago Bears
The Seahawks somehow lost a game to the Commanders and backup quarterback Marcus Mariota last week, despite a net success rate of +17.9%. That, and the fact that they are a better home team now playing in front of the “12th man” against a Chargers squad that is 0-3 for the first time since 2017, will make for popular survivor pool plays.
I’m still cautious about this pick, though. Justin Herbert is too good a quarterback to continue with a 27.4 total quarterback rating (29th out of 30 qualified quarterbacks) for much longer, and the Chargers forced the Josh Allen-led Bills into five turnovers last week.
Buffalo has a chance to take a massive three-game lead over New England in the division. The Patriots seem ripe for the picking, as Drake Maye leads the NFL with six interceptions and just turned in his fourth game with three or more turnovers since the start of the 2025 playoffs. While New England is 0-2 on the road, it went a perfect 9-0 in road games (including playoffs) last season, including a win over its division rival.
Chicago is getting lots of love after seemingly not missing a beat with Case Keenum filling in for the injured Caleb Williams at quarterback. But the Bears are still facing a Jets squad that had Green Bay dead to rights before an overtime loss, and was tied with the Lions on the road with four minutes to play last week.
Chicago's schedule is daunting after winning the division last season, but a home game in the cold against a dome team like the Saints in Week 11 or a trip to Miami in Week 14 seem like much better spots to save the Bears for.
Contrarian Play to Beat a Large Pool
Green Bay Packers
I'm holding my nose and suggesting Green Bay as a smart strategy pick in NFL survivor pools this week, even after its embarrassing 35-14 loss to Atlanta, which snapped an NFL-long 13-game winning streak in home openers.
This pick is all about injured Buccaneers quarterback Baker Mayfield, who is expected to miss 2-4 weeks with a dislocated thumb. That puts backup Jalon Daniels under center, a quarterback who has thrown just three career passes, one of which was intercepted.
Green Bay wouldn't be a confident survivor pick against any NFC North opponent, and I wouldn't want to wait until Week 15 when they host the Dolphins to take advantage of them in a prime contrarian spot.
Mike Spector is a featured writer at BettingPros. For more from Mike, check out his archive and follow him @MikeSpector01.