Ladies and Gentlemen, we have finally made it.
The 2023 NFL season has finally arrived, and we are greeted with one heck of a matchup.
The Kansas City Chiefs start their title defense by hosting the Detroit Lions.
The Chiefs look to win their third Championship in five years, while the Lions may have been the most hyped-up team coming into the 2023 Season. They are no longer the basement dwellers of the NFC North. Dan Campbell and the Lions have high expectations this year and have their sights set on the Super Bowl.
There’s no better way to start the NFL season than throwing down on a Same Game Parlay to help build your bankroll.
SGP’s have been among the more popular ways the general public bet on NFL games, especially the primetime games. A great way to build SGP’s is to use player prop bets. Here’s a look at some of my favorite player prop bets and a SGP for Thursday Night Football: Lions vs. Chiefs.
Odds Courtesy of DraftKings Sportsbook.
NFL Thursday Night Football Player Prop Bet Picks
Game Preview
Before injury news to Chris Joes and Travis Kelce, DraftKings has this line at 6.5. There was some slight action on Detroit, where the line dropped to 6. Once Any Reid broke the news to reports that Travis Kelce hyper-extended his knee in practice and his status was uncertain for the season opener, the line came crashing down to 4.5.
You can argue that Travis Kelce is worth 1.5 points, but I think this may be a case of an overreaction. Don’t forget that the Chiefs still have the Andy Reid and Patrick Mahomes duo.
The last time Travis Kelce missed a game was in 2021 against the Steelers. Mahomes went 23/30 for 258 passing yards with three touchdowns and no interceptions. The Chiefs won 36-10. Before you say anything, I know they still had Tyreek Hill then, but he only saw two targets that entire game. h/t @ClevTA on Twitter for that little nugget.
Thursday Night Football Player Prop Bet Picks
Jahmyr Gibbs Over 19.5 Receiving Yards
The Detroit Lions used a first-round pick on Gibbs and didn’t plan on letting him sit and watch for the sidelines. It’s tough to gauge how rookies will be used throughout the first few games of their careers, but make no mistake: Gibbs will be a focal point of this offense.
Lions’ OC Ben Johnson said early last week they plan on using Gibbs in many different ways. Gibbs could see time as a slot receiver due to the lack of depth at the WR position.
In 2022, the Chiefs allowed the most receptions (112) to opposing running backs and the 4th most receiving yards (806) to opposing running backs.
Amon-Ra St. Brown 5+ Receptions
In 16 games last season, St. Brown surpassed five receptions in 12 of them, a 75% hit rate.
In 8 games he played without Jameson Williams, he eclipsed this number 6 times, again with a 75% hit rate.
The Former USC receiver had 146 targets last season, averaging just over nine per game. I’d expect St. Brown to receive double-digit targets tonight in what might be a high-scoring game.
David Montgomery Anytime TD Scorer
As we all know, Jamaal Williams led the NFL in rushing TDs last season with 17. With Willaims heading to New Orleans, that production needs to be replaced. Insert David Montgomery. The Lions signed the former Bears RB to a 3-year, $18M deal this offseason.
As a team, the Lions had the 3rd most rushing touchdowns (23) last season, and I’d expect close to the same.
Chiefs’ DT Chris Jones is still holding out for a new contract and will miss tonight’s game. Losing Jones leaves a massive gap in the middle of the Chiefs’ defensive line. According to PFF, Kansas City finished 18th in rushing defense while Jones had the 2nd highest run defense grade of any interior lineman.
Montgomery should be able to take advantage of this weaker defensive line and hopefully find his way in the endzone.
Thursday Night Football Same Game Parlay Picks
- Chiefs ML
- Jahmyr Gibbs o19.5 Rec. Yards
- Amon-Ra St. Brown 5+ Receptions
- David Montgomery Anytime TD
Parlay Odds: +425
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