The AFC North takes center stage as Week 4 begins, with the 2-1 Browns hosting the 2-1 Steelers. Both teams are coming off victories in Week 3, and all four teams in the division share a 2-1 record. Despite being on the road, the Steelers are 2.5-point favorites. Looking over the player props for this contest, three different rushing props stand out as the most appealing wagers. Below are our top NFL Thursday Night Football picks for Week 4.
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Best Week 4 NFL Thursday Night Football Picks
(Odds courtesy of DraftKings Sportsbook)
Deshaun Watson Over 29.5 Rushing Yards (-111)
Deshaun Watson has turned back the clock as a runner. He has rushed for 38, 22 and 45 yards through the first three weeks, clearing 29.5 rushing yards in two of those contests.
According to the Fantasy Points Data Suite 2.0, excluding kneel-downs, Watson has toted the rock 20 times for 109 yards (36.3 yards per game), with a 15% designed carry share for the Browns and an 11.1% sneak rate. He’s averaged 3.67 scrambles per game for 26.3 scramble yards per game.
Watson’s scrambling prowess is crucial for his rushing yardage over. First, the Browns could be in a negative game script as underdogs. Second, since posting a -9.9% pass rate over expected (PROE) in Week 1, they’ve had a 0.9% PROE. Conversely, after tossing out Pittsburgh’s Week 1 matchup against the Cooper Rush-led (i.e., not an NFL-caliber quarterback) Falcons, they’ve faced an 8.7% PROE.
Watson should drop back enough to scramble for over 29.5 rushing yards, and there’s a chance he gets some rushing work on designed runs in a crucial AFC North matchup, too.
Quinshon Judkins Under 55.5 Rushing Yards (-115)
Cleveland’s shift in PROE since Week 1 makes sense, given how poorly Quinshon Judkins has run. He recorded season highs for carries (18), rushing yards (70) and longest run (11 yards) against the Panthers in Week 3. The second-year running back had only 54 rushing yards on 24 carries through the first two games.
Judkins has yet to reach four yards per carry in a game this season. Per the Fantasy Points Data Suite 2.0, Judkins has averaged the following numbers:
- 2.95 yards per carry
- 1.19 yards before contact per attempt
- 1.76 yards after contact per attempt
- 4.9% explosive run rate
- 38.1% success rate
- 54.8% stuff rate
Judkins has been dreadful. Entering Week 3, the Panthers allowed the most rushing yards per game (173.5) and the most yards per carry (6.31) to running backs, and Judkins couldn’t even reach the four-yard-per-carry threshold, finishing with only 70 yards, which is unimpressive given the context.
Comparatively, the Steelers have allowed 101 rushing yards per game and 4.33 yards per carry to running backs this season. They’ve faced Bijan Robinson, New England’s backfield, and Chase Brown, all of whom are better than Judkins. Add that the Browns are underdogs, and he should fall short of 55.5 rushing yards for the third time in four games.
Jaylen Warren Over 65.5 Rushing Yards (-113)
Jaylen Warren was used as a workhorse in the backfield without Rico Dowdle in Week 3. He handled 17 of Pittsburgh’s backfield’s 19 carries (89.5%) and recorded all 127 of the backfield’s rushing yards.
Warren had a blistering 7.47 yards per carry and a 17.6% explosive run rate. Before Warren ran roughshod over the Bengals last week, they’d held running backs to 39 rushing yards per game at 2.89 yards per carry, bottling up Tampa Bay’s and Houston’s running backs.
Running backs have carved up the Browns for 106 rushing yards per game and 4.75 yards per carry through three games. The Steelers would be wise to lean on Warren and their running game again this week after his successful showing and their 4.4% PROE in Week 3 following a 6.6% PROE through the first two games.
Warren is a good bet to go over 65.5 rushing yards for the second straight game on Thursday Night Football.
Josh Shepardson is a featured writer at BettingPros. For more from Josh, check out his archive and follow him @BChad50.