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NFL Week 16 Early Lines vs. Line Movement Predictions (2022)

by December 19, 2022
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Week 15 saw some of the craziest finishes of the 2022 season.

On Saturday, the Minnesota Vikings erased a 33-point deficit to win the NFC North and break the record for the biggest comeback in NFL history. On Sunday, the Jacksonville Jaguars beat the Dallas Cowboys in overtime. The Detroit Lions took down the New York Jets for their sixth win in seven games, and the New England Patriots may have lateralled their way out of a postseason against the Las Vegas Raiders. 

Here is a look at some early Week 16 lines and where you should expect them to move.

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NFL Week 16 Early Lines vs. Line Movement Predictions (2022)

Jacksonville Jaguars at New York Jets

For the second week in a row, the Jets are barely favored as the home team against a red-hot opponent. The Jaguars have won three of four, defeating the Cowboys, the Tennessee Titans and Baltimore Ravens during that stretch. The Jets have lost four of five, but each has been by one score or less.

Last week, the Jets opened as favorites, then became underdogs when it was announced that Zach Wilson would get the start. Eventually, the Jets went off as favorites. Wilson didn’t look bad against the Lions, and the Jets’ defense looked excellent until their final defensive stand of the game. With that in mind, and with the Jets the home team on Thursday night, look for this number to inch toward the key number.

Current Line: Jets -1

Predicted Final Line: Jets -2

New York Giants at Minnesota Vikings

The Vikings pulled off the miracle of all miracles when they erased a 33-0 halftime deficit to pick up their 11th win of the season. They will now be taking on a New York Giants team that took a massive step toward the playoffs when they took down the Washington Commanders on Sunday night.

Neither of these teams have looked as good as their records suggest of late, yet they have continued to win games and position themselves for the postseason. The Vikings now have 10 wins in one-possession games, while the Giants have only been a part of three games all season that were decided by more than one score.

The Giants are getting the hook right now. Since neither of these teams has been consistent, look for the number to drop to the key number ahead of kickoff.

Current Line: Vikings -3.5

Predicted Final Line: Vikings -3

Philadelphia Eagles at Dallas Cowboys

With the Cowboys’ loss to the Jaguars last week, this matchup becomes a little less intriguing. The Eagles will wrap up the NFC East with a victory, but even if they lose, it would still take a near miracle for the Cowboys to win the division.

The Cowboys are actually favored in this one despite the Eagles having the best record in football and on the verge of clinching the top seed in the NFC. After the Cowboys’ ugly loss in Week 15, preceded by an ugly game against the Houston Texans, look for bettors to favor the away team, ultimately making Philadelphia the favorites.

Current Line: Cowboys -1

Predicted Final Line: Eagles -1.5

Washington Commanders at San Francisco 49ers

After losing at home to the Giants, the Commanders are in serious danger of missing the playoffs, as the Lions and Seattle Seahawks are both breathing down their neck with three weeks to go. 

The 49ers are the hottest team in football, winning their last seven games. During that span, only one of their games was decided by fewer than seven points. They have been destroying their opponents and playing phenomenally on both sides of the ball.

Washington has been a pesky team this season, but the 49ers are starting to look like Super Bowl favorites. After what the Commanders did in primetime, it’s hard to imagine them getting support to drop this below the key number.

Current Line: 49ers -7

Predicted Final Line: 49ers -8

Tampa Bay Buccaneers at Arizona Cardinals

The Buccaneers continue to hold a one-game lead in the NFC South despite losing three of their last four games and having a record of just 6-8. They will now travel to Arizona to take on the Cardinals in a primetime Christmas Day matchup. A win would go a long way in securing their postseason spot.

Without Kyler Murray, the Cardinals looked bad against the stout Denver Broncos’ defense in Week 15. With Murray out for the season, it’s unlikely the Cardinals will ever be favored again in 2022. But should they be more than field goal home underdogs against a team that has been terrible over the last month of the season?

Expect this line to move between 4.5 and 3.5 a lot this week, but never get down to the key number.

Current Line: Buccaneers -4

Predicted Final Line:  Buccaneers -3.5

Los Angeles Chargers at Indianapolis Colts

How does a team rebound from what the Colts went through in Week 15? After leading 33-0 at halftime, they fell 39-36 in overtime, and they now have to play against the red-hot Chargers on “Monday Night Football.”

The Chargers are 3.5-point road favorites. Though the Colts are getting the hook, expect this number to grow throughout the week. After such a demoralizing loss, and with the Chargers finally playing up to their potential, this game has blowout written all over it, even if it’s being played in Indianapolis.

Current Line: Chargers -3.5

Predicted Final Line: Chargers -4.5

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