Strap in, football fans. Week 17 brings us the last full slate of meaningful football before the end of the season. The theme for today's card is buying low, and I've got a few top-tier wide receivers overdue to get into the end zone after hot starts to the season. I'm also targeting a few players with odds that are just flat-out mispriced based on recent performance and stellar matchups, which I have endorsed for multi-touchdown sprinkles. Let's soak this week in and cap off the holiday season by cashing some NFL Week 17 anytime touchdown scorer picks.
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Best NFL Week 17 Anytime Touchdown Scorer Picks
(Odds courtesy of FanDuel Sportsbook)
Pittsburgh Steelers @ Cleveland Browns
Harold Fannin Jr. (TE – CLE) | +340
Browns rookie tight end Harold Fannin Jr. has caught on fire down the stretch with four receiving touchdowns in his previous five games and five receiving touchdowns in his previous eight games. The Browns even mixed him into their version of the tush push, as he carried the ball into the end zone against the Bills last week. Importantly, Fannin has been the go-to option around the goal line on this Browns offense, leading the team in red-zone targets and targets inside the 10-yard line.
Fannin also has a sneaky great matchup against a Steelers defense that has turned a blind eye to the tight end position this season. Pittsburgh has allowed the fifth-most receiving yards, the fourth-most fantasy points and tied for the third-most touchdowns allowed to tight ends. His odds are pretty crazy for a versatile, high-volume and high-leverage tight end to find the end zone in an excellent matchup against Pittsburgh this week.
New England Patriots @ New York Jets
Stefon Diggs has flown under the radar this season, hauling in a solid 76 receptions for 869 yards. He just busted out of a mini slump in the Patriots’ most recent game against Baltimore, exploding for 138 yards on nine receptions after hauling in a combined eight receptions in his previous three games. Diggs is also in the midst of a scoreless streak, failing to find the end zone for five straight games after ripping off three touchdowns in as many games during a midseason stretch.
I find good reason to believe that streak ends this week, as Diggs will face off against a pretty hapless Jets defense allowing the third-most points per game. Diggs already had success against them earlier in the season, recording 105 yards on nine receptions.
The high-leverage targets are still there for Diggs as well, as he ranks just behind Hunter Henry in red-zone targets and targets inside the 10-yard line, garnering 20% of all targets to Patriots pass-catchers in both categories. Fellow wideout Kayshon Boutte will miss this game, increasing the pass-catching opportunities for Diggs this week. I love Diggs to break his scoreless drought and get back into the end zone against a team he already shredded earlier in the season.
New Orleans Saints @ Tennessee Titans
Chimere Dike (WR – TEN) | +260
Chimere Dike has had a really strong rookie campaign for the Titans, transitioning from a sole role as a returner at the beginning of the season to a viable receiver option down the stretch. As a returner, Dike is one of the more electrifying in the league, earning a Pro Bowl selection with two punt return touchdowns and a 71-yard kickoff return under his belt this season. As a receiver, Dike has really formed some chemistry with fellow rookie Cam Ward, scoring three receiving touchdowns in the last five games. They also like to give him opportunities out of the backfield, as Dike has 10 rushing attempts on the season.
Dike also leads all Titans pass-catchers in both red-zone targets and targets inside the 10-yard line, garnering 31% and 22% of those respective targets in the Tennessee offense. For what it's worth, three of his four receiving touchdowns have come at home, which is where this matchup will be played. I find these odds too long for the dynamic Dike to get into the end zone, considering he has multiple avenues to touch the football and can truly score from anywhere on the field.
Jacksonville Jaguars @ Indianapolis Colts
Michael Pittman Jr. (WR – IND) | +260
Much like the aforementioned Stefon Diggs, Colts receiver Michael Pittman Jr. is in the midst of a four-game scoreless streak after scoring six touchdowns in the Colts’ first eight games and seven in the first 11. His scoreless streak has run parallel to the Colts’ five-game losing streak, which has coincided with Daniel Jones’ initial injury, followed by the Achilles injury and transition to Philip Rivers at quarterback. Rivers has proven to be competent under center, though, especially in their most recent game against the 49ers, where he tossed for 277 yards and two touchdowns to Alec Pierce.
I'm going with Pittman this week, though, as the second-most frequent Colts target inside the 10-yard line with 20% of all targets to Indianapolis pass-catchers. Pittman had a really nice game in the first matchup between these division foes, recording 79 yards on nine receptions in a game where Riley Leonard played a significant portion in relief of Jones.
Pittman also had a touchdown called back in that game because of an absolutely ridiculous offensive pass interference call, which I was closely monitoring because I also gave out Pittman for my best bet in that game. Pittman gets his revenge on the Jacksonville defense and scores this week, at odds longer than they were when these teams played three weeks ago.
Tampa Bay Buccaneers @ Miami Dolphins
Buccaneers rookie wide receiver Emeka Egbuka is in the midst of a really disappointing six-game stretch, failing to eclipse five receptions or 64 yards with zero touchdowns in any of those contests. Injuries to fellow wideouts Mike Evans, Chris Godwin and Jalen McMillan have impacted Egbuka's usage. However, he does still lead the team in red-zone targets and targets inside the 10-yard line, with 20% of targets of each type going his way.
