NFL Thursday Night Football Betting Primer (Bills vs. Dolphins)

We're rolling into Week 3 of the NFL season, and the Thursday night slate wastes no time delivering fireworks. The Miami Dolphins travel to Buffalo in an early-season AFC showdown that could have lasting playoff implications. Well, that is if you are the Buffalo Bills…as Dolphins HC Mike McDaniel can only hope to see him keep his job until January. But a huge road win versus a divisional opponent would surely extend his tenure in Miami.

In this Week 3 edition of the Thursday Night Football BettingPros Primer, we're locked in on the Dolphins-Bills clash to see if Buffalo can deliver the final blow to a Dolphins team on the cusp of an 0-3 start.

From sharp insights on the spread and total to can't-miss player props, I'll help you build the perfect single-game parlay to kick off the week in style.

And remember, this is only the appetizer before the full BettingPros Week 3 Primer drops later this week - complete with live betting tips, prop angles, and expert sides/totals picks to keep you one step ahead of the books.

Also, don't forget to join the BP Discord, where the community is always firing off sharp live-betting calls.

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Thursday Night Football

Miami Dolphins @ Buffalo Bills - Thursday, 8:20 PM ET (Amazon Prime Video)

BettingPros Consensus Odds:

Erickson’s Pick: Bills Team Total Over 30.5 points

(lean Dolphins +12.5)

Confidence: ★★★★ (4 out of 5)

Why:

The Bills will be facing the league’s worst defense on Thursday night at home (32nd in EPA/pass attempt)
Bills have scored 30+ points in 12 of their last 15 games with starters (80%).
Miami’s defense has allowed 33 points in back-to-back weeks to start the 2025 season (Colts/Patriots)

Trends

Sides:

The Bills have won each of their last 11 home games.
The home team has won each of the Bills' last eight games.
The Bills have covered the spread in 12 of their last 13 games.
The Bills have covered the spread in 13 of their last 20 games against AFC opponents.
The Bills have won 23 of their last 29 games.
The Buffalo Bills are 24-8 as a favorite since the start of last season, but just 17-15 ATS.
Since the start of 2023, the Bills have been 18-2 straight up and 12-8 ATS at home.
The Bills have won their last 17 home games against opponents on a losing streak.
The Bills have won each of their last nine home games against the Dolphins.
The Dolphins have lost 14 of their last 22 games.
The Dolphins have lost 13 of their last 14 road games against teams with a winning record.
The Dolphins have lost 17 of their last 19 games as underdogs.
Miami is sub-25% ATS as an underdog dating back to last season and has gone 3-12 overall since 2023. They are 5-13 as an underdog in their last 18 applicable games.
The Dolphins have failed to cover the spread in 10 of their last 12 games as road underdogs.

Totals:

Each of the Bills’ last seven Thursday games has gone UNDER the total points line.
Seventeen of the Bills' last 24 games have gone OVER the total points line
Bills have scored 30+ points in 12 of their last 15 games with starters (80%).
Twelve of the Bills’ last 16 games as favorites have gone OVER the total points line.
Twelve of the Bills’ last 14 home games have gone OVER the total points line.
Bills are 8-3 O/U since start of 2024 (51+ PPG).
Each of the Bills’ last five road games has gone OVER the total points line.
Sixteen of the Bills’ last 23 games have gone OVER the total points line – 22 of their last 28 road games.
Nine of the Dolphins' last 11 road games have gone UNDER the total points line.
Each of the Dolphins’ last seven home games has gone OVER the total points line.

Overall

Is this just too many points? Miami is getting 12.5 points as massive road underdogs in a divisional matchup. At home, I could definitely get the idea to ride with Miami. But on the road – where they typically don’t play nearly as well – on a short week…well, it’s hard to place my hard-earned dollars here. But back to my original point. Just so many points to lay, when the Buffalo Bills still have major defensive woes. Ed Oliver is out. Matt Milano is out. CBs Taron Johnson and Cam Lewis are questionable.

The Bills didn’t get exposed last week versus a more one-dimensional Jets offense, but I could see the Dolphins doing more offensively with Tyreek Hill, Jaylen Waddle, and De’Von Achane all healthy in the lineup. The spread is too rich for me, even with Tua Tagovailoa’s terrible track record versus the Bills (1-8) and Sean McDermott’s defense. Buffalo has blown out Miami in 2 of their last three matchups despite the spreads closing at least 3 points. In fact, the closest game between these two teams recently that Tua Tagovailoa played in…had the largest spread (Buffalo -7). Miami lost by 3 in December 2022.

Buffalo – in a similar vein to Baltimore – can often play down to its competition. Buffalo, since 2023, is just 11-8 ATS as a home favorite. But Miami…3-10 over that same span as a road underdog (23%).

But even so. The Dolphins are playing for their jobs, and McDaniel is going to go to every offensive trick he can find to keep his team in contention. Obviously, Miami stopping the Bills’ offense is a massive uphill battle that the Dolphins won’t end up winning. Miami’s defense is arguably the worst in the NFL. I think just betting the Bills’ team total at 30.5 is the way to go here. I mean…Miami has given up 33 points to Daniel Jones and Drake Maye over the last two weeks. And now they face Josh Allen. Don’t sweat the sides (because maybe we get a Miami backdoor cover here in a more competitive game). After all, the market has misread MIA-BUF games at every turn. Projected close games turned into blowouts and vice versa. But hey…that’s the NFL.

Regardless… Give me the Bills over 30.5 points. For a fun bet, if you are looking for some SGP action besides props, you can pair the Bills team total with Miami with a crazy alternate (like +24.5) and still get a plus-money payout.

Prop Angles

Dolphins running backs have run 82 routes this season, 3rd-most in the NFL, earning a 24.4% target rate, 8th-highest. The Dolphins are one of only three offenses (along with San Francisco and Seattle) that have aligned their running backs in each possible alignment (backfield, slot, tight, and wide) on over 5% of their total routes this season.
De'Von Achane has caught 11 of his 14 targets for 112 yards and two touchdowns thus far this season, gaining 128 yards after the catch.
- This comes off the back of a 2024 season where Achane totaled a position-high 592 receiving yards, six receiving touchdowns (tied with R. White), and 699 YAC (136 higher than any other running back). The Bills have allowed just 31 receiving yards to running backs through the first two weeks (8th-fewest in the NFL), but allowed a league-high 705 receiving yards to the position last season. Without linebacker Matt Milano, I’d expect Buffalo to struggle stopping RBs in the passing game. Achane caught 7-plus passes in both games versus the Bills in 2024. Also went for over 58 yards in both contests. I like his TD props at anytime (+120)
Jaylen Waddle has never had more than four catches playing at Buffalo. Take the under on his 4.5 receptions. Waddle has exceeded 4.5 catches thrice in his last 15 games. And two of those came against the Patriots (none versus Buffalo).
If the Bills are going to score 30, then we are going to get TDs from several of their guys…early and often. Keon Coleman has been a constant red-zone favorite of Allen’s, so I think we could see him score versus a bad Dolphins coverage unit.
Last week in a tough matchup…Coleman went 3-26 on three targets, but in the 1H it was still 3-26, and he stayed involved in the 2-minute. Drew a tough matchup versus Sauce Gardner. He will rebound in better matchups (like Miami). He had a 4th catch for 16 yards that was called back on pass interference.

Erickson’s Props:

Full TNF Betting Card

Bills Team Total over 30.5
Dolphins +12.5 (lean)