Someone must score the first touchdown of the game. This article will help you increase your odds of hitting on that player based on matchups and team strengths. It will feature a selection for each game of the Sunday slate.
I will track my plays here on BettingPros. Let's get to the first touchdown scorer predictions for NFL Week 12.
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NFL Week 12 First Touchdown Scorer Picks & Predictions
Tampa Bay Buccaneers @ New York Giants
The Giants allow 147.1 rushing yards per game and 5.3 yards per rush attempt. Bucky Irving averages 5.1 yards per attempt this season and just had 13 carries for 73 yards and a touchdown against the 49ers before the bye week.
Irving is also involved in the passing game, with 2.8 targets per game. Tommy DeVito is starting for the Giants this week, so it is difficult to pick a player from that offense. Irving has the best matchup on either side of the ball and has been productive when he touches the ball.
Pick: Bucky Irving (+750 via FanDuel Sportsbook)
Detroit Lions @ Indianapolis Colts
The Lions allow 5.2 first-quarter points per game to opponents this season, but it has not mattered much because they average 33.6 points. The Colts average 4.6 points per first quarter but only allow 3.9 points. The Lions also allow quarterbacks to run for 6.45 yards per attempt. Anthony Richardson averages 5.4 yards per attempt.
Richardson must make plays with his legs to keep this game close because the Lions have a good pass defense. They have allowed teams to throw for just seven passing touchdowns this season while recording 14 interceptions. Richardson and Jonathan Taylor will have to run the ball well if they want to be competitive in this game. Richardson provides more value to score first.
Pick: Anthony Richardson (+1300 via FanDuel Sportsbook)
Tennessee Titans @ Houston Texans
The Texans have not allowed a point in the first quarter in their last three games. The Titans have been trending in the right direction on offense but are still having trouble finding the end zone. They averaged 16.7 points per game over their last three games, while the Texans averaged 23.3 points.
Nico Collins had four catches for 54 yards in his return from injury last week, but that does not tell the full story. He scored on a 77-yard touchdown pass on the first play from scrimmage, but it was negated because of a penalty.
Joe Mixon went on to score first, but Collins should have immediately made his presence known. The Titans should allow more passing opportunities this week. I expect Collins to have a big game as this offense tries to find its stride to end the season.
Pick: Nico Collins (+675 via Caesars Sportsbook)
New England Patriots @ Miami Dolphins
The Dolphins have been much better with Tua Tagovailoa under center. They average 18.1 points per game this season but have scored 28 in their last three games. De'Von Achane has been the lead back over the past three weeks, playing 67% of snaps in that span.
Achane also averages 13.7 rushing attempts and 5.7 targets over the last three games. The Patriots allow 128.4 rushing yards per game and 4.4 yards per attempt. He has the highest upside of any player for the Dolphins and should be utilized a lot. He is the favorite to score for a reason and is worth backing this week.
Pick: De'Von Achane (+375 via Caesars Sportsbook)
Dallas Cowboys @ Washington Commanders
The Cowboys have taken a step back with Cooper Rush at quarterback. They are only scoring 12.3 points per game over their last three games, while the Commanders have scored 24 per game in that span. Brian Robinson Jr. ran 16 times for 63 yards and scored a touchdown against the Eagles in his return from injury last week.
Robinson should dominate in this matchup. The Cowboys allow 151 rushing yards per game and 4.7 yards per attempt. Robinson has 27 rushing attempts in the red zone this season and has scored seven times, both of which lead the team. He should have a great game and will likely find the end zone first.
Pick: Brian Robinson Jr. (+450 via DraftKings Sportsbook)
Minnesota Vikings @ Chicago Bears
Justin Jefferson started the season scoring a touchdown in each of his first four games but has only scored once (Week 7) since. The Vikings lead the league with 8.2 points per first quarter, and the Bears are tied for last with 1.3 points.
The Bears are solid against the pass, but Jefferson is matchup-proof. He has received 14 targets in the red zone this season, with three touchdowns to show for it. I expect the Vikings to get Jefferson the ball early and often in this divisional matchup.
Pick: Justin Jefferson (+600 via DraftKings Sportsbook)
Kansas City Chiefs @ Carolina Panthers
Isiah Pacheco has only logged limited practices this week and is questionable to return from an ankle injury that put him on injured reserve (IR) since Week 3. The Chiefs also play on Friday next week, so it would make sense for the Chiefs to keep him out one more week.
Kareem Hunt should be the workhorse if Pacheco does not play. The Panthers are the best matchup for running backs and should be an easy game for the Chiefs, which also is a reason for Pacheco to sit out. The Panthers allow 160.1 rushing yards per game and 4.6 yards per attempt. They have also allowed 17 rushing touchdowns this season. Hunt is a solid play and should be taken now if Pacheco is ruled out and Hunt's value vanishes.
Pick: Kareem Hunt (+410 via FanDuel Sportsbook)
Denver Broncos @ Las Vegas Raiders
The Raiders have been productive in the first quarter this season despite averaging 18.7 points per game. They have scored 5.7 points per first quarter in their last three games, while the Broncos have scored 2.3 per game in that span.
Ameer Abdullah is next up for the Raiders at running back, with Alexander Mattison (ankle) and Zamir White (quad) dealing with injuries. They both missed practice all week, which means Abdullah should get the No. 1 RB workload. He averages two targets per game this season and should be involved a lot as a runner and pass-catcher this week. He can make a difference in both areas against this tough Broncos defense.
Pick: Ameer Abdullah (+850 via DraftKings Sportsbook)
Arizona Cardinals @ Seattle Seahawks
The Seahawks have been struggling early in games lately. They averaged one point per first quarter over their last three games, while the Cardinals are scoring seven points per first quarter in their last three games. Marvin Harrison Jr. could get the bye-week bump in his rookie season.
The Cardinals need him to be a difference-maker down the stretch to lock up the NFC West, which they lead by one game. He has scored six times this season, with two first-touchdown scores. He has been underwhelming for fantasy but has found the end zone in 56% of his games. Harrison is a solid play against an average Seahawks pass defense.
Pick: Marvin Harrison Jr. (+1200 via FanDuel Sportsbook)
San Francisco 49ers @ Green Bay Packers
Christian McCaffrey has been solid since returning from injury but has not found the end zone. He has 16 rushing attempts and six targets per game in those two games, with 106.5 total yards per game. He has played 91% of offensive snaps since returning.
It is only a matter of time before McCaffrey finds the end zone, and this is the best value on his first touchdown prop line in a long time. The Packers allow 149.9 rushing yards per game this season, which is fourth-worst. I expect McCaffrey to have his first great game of the season in a must-win game for the 5-5 49ers.
Pick: Christian McCaffrey (+550 via FanDuel Sportsbook)
