We mostly treaded water last week, cashing a trio of TD scorers just shy or above 2/1 odds with Justin Jefferson, Jaxson Dart, and Quentin Johnston. I'm largely targeting players in buy-low opportunities here in Week 10, which offers some interesting options due to cluster injuries and trade deadline acquisitions/departures. Similar to Jefferson last week, I've highlighted a few guys with odds that we simply haven't seen in the previous few seasons that certainly aren't reflective of the player's talent or opportunities. These articles have been profitable through the first half of the season, but let's see if we can get hot and have some really big weeks as we officially enter the 2nd half of the 2025 NFL schedule.
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Best NFL Week 10 Anytime Touchdown Scorer Picks
(Odds courtesy of FanDuel Sportsbook)
Jacksonville Jaguars @ Houston Texans
Despite this week's trade to acquire WR Jakobi Meyers, I find it highly likely that Parker Washington will assume WR1 duties for the Jaguars due to the recent injuries of Travis Hunter, Brian Thomas Jr. and TE Brenton Strange. Washington will enter this game as the receiving leader for the Jaguars in terms of receptions, yards, yards after the catch, and plays of 20+ yards. He also saw a major uptick in volume last week, recording his 2nd most targets (10), receptions (4), and receiving yards (52) on the season. Even though Texans QB CJ Stroud will miss this game, I don't necessarily expect the Jaguars to run away with this one, nor does Vegas with the spread currently sitting at essentially a pick em'. The Texans defense the Jaguars will be up against is certainly one of the best in the NFL, but at +240 odds I'll take Parker Washington as the de facto WR1 for the Jaguars in a game that they absolutely need to win in order to keep pace in the AFC playoff picture.
New York Giants @ Chicago Bears
I'm targeting a buy-low opportunity for Bears 2nd-year WR Rome Odunze in this game, as he's fresh off of zero receptions in a game where the Bears put up 47 points against the worst defense in the NFL. Luckily for Odunze and the Bears, they have another A+ matchup against a bottom-5 scoring defense in the Giants which is allowing the 7th-most fantasy points to opposing WRs despite the fact that they're also abysmal defending the run. Odunze leads the Bears in terms of both red zone targets and targets within the 10-yard line, garnering over 25% of targets to all Bears pass catchers in those areas of the field. Odunze has shown the ability to convert his opportunities into points, reeling in five TDs in the Bears' first four games, but the fact that he hasn't scored in their four most recent games are giving us a discount on his odds in this spot. Give me Odunze to have a bounce-back performance against a horrendous Giants defense and break his scoreless streak here in Week 10.
Baltimore Ravens @ Minnesota Vikings
I'm looking at another buy-low opportunity in this game, as Lamar's recent return from injury has inflated his odds to score into a range that we haven't seen in recent years for the 2-time MVP. Lamar didn't really need to use his legs in his return against the Dolphins, in a game the Ravens dominated where he was ruthlessly efficient through the air with four TD passes on only 18 completions. However, in the three games that Lamar was able to suit up against tougher competition this year against the Bills, Chiefs, and Lions, he recorded at least six carries and 35 rushing yards in each contest with his only rushing TD of the year coming in the opener against the Bills. This week's road game against the Vikings should profile much more as one of those "gotta have it” games, with the Ravens sitting around FG favorites Baltimore must win to keep their postseason hopes alive. The aggressive defensive philosophy of Brian Flores also leaves them susceptible to QB scramble opportunities, evident by the 56 points that Lamar dropped on the Dolphins the last time that he saw a Brian Flores-led defense. Lamar becomes much more willing to tote the rock in high-leverage games, and I expect for him to use his legs efficiently this week. Give me Lamar to reach paydirt for the first time since his return from injury.
Cleveland Browns @ New York Jets
Sticking with the theme of buying low, how about Browns WR Jerry Jeudy? Jeudy has had an incredibly frustrating 2025 campaign, failing to eclipse more than five receptions or more than 66 receiving yards in any game this season, with a goose egg in the TD column. It hasn't been because of a lack of opportunities, as Jeudy leads the Browns in terms of red zone targets despite their pretty dynamic TE duo of Fannin Jr. and Njoku. The Browns will face a bottom-6 Jets scoring defense this week at the absolute best time possible, as the Jets just shipped off star defenders Sauce Gardner and Quincy Williams prior to the trade deadline. Rookie RB Quishon Judkins also enters this game a little banged up for the Browns, which could translate into a more pass-heavy offensive attack for Cleveland this Week. At over 3/1 odds in a game which figures to be pretty close based on the spread for the undisputed WR1 in Cleveland against a poor Jets defense which just lost their star CB, I'll take a shot on Jeudy to find the end zone for his first time this season.
New Orleans Saints @ Carolina Panthers
The Saints season is in complete disarray as they are handing the keys over to rookie QB Tyler Shough to play out the string for the remainder of the season. That also means increased opportunities for TE/QB Taysom Hill to shoulder some of the offensive load, who saw a season-high 4 carries for 30 yards including a 29-yard scamper in last week's loss to the Rams. Despite only suiting up for five games this season, Hill has recorded 15% of Saints Red Zone carries, 22% of Saints carries inside the 10-yard line, and a staggering 50% of all Saints carries inside the 5-yard line. Hill has as many TDs as RB Alvin Kamara does on the season, and the Saints are more willing to give Hill the ball the closer they get to the goal line. The Panthers team they'll play on Sunday has also been slightly susceptible to the QB run game, as the 3 three rushing TDs they have conceded to opposing QBs is T-3rd most in the entire NFL. With 11 career receiving TDs, you also can't rule out the possibility of him catching one in the end zone, either. At some pretty juicy odds, I'll take a shot on Hill to find paydirt this Sunday.
