NFL Week 17 Line Movement Analysis (2023)

Tracking how lines move throughout an NFL week can provide meaningful information to bettors. In general, lines become more sharp throughout the week as the sportsbook collects more information.

Each game will have its reasoning for movement (e.g., injuries, betting activity, weather, etc.) and varying degrees of impact on the line.

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NFL Week 17 Line Movement Analysis

The table below is intended to summarize the home team spread and total movement for this week’s games to help provide context for any significant movements.

		Home Spread			Total
Away	Home	Open	Current	Diff	Open	Current	Diff
MIA	BAL	-3.5	-3	0.5	47	47	0
NE	BUF	-12	-13	-1	40.5	40	-0.5
ATL	CHI	-3	-3	0	37.5	38	0.5
NYJ	CLE	-7.5	-7	0.5	36	34	-2
DET	DAL	-6	-5.5	0.5	53.5	53.5	0
LAC	DEN	-5.5	-3.5	2	38.5	37	-1.5
TEN	HOU	-3.5	-5	-1.5	42.5	44	1.5
LV	IND	-3	-3.5	-0.5	44	43.5	-0.5
CAR	JAX	-7	-6.5	0.5	37.5	38	0.5
CIN	KC	-7	-6.5	0.5	44.5	44	-0.5
GB	MIN	-1.5	-1	0.5	46	44.5	-1.5
LAR	NYG	6.5	5.5	-1	42	44	2
ARI	PHI	-10.5	-11	-0.5	47.5	48.5	1
PIT	SEA	-3.5	-3.5	0	41.5	41	-0.5
NO	TB	-3	-2.5	0.5	42.5	43	0.5
SF	WAS	13.5	12.5	-1	48.5	50	1.5

(Lines per DraftKings Sportsbook | Line movement via @betstamp | Open odds as of Tuesday morning | Current odds as of Thursday evening)

NFL Week 17 Spread Movement Analysis

Tennessee Titans at Houston Texans: -3.5 ?' -5

The Texans will get breakout rookie QB C.J. Stroud back this week after missing the past two games with a concussion. They are alive for a playoff spot and will need Stroud to return to pre-injury form. The Texans had won four of their previous five games prior to the Week 14 game that Stroud was injured in. Meanwhile, the Titans may get back their own rookie quarterback this week as well. The Titans offense has not scored more than 17 points the past couple weeks, which has led to back-to-back losses.

Los Angeles Chargers at Denver Broncos: -5.5 ?' -3.5

The Broncos announced that Russell Wilson will not be the starter for the remainder of the season due to contract implications. Jarrett Stidham will take over for the Broncos, who also may be missing leading wide receiver Courtland Sutton this week. The line movement makes sense considering the changes on Denver’s side over the course of the week. Both teams have struggled over the last few weeks, but the Chargers did put up a fight against a superior Bills team at home. It will be interesting to see if this line continues to move in the Chargers favor by Sunday.

NFL Week 17 Total Movement Analysis

San Francisco 49ers at Washington Commanders: 48.5 ?' 50

The Commanders will start veteran quarterback Jacoby Brissett this week. The total movement upwards could be a combination of this change as well as factoring in how bad the Commanders defense has been recently. Washington is allowing 34.7 ppg over their past six games. That is six points more than the next closest team, Philadelphia, during that stretch. The 49ers offense is second in the NFL averaging 32.3 ppg during that same stretch and are primed for a bounce back after a blow out loss at home to the Ravens.

Green Bay Packers at Minnesota Vikings: 46 ?' 44.5

In a theme of Week 17 in the NFL, another quarterback will takeover for their respective team. In this matchup it is rookie quarterback Jaren Hall taking over for journeyman Nick Mullens in an important NFC North matchup. Hall will look to have better luck than his last start in Week 9 when he was injured early in the game before Josh Dobbs took over for the Vikings. Both teams have been involved in high scoring games recently, so it is surprising to see this line drop. The total points scored has not been under 50 points for either of these two teams the last two weeks. That said, the last time they played it was a low scoring win for the Vikings 24 – 10 in Week 8.

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