Skip to main content Skip to navigation Skip to footer

NFL Thursday Night Football Betting Primer: Falcons vs. Packers Picks

Author image by Andrew Erickson | @AndrewErickson_ | Sep 24, 2026
Author image by Andrew Erickson | @AndrewErickson_ | Sep 24, 2026
NFL Thursday Night Football Betting Primer: Falcons vs. Packers Picks

The Dirty Birds land in Green Bay for Thursday night football, with QB Michael Penix Jr. making his first 2026 start, working back from a November 2025 ACL surgery.

Meanwhile, Atlanta Falcons CB A.J. Terrell Jr. was placed on IR Tuesday (groin) and is OUT ahead of this matchup versus the Green Bay Packers’ talented WR room headlined by the likes of Christian Watson and Matthew Golden.

This is the first of three prime-time games for the Falcons in as many weeks, so let’s thank our lucky stars that Penix is healthy enough to play (please no more Cooper Rush). Atlanta might finally have a shot at getting into the red zone for the first time all year in Kevin Stefanski’s first year as the HC.

The Packers will play their home opener in Week 3.  Let’s dive into the predictions and plays for Thursday Night Football.

Hopefully a better TNF than Week 2, where we finished just 2-2 on straight bets with zero TD calls (besides Jahmyr Gibbs, of course).

Prime-Time Highlight (Through Week 2)

  • Favorites went 3-3-1 ATS; underdogs went 3-3-1 ATS (7 games).
  • Home teams went 4-1-1 ATS; road teams went 1-4-1 ATS (1 neutral-site game excluded).
  • Overall O/U: 2-5.

Get instant alerts when a line reaches your target via the BettingPros App >>

Find the best +EV NFL bets at BettingPros based on where the sharpest sportsbooks think the expected value is.

NFL Thursday Night Football Betting Primer: Falcons vs. Packers Picks

Atlanta Falcons at Green Bay Packers

Betting Lines & Odds

Erickson’s Pick: Falcons +5.5, Under 43

Trends

  • ATL current streaks (heading into Week 3): ATS non-cover streak now 3 games; Under streak now 3 games - extended by the Week 2 home loss to Carolina (3-34). ATL is 0-2 SU and 0-2 ATS to start 2026, with the Under hitting in both games.
  • GB current streaks (heading into Week 3): SU losing streak SNAPPED (won in OT at NYJ, 20-17), but ATS non-cover streak EXTENDED. GB is 0-2 ATS to start 2026.
  • The Packers have lost six of their last seven games (one win since Micah Parsons’ injury).
  • Green Bay has won each of its last 13 home openers. (Note: this Thursday’s game is GB’s first home game of 2026, after road games at MIN in Week 1 and at NYJ in Week 2)
  • GB is 0-8 ATS in its last 8 games. 2-7-1 ATS over its last 10 games.
  • GB as home favorite: 8-6 ATS since 2024.
  • GB is 6-10-1 O/U at home since 2024.
  • ATL as road underdog: 4-1 ATS since 2025. 3-6 O/U.
  • Atlanta in 2025 finished 6-1-1 ATS as an underdog.

Injuries

Atlanta:

  • QB Tua Tagovailoa, DL Brandon Dorlus, and OT Jawaan Taylor are all available for Atlanta this Thursday in Green Bay. CB A.J. Terrell was placed on IR.

Green Bay:

  • Down multiple OL pieces; no WR Jayden Reed.

Betting Preview

The clearest betting signal is GB’s brutal ATS profile right now - 0-8 in their last 8 games, 0-2 to start 2026 and 5-10 ATS as a favorite since 2025 - against a 5.5-point number tonight (even as home favorites). Therefore, it feels like the move is to take the road Falcons catching the 5.5, especially with a legitimate Atlanta QB under center for the first time all season. Penix went 4-1 ATS as a road underdog in 2025 (3-2 toward the under on the road).

And keep in mind that Kevin Stefanski’s Cleveland Browns beat the Packers outright in Week 3 last season (13-10) as 7.5-point road underdogs, with Joe Flacco under center.

I’d lean toward the points (Falcons +5.5) over trusting Green Bay to cover. The complicating factor is GB’s 13-game home-opener win streak on the moneyline/SU side, so this reads more as “take the points” than “take Atlanta outright.”

As for the total, this actually might be the best bet. Atlanta’s on a 3-game Under streak, and 43 points is already a fairly modest number for a short week with Penix making his first 2026 start. Penix is taking hold of a brand-new offense that will require him to play a lot more under center.

