There are 12 games on Thursday’s Major League Baseball slate for my last MLB home run props article of the regular season. I aim to go out with a bang with my top three plays.
Randy Arozarena was one of Seattle’s lone bright spots of the entire season, and Mookie Betts has been one of the hottest hitters in the Majors, period, in September. The two are more of my value plays for today’s column, while I round out my home run picks with one of the league’s leaders in long balls.
Read on for my top three MLB home run props for Thursday, September 24th.
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Thursday’s Best MLB Home Run Props
(Odds courtesy of DraftKings Sportsbook)
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Matt Olson (+329)
Matt Olson has four hits in 14 at-bats against Reds righty Brady Singer, two of which have been home runs. That is a big reason for his gaudy 1.159 OPS in their head-to-head matchups. Singer as a whole has allowed a combined .561 slugging rate to current Braves hitters.
Singer’s xERA is slightly worse than his actual 5.67 ERA, and he ranks in the 10th percentile or worse in barrels, xBA and average exit velocity. Atlanta is locked into the No. 3 seed in the playoffs, meaning it is hosting a first-round series, but I’m not worried about Olson getting a day off considering he is this era’s marathon man with a long consecutive-game streak going (940).
Randy Arozarena (+480)
It may have been overlooked because of Seattle’s disappointing season relative to expectations, but Randy Arozarena began the week with the fourth-best wRC+ (minimum 400 plate appearances) and ranked 12th among position players with a 5.1 fWAR. He has posted a career-best 5.3 WAR through 148 games.
Arozarena is one of five players with at least six consecutive seasons with 20+ home runs and 20+ stolen bases. He and Yordan Alvarez are the only two players with a wRC+ of 125 or higher in each month this season (minimum 60 plate appearances).
Arozarena is also one of three players alongside the two MVP favorites, Pete Crow-Armstrong and Alvarez, with a .270+ average and at least a .475 slugging rate on both fastballs and non-fastballs (minimum 200 plate appearances vs. fastballs; 150 plate appearances vs. non-fastballs).
Arozarena ranks in the top five in batting average, on-base percentage, slugging rate and wRC+ in road games. But even though his home numbers are worse in comparison, I still like him to go yard tonight.
Mookie Betts (+515)
Mookie Betts entered the series against the rival Padres this week with incredible statistics this month. Among those with a minimum of 50 plate appearances in September, Betts has recorded the following numbers:
- .373 average (fourth)
- 6 home runs (tied for sixth)
- .468 on-base percentage (fourth)
- .746 slugging rate (third)
- 227 wRC+ (second)
- 1.6 fWAR (second)
- 1.215 OPS (second)
Betts is one of three players (Geraldo Perdomo and Steven Kwan are the others) to rank in the 95th percentile in chase and whiff rate. However, compared to Perdomo’s 21st-percentile and Kwan’s seventh-percentile exit velocities, Betts’ 73rd-percentile ranking in that metric stands out.
Betts is 3-for-10 in his career against Nick Pivetta. I’m backing him to hit his first home run off the righty tonight.
Mike Spector is a featured writer at BettingPros. For more from Mike, check out his archive and follow him @MikeSpector01.