Week 1 of the NFL season is upon us, and we have a lot of great games on the schedule for the first Sunday of the year. You can take the easy way out and bet on the favorites to win, but where's the fun in that? Besides, you have a chance to win more money when you bet on underdogs.
This is not necessarily true if you bet the spread, which is why we will stick to the Moneyline when talking about Week 1 NFL underdog picks worth backing this week.
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Best NFL Week 1 Underdog Picks
Pittsburgh Steelers vs. New York Jets
There are questions about both offenses, primarily because of quarterback play. There is no telling what the Steelers are going to get from Aaron Rodgers. If it's the guy from Green Bay, the Steelers will win this one easily. But if it's the same guy the Jets had last season... However, even if Rodgers struggles, there's the question of what the Jets offense will look like with Justin Fields at quarterback.
Both teams had solid defenses in 2024, but I might lean towards the Jets being better this season due to new head coach Aaron Glenn's influence.
I have no faith in either quarterback playing a decent game. But Fields is much more athletic than Rodgers, and the Jets will not hesitate to use him in the running game, giving New York’s offense an edge over Pittsburgh.
Pick: Jets Moneyline (+136 at DraftKings Sportsbook)
Cincinnati Bengals vs. Cleveland Browns
No, I'm not joking. Cincinnati is by far the better of the two teams, but the Bengals’ early-season struggles have become somewhat legendary. They have lost four of their last five openers, including a 24-3 loss to the Browns in 2023. Cincy's track record alone is enough of a reason to consider betting on the Browns, especially at this price point.
The downside here is that the Browns do not have a great offensive line, and Joe Flacco is not very mobile at his age. But we've seen Flacco play great in recent years. Maybe he can do so again.
Cleveland still has a solid defense and one of the best pass-rushers in the league, ready to make it a long day for Joe Burrow. However, a Browns win is contingent on the Bengals getting off to another slow start. If they do, there is a lot of value here. If they don't... well, use bet insurance on this game if you can and want to back the Browns.
Pick: Browns Moneyline (+200 at BetMGM)
Houston Texans vs. Los Angeles Rams
The Texans had a solid defense last season that should be even better this year. After watching C.J. Stroud go through a sophomore slump, it's time to watch him break out in Year Three. Of course, with one of the worst offensive lines in the NFL, that will not be easy.
However, the Texans may catch a break this week. Sean McVay does not play his starters in the preseason, which Mathew Stafford sat out because of a back issue. The Rams will need to knock the rust off, which they haven't done a great job of in the last three years, scoring 10, 13 and 20 points in season openers.
The protection will be questionable, but the Texans will have a decent run game to take pressure off Stroud. Their defense will make it hard for Stafford and the Rams’ offense to knock off the rust and get on track. McVay will have his team playing well, in time, but don't count on this week.
Pick: Texans Moneyline (+136 at DraftKings Sportsbook)
