Skip to main content Skip to navigation Skip to footer

NFL Thursday Night Football Betting Primer: Lions vs. Bills Picks

Author image by Andrew Erickson | @AndrewErickson_ | Sep 17, 2026
Author image by Andrew Erickson | @AndrewErickson_ | Sep 17, 2026
NFL Thursday Night Football Betting Primer: Lions vs. Bills Picks

Detroit opened its home slate with an overtime thriller against New Orleans; Buffalo survived a shootout against Houston. First meeting of the season between two teams that both covered public expectations differently - Detroit didn’t cover as a favorite; Buffalo did. But traditional Thursday night football is where underdogs thrive, and we have everything you need to know in this week’s NFL Thursday Night Football betting primer.

Last year, over 16 weeks, divisional underdogs went 9-1 against the spread (ATS) on Thursdays and 4-6 straight up (SU). That doesn’t apply to this specific out-of-conference matchup, but it’s worth filing away for future Thursday Night Football matchups. So far this year, that trend has continued, with the Rams defeating the 49ers in Week 1 as 3.5-point underdogs. And we swept the board with our best bets. LFG.

Let’s keep the winnings rolling (and by that, I mean another week of betting Jahmyr Gibbs anytime touchdowns).

Get instant alerts when a line reaches your target via the BettingPros App >>

BettingPros Prop Bet Cheat Shhet

NFL Thursday Night Football Betting Primer: Lions vs. Bills Picks

Detroit Lions at Buffalo Bills

Betting Lines & Odds

Erickson’s Pick: Bills Team Total Over 30.5 Points (-110)

Trends

  • Buffalo has scored 30+ points in 13 of their last 17 home games (76.5%).
  • Lions are 16-4 ATS as an underdog of 4+ points under Dan Campbell - Detroit is a +4.5-point underdog this week.
  • 2025 full-season ATS: Bills 9-10 (Home 5-3, 2-5 as home favorite), Lions 8-9 (Road 3-6).
  • Bills are 5-2 as home favorites, 11-5 since 2024 (12-6-1).
  • The public tickets are 74% on Detroit, yet the line has moved a point and a half toward Buffalo since opening - reverse line movement/steam on the Bills side.
  • The Lions have won two straight SU, but did not cover as a 7-point favorite in their Week 1 overtime win over the Saints - a fresh one-game ATS non-cover.
  • The Bills are on a fresh one-game SU win/ATS cover streak.
  • The Bills have won 17 of their last 19 home games.
  • Each of the Bills’ last eight home games went over the total in September.
  • The Lions are 0-6 ATS after a win.
  • Detroit is 1-5 ATS in their last six games.
  • Jameson Williams has scored in three out of the last four games with the Lions as underdogs.

Injuries

 

Betting Preview

When in doubt, we usually just take the Lions ATS. That’s been the mantra for handicapping this team in the Dan Campbell era, especially when it’s catching points - 16-4 ATS as an underdog of four or more points under Campbell is about as strong a coach-specific betting trend you’ll find, and it’s Detroit’s exact role on Thursday night.

That’s the case for taking the points. But playing on a short week after an overtime game does not work in the Lions’ favor. Let’s just say the results are not super favorable, and this same team was in this spot just last year. They won in overtime against the Giants on Sunday, then lost outright as a 3-point favorite the following Thursday.

The line moving toward Buffalo, despite 74% of the public tickets being on Detroit, is the kind of signal that usually means sharper money sees something the public doesn’t.

The public knows about Detroit’s poor secondary, but perhaps not the injuries across the offensive line. And Jared Goff (even in decent weather, in a brand-new stadium) plays differently outdoors than inside the dome.

Buffalo’s home-favorite number (2-5 ATS as favorites last season) actually argues the other way, which is the honest tension in this game when contemplating sides in this matchup.

On the early lookahead show this week, I said points are going to be in short supply for absolutely no one in this game. Jahmyr Gibbs recorded a career-high in carries in Week 1, even knowing Detroit was heading into a short week. I’m running his anytime touchdown prop every single week, regardless of the matchup - hit it in Week 1, rolling the winnings into this one.

I still don’t have a strong lean on either side; the number’s pretty sharp at 3.5-4.

At the time, I felt the 53.5 total was too low (now up to 54.5), and I said on the show I’d bet the over, even on a short week - if it weren’t a short week, I’d want it closer to 57.5. I don’t think either defense is actually good, and these are two of the five best offenses in football running into two shaky defenses.

Thursday-night underdogs have historically been live, but that has been more tied to divisional matchups, which does not apply here.

The fact that we saw all four prime-time games go under last week is interesting. Primed for regression? Or a sign that these island games are destined to disappoint in the points column. I’m thinking it might be primed for regression, given that three of those matchups were division games and the other featured a team losing their starting quarterback (paired with an elite defense).

Barring anything catastrophic to either team’s starting quarterbacks, I’m leaning toward the over. But it’s not my best bet.

Buffalo has been an offensive wagon at home, averaging over 30 points per game in the last three seasons. Buffalo has scored 30+ points in 13 of their last 17 home games (76.5%), averaging 32.7 points per game at home across those two seasons (31.2 in 2025; 34.3 in 2024).

They hit the over in six out of nine home contests last season: 41, 31, 31, 44, 39, 35. I like the Bills going over their implied team total of 30.5 points. Don’t sweat the sides; don’t sweat the Lions holding up their end of the bargain offensively.

Bet on Josh Allen, Joe Brady and scoring points in their brand-new stadium.

Props

Jameson Williams drew the second-most targets on the Lions with nine in Week 1, good for a 23.1% target share, behind only Amon-Ra St. Brown - real No. 2 WR volume worth tracking, because this stat line doesn’t capture the true game Williams could have had. He had multiple opportunities for massive plays, so he left some production on the cutting room floor.

Williams is boom-or-bust by nature, so this can sometimes happen. But it also signals a clear buying opportunity whenever he comes off a down performance, as he did in Week 1:

  • 4 catches
  • 45 yards
  • 1 red-zone target
  • 0 touchdowns
  • 84 incomplete air yards

The underlying profile is exactly what you want from a wide receiver looking to boom - a team-high 14.1 average depth of target (aDOT), 54.0% air yard share and a 90.0% route-participation rate on an 86.3% snap share. The Lions will surely need him if they are going to keep pace with a high-powered Bills offense that just posted a 36-burger on the Houston Texans’ defense on the road.

Williams has over 58.5 receiving yards in seven out of his last 10 games, including five out of six road games. Also four straight overs when Detroit has been an underdog. The Bills allowed a total of 81 explosive passing plays last season (tied for the fifth-fewest) but allowed eight explosive passing plays in Week 1 against Houston, per NFL Next Gen Stats.

DJ Moore’s Buffalo debut - five catches on eight targets for 100 yards and one touchdown - came with real downfield stress on the Houston secondary.

According to NGS, he caught four out of seven targets of 10+ air yards for 93 yards - his highest downfield receiving total in a game since Week 17 of 2023. A 46-yard defensive pass interference (DPI) penalty adds a fifth piece of evidence that he was drawing genuine coverage attention deep in his first game in a Buffalo uniform. That DPI set up Allen’s touchdown sneak.

Moore’s final box score almost undersells it - 10 true targets (two penalty-erased incompletions added back) equals a team-high 31% adjusted target share. His 74.2% route participation and a game-high 19.4 aDOT round out a “true No. 1 WR” signal in Week 1 of his tenure with the Bills. Take his yardage against a Lions secondary that got torched by New Orleans’ wide receivers in Week 1.

survivor contest