Per Next Gen Stats, in Kevin Stefanski’s first three years in Cleveland (2020-22), the Browns’ offense had the third-highest under-center rate in the league (47.9%). Over the next three seasons (2023-25), their under-center rate nearly halved to 28.9%; Cleveland used spread formations on 31.2% of plays over that timeframe, the third-highest rate in the league. The Falcons’ offense has averaged a 41.9% under center rate through Stefanski’s first two games as head coach. In 742 career snaps, Michael Penix Jr. has taken 34 total snaps from under center (4.6%), with just six of those 34 being called pass plays (17.6%).

I’d lean under, given the Falcons’ interior pass rush could cause issues up front for Green Bay’s patchwork offensive line.

Per Next Gen Stats: The Falcons’ defense has generated the seventh-highest pressure rate in the NFL this season (41.5%), led by their interior defensive line, which has the most pressures in the league (23).

Atlanta is one of five teams whose interior linemen have more pressures than their edge rushers (16). Gervon Dexter is tied for the second-most pressures by an interior defensive lineman (10), and with Brandon Dorlus adding six, the pair’s 16 pressures are tied for the second-most by an interior duo.

I think both offensive lines could get overwhelmed here, given that each defense ranks top-7 in pressure rate (Packers rank third). Sacks and negative plays kill drives, which leads to a lot less scoring.

Even so, I expect to see a major offensive boost for Falcons No. 1 WR, Drake London. It’s been rough for him, but he did technically secure five catches last week (he had another catch wiped off due to a penalty). I think he gets peppered with targets as Penix’s first read.

In his first 14 games with Michael Penix Jr. over the last two seasons, London nearly eclipsed 20 fantasy PPG in full PPR (nearly 92 receiving yards, 6.5 catches and 11 targets per game). Elite-level numbers. As a legitimate red-zone threat, I bet he scores the Falcons’ first red-zone TD this season. London has scored in 4 of 5 games with Penix at QB.

Matthew Golden has exceeded 54.5 receiving yards in his last 3 games. Jayden Reed is out, and the Packers will not find success running the ball against a defense that ranks first in fewest rushing yards allowed per game (63, 2.9 YPC). They are missing their No. 1 CB, so I expect a decent chunk of passing for the Packers.

Per Next Gen Stats, Golden has recorded 130 receiving yards when aligned out wide this season, 10th-most among wide receivers. He has aligned out wide on 86.4% of his routes through the first two weeks, up from 58.4% in his rookie season. In Week 2 against the Jets, Golden caught 3 of 4 targets for 40 yards when aligned out wide and drew two defensive pass interference penalties on deep routes, reaching maximum speeds of 18.59 and 19.60 mph on those plays. Golden’s top speed of 21.2 mph is the fifth-fastest among wide receivers this season.

MarShawn Lloyd carried 6 times for 20 yards and caught both of his targets for 6 yards and a touchdown in Week 2 against the Jets. But Lloyd fumbled in the game. He didn’t touch the ball again after his lost fumble in the fourth quarter - Chris Brooks and Kaleb Johnson took back the rushing duties after they put the ball on the ground. Brooks led the way with a 46% snap share, followed by Lloyd and Johnson at 27% each.

Through two games, Lloyd is the 3rd worst RB in EPA/rush this season (Ashton Jeanty and Quinshon Judkins rank worse). The third-year back ranks 4th worst in rushing yards over expectation per attempt (-1.3). So despite Lloyd having the most intended touches (22) on the Packers offense this season, he has played just 37.6% of snaps (50.0% opportunity rate) with little to show for it (19 carries for 57 yards).

Meanwhile, Johnson led all Packers RBs in rush attempts (8) and rush yards (32), with his best work coming in overtime. Overall usage: 8 carries for 32 yards, no targets. First-half usage: 5 carries for 21 yards (4.2 YPC). Second-half usage (regulation): 1 carry for -3 yards. Overtime usage: 2 carries for 14 yards (7.0 YPC) - including the key gain on Green Bay’s game-winning field-goal drive. Johnson rushes for 11 and 12 yards were the most by a Packers RB in this game (trailing Chris Brooks’ long rush of 14 from Week 1). The 2025 3rd-rounder by Pittsburgh also got positive coach speak from his head coach post-game, citing that Johnson has earned more opportunities. Given the lack of contributions this run game has gotten so far from non-Johnson backs…he’s going to get some run on Thursday night at the expense of Lloyd’s carries. Lloyd has finished under his rushing prop in both games this season.

The Packers offensive line is also a total mess, which suggests tough sledding for any Packers RB.

Props

BettingPros App 3.0