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NFL Thursday Night Football Betting Primer (Eagles vs. Cowboys)

Author image by Andrew Erickson | @AndrewErickson_ | Sep 3, 2025
Author image by Andrew Erickson | @AndrewErickson_ | Sep 3, 2025
NFL Thursday Night Primer Eagles Cowboys

We made it, everyone. Week 1 of the NFL season has finally arrived, and it starts with a banger right out of the gates.

In this kick-off edition of the BettingPros Primer, we’re laser-focused on the highly anticipated Eagles-Cowboys NFC East showdown on Thursday night-reigning Super Bowl Champions versus America’s Team.

From expert insights on the spread and total to can’t-miss player props, I'll help you craft the perfect single-game parlay to get your season started with a bang. This is just a taste of what’s coming when the official BettingPros Week 1 Primer drops later this week. You guessed it. Live betting tips. This year, I’ll be providing guidance on what you should bet even after kick-off.

Get ready, folks. It's time to get AMPED.

Thursday Night Football

Dallas Cowboys at Philadelphia Eagles - Thursday, 8:20 PM ET (NBC)

Market snapshot:

Erickson's pick: Game Total under 48.5 (lean Dallas +8.5)

Why:

  • Fading offenses with limited preseason reps
  • Dallas OL issues: LT Tyler Guyton banged up, low PFF grade as a rookie, big mismatch vs deep PHI DL
  • Philly's defense limits explosives: 10.7% explosive-play rate allowed (best NFL) in 2024
  • Jalen Hurts adjusting to a new OC ?' potential for slower offensive start

Trends

Sides:

  • Dallas was 4-8 ATS and straight up as a road underdog in their last 12 appearances (before Dak Prescott’s injury in 2024).
  • The Cowboys have failed to cover the spread in nine of their last 15 games.
  • The overall favorites have covered the spread in 23 of the Cowboys' last 35 games.
  • The Cowboys have lost the first quarter in nine of their last 12 games.
  • The Cowboys have scored first in five of their last six games.
  • Dallas went 5-3 on the road in 2024 and ATS.
  • The favorites have covered the spread in each of the last eight games between the Cowboys and Eagles.
  • The Eagles have won 16 of their last 17 games.
  • The Eagles have won the first half in each of their last 12 games.
  • In the Eagles’ last seven games, the first score has been an Eagles touchdown.
  • The Eagles have won 15 of their last 21 games as favorites (71%).
  • The Eagles have been the first team to score 21 points in their last 16 games.
  • The Eagles have scored first in each of their last eight games.
  • The Eagles are 7-14-2 ATS when their defense allowed 20 or more points since the start of last season (30%).
    • They covered just seven spreads when they allowed 20 points on defense.
  • The Eagles are 16-5-2 ATS when their defense allowed fewer than 20 points since the start of last season (69%).
  • The underdogs have covered the spread in 15 of the Eagles’ last 26 games (58%).
  • The Eagles covered four of their last five games when favored by 4.5 points or more at home in 2024.
    • The average margin of victory in those contests was greater than 10 points. And they were all against 2024 playoff teams.
  • The Eagles are 18-12 ATS as home favorites in their last 30 games (59%).
  • The Eagles have failed to cover the spread in 11 of their last 17 games against teams with a losing record.
  • The Eagles have failed to cover the spread in eight of their last 10 home games against teams that held a losing record.

Totals:

  • The Eagles went 4-7 O/U at home in 2024 (44.8 PPG).
  • Eight of the Eagles' last 13 games have gone UNDER the total points line.
  • Six of the Eagles’ last eight home games have gone UNDER the total points line.
  • The Eagles are 16-21 O/U since the start of 2023. But they are 7-12 toward the over on the road.
    • The majority of their higher-scoring games have come at home. The Eagles are 10-9 toward the OVER at home since the start of 2023.
  • The Eagles have hit the first quarter OVER in seven straight (10 or more points) – excluding Week 18 (rested starters in 2024).
  • Twelve of the Cowboys' last 19 games have gone OVER the total points line.
  • Nineteen of the Cowboys' last 31 games have gone OVER the projected total (61%), including the last 18 of 29 games.

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Overall

Rewind to Week 18. The Cowboys have a sub-20 point implied team total. Now fast forward to Week 1 of the 2025 season. QB Dak Prescott is back for Dallas under center. And yet, Big D STILL has an implied team total of 20 points across most sportsbooks.

What gives?

Well, maybe it's the Dallas offensive line. The public is vastly overrating this unit based on past perceptions that the Cowboys have always boasted a great offensive line. Starting left tackle Tyler Guyton's rookie season yielded just a 49.4 PFF overall grade, which ranked 73rd at the position. He has missed almost all of training camp with an injury. Against the Eagles on the road, this will be problematic. Dallas' OL is going to get exposed on the road in a hostile environment.