Buffalo Bills @ Miami Dolphins
Bills TE Dalton Kincaid's odds seem to be sitting around these same 2/1 odds on a weekly basis, despite the fact that he's coming off of an incredible six reception, 100+ yard performance where he recorded a TD in a huge AFC clash against the Chiefs. Speaking of TDs, Kincaid has already scored against the Dolphins this season in a game where he reeled in five catches on six targets for 66 yards. That's nothing new against this bottom-10 Dolphins scoring defense that has really struggled to defend the TE position this season, allowing the 6th-most fantasy points and T-2nd most TDs to opposing TEs of any team in the NFL. While Kincaid isn't among the top dawgs in terms of red zone targets for the Bills, he has a reception of 18+ yards in every game and a reception of 20+ yards in all but one game this season, which is quite rare from the TE position. I love for Kincaid to score for the 2nd straight week, and for a 2nd time this year against a Dolphins defense that has had absolutely no answer for the TE position this season.
New England Patriots @ Tampa Bay Buccaneers
Patriots TE Hunter Henry has been featured in my articles throughout the season, but I'm pivoting to Patriots TE2 Austin Hooper to get in the end zone this weekend. For starters, with one of the highest totals on the board this Sunday (just shy of 50) in what figures to be a very pass-heavy game from both teams, I expect for plenty of points to be scored. While Hooper isn't a high-volume target in the Patriots offense, he has been an extremely efficient target, catching all but one of his targets on the season. He has as many red zone targets as WR Kayshon Boutte, and converted his only target inside the 10-yard line into a TD in a game which I took his counterpart Hunter Henry as my best bet. The odds for most of the other viable scoring options are deflated due to the scoring opportunities that should abound in this game, but I think there's still some great value at over 4/1 odds on Hooper in this spot. He only needs one target to get it done because of how automatic he's been catching the ball this season, so I'll take him to snipe another TD from Henry in what should be a really fun game this weekend.
Arizona Cardinals @ Seattle Seahawks
QB Jacoby Brissett is one of the best things to ever happen to Cardinals star TE Trey McBride, who has been on the receiving end of four of Brissett's six passing TDs in the previous three weeks, compared to his one receiving TD with Kyler Murray in the five games prior. His targets and receptions have gone up as well, garnering 11+ targets twice with Brissett at the helm compared to only one such game with Kyler, and he has caught 8+ balls from Brissett twice compared to zero such games from Kyler. McBride's 16 red zone targets are the 2nd-most in the entire NFL and account for 40% of all red zone targets to Cardinals receivers, and his seven targets inside the 10-yard line are T-6th in the NFL and also account for 40% of all targets inside the 10 to Cardinals pass-catchers. The Cardinals figure to be in a trailing game script this Sunday as well, which should lead to them chasing points and increase the scoring opportunities for McBride. As a high-volume target in this offense with an emphasis around the scoring area and a newfound connection with Jacoby Brissett, I absolutely love for McBride to stay hot and score again this Sunday.
Los Angeles Rams @ San Francisco 49ers
I don't always love playing the guys sitting around even odds for anytime TDs, but when's the last time that we saw Rams RB Kyren Williams with anything other than minus odds to score? Sure, he's not putting up the same outrageous TD numbers that we saw in his previous two seasons, but the opportunities are still absolutely there. Williams ranks 7th in the NFL with 24 Red Zone attempts, T-5th in the NFL with 14 attempts inside the 10, and 5th in the NFL with 10 attempts inside the 5. He’s a massive threat out of the backfield as well, with eight career receiving TDs including three this season. In fact, he's T-3rd in this offense with Tyler Higbee in terms of red zone targets behind WRs Davante Adams and Puka Nacua. The 49ers defense they'll be playing is decimated with injuries, namely to debatably the best LB in the league in Fred Warner as well as DE Nick Bosa, so I expect for the Rams to be able to establish the run game. They're also favored in this matchup, which should set up a more run-heavy game script, and the total is one of the highest on the board at 49.5 which should lean toward more scoring opportunities for both teams. Williams has also absolutely feasted against the 49ers in his career, with seven total TDs in four games against San Francisco. He's scored multiple TDs in three of those games as well, so I don't hate an escalator play of multiple TDs for Williams, either. Anything at or around even odds is a play on Kyren for me this week, who I think is severely mispriced in this spot.
Detroit Lions @ Washington Commanders
The Lions have been extremely vulnerable to opposing wideouts this season, surrendering the 6th most fantasy points per game to opposing wideouts including 12 receiving TDs, which is T-3rd most in the NFL. I attacked this angle last week with Vikings WR1 Justin Jefferson, and I'm going right back to the well this week with Commanders WR1 Deebo Samuel, who has been one of the lone bright spots for a very disappointing Commanders team. Deebo leads the Commanders in terms of red zone targets (7), which accounts for 1/3 of all targets to Commanders receivers, as well as targets inside the 10-yard line (3), which accounts for 37% of all targets to Commanders receivers in that range. Add in the fact that he's also converted a rushing TD on his only red zone carry, and there are just a multitude of ways to get Deebo the ball in scoring position. In another game projected to have plenty of points with a total just shy of 50, give me Deebo to find the end zone at 2/1 odds as the most dynamic offensive weapon on this Commanders offense.
