We are treated to a two-game playoff slate in the WNBA today. It's the beginning of postseason basketball, and the stars will no doubt be giving their all in an attempt to advance their team into the next round or stave off elimination. Without any further delay, let's jump right into our favorite WNBA picks for Wednesday, September 30th.
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Wednesday’s Best WNBA Picks & Predictions
(Odds courtesy of DraftKings Sportsbook)
Atlanta Dream at Washington Mystics
Taking the points on the Mystics would have been way more comfortable had it not been for DeWanna Bonner catching fire in the second half in Game 1. Washington led by five points at the half and by as many as 11 points. At the end of the third quarter, the Mystics were down 12 points. That's the type of lead you can’t give away in the playoffs. Washington is a young team. Having said that, the experience is a swift reminder of how quickly your fortunes can change.
One minute the Mystics are going into the half up five points as underdogs on the road. Next, they are looking up at a double-digit deficit, resulting in a 15-point loss. Washington let this one get away, and we doubt they’ll do it a second time. The Mystics are 2-0 against the Dream when playing in Washington this season. Atlanta averaged 76.5 points in those two games.
Pick: Washington Mystics +3.5 (-110)
Atlanta Dream at Washington Mystics
We were hoping to get a solid return on both teams to score over 76.5 points. The juice was simply too much for a single bet. That total is now up to 77.5 points, so we had to pivot completely. The under on the combined total points for this contest was the second bet that stood out amongst the rest.
The impression is that Washington seems to pick up scoring due to Atlanta's pace, and being at home should provide some added comfort for the players coming off the bench. Yet, that hasn't been the case this season when the two teams met in Washington. The Mystics and Dream have combined for an average of 155 points over two games in Washington. The Dream have failed to reach 80 points on the road against the Mystics.
It's imperative that Washington emphasizes defense tonight. They do not have Atlanta’s scoring prowess to win this game offensively. These stops will subsequently keep the total score down. Playoff basketball is a different brand of physicality, and the number of easy looks drops drastically. We expect this game to finish with around 155-160 combined points. Effectively staying under the 165.5 total.
Pick: Under 165.5 Points (-105)
Atlanta Dream at Washington Mystics
The scoring production between Shakira Austin and Angel Reese left a lot to be desired when the Mystics and Dream matched up this season. The two incredibly talented forwards combined for 25 points in Game 1, and the regular season numbers weren’t much better.
Austin averaged 16 points over three regular-season games against the Dream. Reese averaged 15 points against the Mystics in the regular season. Reese struggled mightily from the field against Washington. The Dream forward shot 30.6% from the field on an average of 12 attempts per game.
Reese and Austin are locked in a heated rivalry, with each favoring the other in a big game. While that directly opens the door for Kiki Iriafen to score at will, we feel the safer option is to take the under on Austin and Reese on this combo prop.
Pick: Shakira Austin & Angel Reese Under 31.5 Combined Points (-116)
Golden State Valkyries at Dallas Wings
The spread is a little concerning, given that the Valkyries just annihilated the Dallas Wings by 24 points in Game 1. The alleged three-point bump for the home team is understandable. However, this is not a regular-season contest on a random day. This is for the chance to advance in the playoffs. We witnessed Dallas look incredibly outmatched in the opening contest, and it's hard to envision much changing in Game 2.
The Valkyries are 5-0 against the Wings this season, including the postseason. Golden State has won by no fewer than four points in those five games. Golden State won by 18 points when the Valkyries last faced the Wings in Dallas. The Valkyries are 7-3 in their last 10 road games.
Pick: Golden State Valkyries -3.5 (-130)
Golden State Valkyries at Dallas Wings
Following up on the previous selection, the Golden State Valkyries controlled the first contest of this series from the first quarter and never relinquished the lead. The Valkyries led by one point going into the second quarter and dominated from there on out. We expect much of the same today. Betting the first quarter in basketball is extremely volatile. However, Golden State appears ready for a deep playoff run.
The Valkyries have won the first quarter in eight out of their last 10 games - including four consecutive games. Golden State has also led for the first 10 minutes of gameplay in three straight games against Dallas. It's win-or-go-home for the Wings. We just don't see them being able to be in front when the first quarter ends, given the defensive juggernaut that is the Golden State Valkyries. Confidence and aggression sound like a great game plan against the Valkyries until the game starts.
Pick: Golden State Valkyries First-Quarter Moneyline (-125)