I also don't hate the fact that Tampa receivers have returned to the lineup, as three of Egbuka's touchdowns this season came in the first three weeks when Evans was active. I also expect the Buccaneers to get some extra possessions in this game against a Dolphins team that just gave up 45 points in large part due to three turnovers in Quinn Ewers' first start under center. Egbuka's odds are back to a playable range after he dropped all the way down into the +120 to +130 range during the middle of the season. I'm more than happy to buy low in a game I expect Tampa Bay to absolutely dominate.
Seattle Seahawks @ Carolina Panthers
Tetairoa McMillan (WR – CAR) | +200
It took rookie Tetairoa McMillan a little while to break the seal in the touchdown column, but they've started to come in bunches down the stretch. McMillan has five receiving touchdowns in as many games, which is pretty impressive considering he has two receptions or fewer in three of those five games. That's reflected in his high-leverage targets, as McMillan is the clear leader in the clubhouse in terms of red-zone targets and targets inside the 10-yard line, with nearly a quarter of all targets to Panthers pass-catchers in each category going his way.
The only thing I don't like about this play is the matchup, as the Seahawks bring in one of the best defenses in the entire NFL, but that's at least giving us a discount on McMillan’s odds, which have been sitting closer to the +150 range over the previous few weeks. I'll take McMillan to stay hot and find paydirt for the sixth time in as many weeks at anything 2/1 or better in a pretty important matchup regarding the NFC playoff picture.
Arizona Cardinals @ Cincinnati Bengals
Trey McBride (TE – ARI) | +110
Trey McBride at anything even odds or better is flat out ridiculous considering how historically bad the Bengals defense has been when it comes to defending the tight end position this season. The Bengals rank dead last in all of the following categories against tight ends:
- Yards per game (90.8)
- Fantasy points per game (18.49)
- Yards (1,362)
- Touchdowns (15)
That's not going to bode well for them against the best tight end in the game, as McBride has been absolutely on fire with nine touchdowns in Arizona's previous 10 games.
McBride is an absolute target monster where it matters most, ranking third in the entire NFL in red-zone targets and sixth in the NFL in terms of targets inside the 10-yard line. The fact that McBride didn't score last week makes me more confident he'll find paydirt this week. I don't understand how these odds aren't closer to -150. McBride is my favorite anytime touchdown scorer pick this week, and I'd endorse a ladder on two or more and three or more touchdowns as well.
New York Giants @ Las Vegas Raiders
Darius Slayton (WR – NYG) | +310
I'm taking a shot on Giants receiver Darius Slayton to reel in a touchdown in what should be a really good matchup against the NFL's eighth-worst scoring defense. The Raiders have been especially vulnerable to the receiver position, ranking in the bottom half of the NFL in terms of fantasy points allowed to wideouts, ranking in the bottom 10 in terms of yardage allowed to opposing receivers. They are also tied for allowing the seventh-most touchdowns to opposing wideouts on the season.
Raiders All-Everything defensive end Maxx Crosby will also not suit up for this game, which will undoubtedly make things easier for rookie quarterback Jaxson Dart and the Giants’ offense. One of Dart's favorite targets, Theo Johnson, will miss this game due to illness, increasing Slayton's opportunities. Slayton will never pop off the stat sheet in terms of targets around the end zone, but boasts an impressive 15.1 yards per catch and has a reception of 18+ yards in two-thirds of the games he has played this season. I don't necessarily find any of the Giants’ pass-catchers to be significantly more likely to score than any of the others, so I'll take Slayton to score on an explosive play against a vulnerable Raiders defense on Sunday.
Philadelphia Eagles @ Buffalo Bills
Saquon Barkley (RB – PHI) | +100
We've seen flashes of the 2024 Saquon Barkley in recent weeks. He has recorded rushing touchdowns in three straight games with rushes of 48+ yards in two of the three games. Barkley and the Eagles have a sneaky great matchup against a Bills defense that has been gashed on the ground this season, conceding the sixth-most fantasy points, fourth-most rushing yards and a league-leading 18 rushing touchdowns to opposing running backs on the season.
We saw a pretty similar explosion back in TreVeyon Henderson absolutely explode against the Bills two weeks ago, rushing for touchdowns of 52 and 65 yards. While Jalen Hurts certainly can snipe some of Barkley's touchdowns at the goal line, Barkley is still responsible for 50% of all Eagles carries inside the red zone and 10-yard line, respectively. For what it's worth, these same stats apply to Hurts if you'd rather take him to score at a slightly longer number. I just can't pass up on Barkley at even money against debatably the NFL's worst rush defense. I don't hate parlaying him with Hurts to score or laddering Barkley up to two or more touchdowns and three or more touchdowns. Give me Barkley to hit another home run and score (at least) his fourth touchdown in as many games.