And their defense? Well, the secondary is trash, and they just traded away their best defensive player in Micah Parsons.

This is tough sledding for new HC Brian Schottenheimer in his first game against the reigning champions. Even with Prescott, CeeDee Lamb, and the newly acquired WR George Pickens, I am not sure that the offense will generate enough BIG plays to keep up with the Eagles. Philly’s defense is built to limit explosive plays. The Eagles allowed opposing offenses to generate an explosive play (10+ yard run, 15+ yard pass) on just 10.7% of plays last season, the lowest rate in the NFL. Philly was particularly strong in the air, allowing a league-low 65 explosive pass plays on 621 dropbacks (Next Gen Stats).

When these lines first dropped back in May, I thought the value of Dallas was excellent. A +6.5 for the Boys? With Prescott under center? All day. But the line has also moved to more Eagles love (appropriately based on the Parsons trade) to +7.5, which puts bettors in a tough spot if the Eagles only win by a touchdown.

I think the best bet in this game is just to slam the under at 48.5. points. Neither team played its starters in the preseason. We see teams that follow this approach come out flat offensively all the time.

Jalen Hurts has another new offensive coordinator. Kellen Moore is out, and Kevin Patullo, the former passing game coordinator (2021-2024), is in. He's been with Hurts since 2021, and his promotion opens the possibility of more passing volume (along with some growing pains). Wouldn't be surprised if the passing game took some time to gel after some lackluster moments at the start of last season.

And as a word of caution. You always have to be careful with these division games-especially Week 1.

In 2024, prime time favorites were the most profitable (most net units) to bet ATS (60%). But right behind them were divisional dogs (57%).

My lean is still the Eagles with the points, but I think there's more value in betting alternate spreads in case they just destroy a flat Cowboys team with a new HC after trading their best defensive player. Vibes might not be great in Dallas right now.

Update: With continuing to move toward Philly up to -8.5, I think Dallas is the sharp side to be on. The Cowboys were bigger underdogs last year against the Eagles when Cooper Rush was the starting QB. It’s becoming too many points for a divisional matchup. Especially considering if Prescott is throwing a ton, a backdoor cover is also in play.

Best bet is the game total under. The total has moved up since it opened (46.5 -> 48.5), which I alluded to in the early lookahead show for Week 1.

The Eagles finished the season as fast starters offensively, but from Weeks 1-4 in 2024, they went scoreless in the first quarter. Starting slow offensively has been something that has been a common theme with Philly’s offenses under Nick Sirianni. And in fact, it was a betting angle for much of the first half of last season.

If you bet the spread take Dallas at the biggest number you can find (currently +8.5).

Wait till the Eagles start slow or Dallas scores first. Then bet Philly at a better number, especially if that DL is getting to Dak early in the game, because it won't get easier for Dallas to drop back in the second half continuously.

Prop Angles

  • Jalen Hurts has recorded 29+ rushing yards in each of his last nine regular-season appearances.
  • A prop that generated a decent chunk of money for us last year was betting on the unders for Rico Dowdle as a receiver out of the backfield. But that was with Cooper Rush under center, not Dak Prescott. Pay attention to Javonte Williams’ deployment out of the backfield. If he is playing on third down (the most likely outcome), he should have Dowdle-esque receiving lines similar to those from earlier in 2024. Weeks 1-9, Dowdle went over 15 receiving yards in 6/7 games.
  • Williams went over 12.5 receiving yards in 63% (10/16) of games last season.
  • Over the past two seasons, DeVonta Smith has gone under 5.5 catches with his two teammates healthy in more than 80% of his games (17/21).
  • Smith went under 4.5 catches in all but one game last season when AJB and Goedert were in the lineup.
  • No team allowed more receptions to TEs than the Cowboys did in 2024...(3.8 per game).
  • In four of the last five games of 2024 (with healthy teammates), Dallas Goedert went over 36.5 receiving yards.
  • The only anytime TD/1st TD props I'm interested in betting for Thursday night are on Kavontae Turpin. Schottenheimer loves this guy, and I expect him to get used more than most anticipate this season.
  • Turpin returns kicks and punts, so that creates additional opportunities for him to hit pay dirt with the new kickoff rules.
  • Also, I think that Javonte Williams +225 to score a TD are pretty good odds. However, Rico Dowdle ran for 1,000 yards last season and didn’t score much.
  • George Pickens has averaged just 3.5 receptions per game in his career. Even with more projected passing volume in Dallas' offense, he is no longer the clear-cut alpha alongside CeeDee Lamb and Jake Ferguson.
  • Given the tougher matchup against the Eagles...I think the under on his receptions is pretty safe of a bet for Thursday night.

    Erickson’s Props

    Prizepicks Slips

    • Williams/Smith/Goedert

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