Greetings, friends. Welcome to Week 2 of my weekly NFL sports betting column. By my count, we went 48-38 last week. The total units are a little tricky to calculate because it included a bunch of cross-sport parlays and because I used some of those picks multiple times in different slips. So, I have to decide how to tabulate that for the sake of the column. But overall, we did well. Could have been a lot better, but could have been much worse.
By a conservative estimate, we’re up 4.9 units at about a 5.9% ROI. It’s a little bit more than that if you count cross-sport parlays, but we’ll keep it to NFL for the sake of the column here.
Here is my Week 1 article if you want to go back and take a look. I explain a bit more about my process there.
Now, let’s get to some Week 2 bets.
- Best +EV NFL Picks
- NFL Prop Bet Cheat Sheet
- Tail Sharp NFL Bettors at Better Prices
- Optimize Your PrizePicks Prop Plays
NFL Week 2 Best Bets: Updated Picks
Since I post a high volume of picks, I’ll share a table version of the picks first. I’ll add to this throughout the week as I add more picks. Where relevant, I’ll add some notes below the table to provide additional context. But know that, for the most part, I am betting prices with a focus on +EV (expected value) compared to sharp sportsbooks and following sharp liquidity on prediction markets.
You’ll notice I am often pretty heavy on Underdog. That’s intentional. Underdog changed their payout structure several weeks ago, and four-pick flex plays now pay out ~-107 odds, the best in the pickem industry, and better odds than you’ll get at most sportsbooks for a lot of those props. Yes, you have to parlay them, but we’re worried about the value of each individual pick. The math works out in the end with volume. I explain this in more detail in the PrizePicks and Underdog section below, but always remember that we are betting the PRICE. If you want to bet any of these, make sure you are getting a price very similar or better to what I have here (or monitor how the market has moved, but that is a bit more complicated).
| Player / Team / Game | Side | Line | Market | Odds | Book |
| D.J. Moore | Over | 34.5 | Receiving Yards | -119 | PrizePicks |
| Kirk Cousins | Under | 198.5 | Passing Yards | -107 | Underdog |
| Marvin Harrison | Over | 2.5 | Receptions | -119 | PrizePicks |
| Ashton Jeanty | Under | 17.5 | Rush Attempts | -119 | PrizePicks |
| Dontayvion Wicks | Over | 26.5 | Receiving Yards | -119 | PrizePicks |
| Jalen Coker | Under | 4.5 | Receptions | -107 | Underdog |
| Panthers vs. Falcons | Panthers | ML | Moneyline | -120 | FanDuel |
| Keon Coleman | Over | 1.5 | Receptions | 178 | Underdog |
| Aaron Rodgers | Over | 206.5 | Passing Yards | -107 | Underdog |
| Carson Wentz | Over | 1.5 | Passing TDs | 167 | Underdog |
| Justin Jefferson | Over | 73.5 | Receiving Yards | -107 | Underdog |
| Buccaneers vs. Browns | Buccaneers | -7.5 | Spread | -115 | Novig |
| Marshawn Lloyd | Under | 14.5 | Rush Attempts | -109 | Betr |
| Geno Smith | Under | 30.5 | Pass Attempts | -109 | Betr |
| Sione Vaki | Under | 5.5 | Rushing Yards | -109 | Betr |
| Jonathan Taylor | Under | 19.5 | Rush Attempts | -109 | Betr |
| Trevor Lawrence | Over | 0.5 | Interceptions | -109 | Betr |
| Amon-Ra St. Brown | Under | 7.5 | Receptions | -107 | Underdog |
| Jayden Reed | Over | 37.5 | Receiving Yards | -107 | Underdog |
| Javonte Williams | Under | 17.5 | Rush Attempts | -107 | Underdog |
| Davante Adams | Over | 44.5 | Receiving Yards | -107 | Underdog |
| Bijan Robinson | Under | 18.5 | Rush Attempts | -107 | Underdog |
| Roman Wilson | Over | 17.5 | Receiving Yards | -107 | Underdog |
| Josh Allen | Over | 248.5 | Passing Yards | -107 | Underdog |
| Pat Freiermuth | Over | 25.5 | Receiving Yards | -107 | Underdog |
| Patrick Mahomes | Under | 20.5 | Completions | -107 | Underdog |
| Jaxson Dart | Under | 20.5 | Completions | -107 | Underdog |
| Malik Willis | Under | 184.5 | Passing Yards | -119 | PrizePicks |
| Adonai Mitchell | Over | 33.5 | Receiving Yards | -107 | Underdog |
| Dallas Goedert | Over | 3.5 | Receptions | -107 | Underdog |
| Omarion Hampton | Over | 62.5 | Rushing Yards | -107 | Underdog |
| Bengals vs. Texans | Under | 23.5 | 1st Half Total | -121 | Novig |
| Jayden Daniels | Over | 216.5 | Passing Yards | -113 | DraftKings |
| Panthers vs. Falcons | Over | 43.5 | Total Points | -110 | theScore Bet |
| Joshua Palmer | Under | 11.5 | Receiving Yards | -107 | Underdog |
| Caleb Williams | Over | 226.5 | Passing Yards | -107 | Underdog |
| Derrick Henry | Over | 19.5 | Rush Attempts | -107 | Underdog |
| Aaron Rodgers | Over | 13.05 | FantasyPoints | -107 | Underdog |
| Cooper Rush | Under | 32.5 | Longest Pass Comp. | -107 | Underdog |
| Mike Evans | Over | 48.5 | Receiving Yards | -107 | Underdog |
| Darnell Washington | Over | 13.5 | Receiving Yards | -107 | Underdog |
| Jayden Daniels | Over | 29.5 | Pass Attempts | -107 | Underdog |
| George Holani | Under | 32.5 | Rushing Yards | -107 | Underdog |
| Xavier Hutchinson | Over | 2.5 | Receptions | -128 | Onyx Odds |
| Aaron Jones | Under | 15.5 | Rush Attempts | -107 | Underdog |
| Jacoby Brissett | Under | 34.5 | Pass Attempts | -107 | Underdog |
| Daniel Jones | Under | 31.5 | Longest Pass Comp. | -107 | Underdog |
| Blake Corum | Over | 45.5 | Rushing Yards | -107 | Underdog |
| Jayden Daniels | Over | 19.5 | Passes Completed | -107 | Underdog |
| Mike Washington | Under | 5.5 | Rush Attempts | -107 | Underdog |
| Jordan Love | Over | 1.5 | Passing TDs | -107 | Underdog |
| Deebo Samuel | Over | 5.75 | FantasyPoints | -107 | Underdog |
| Tyler Loop | Over | 7.5 | Kicking Points | -119 | PrizePicks |
| Mason Taylor | Under | 2.5 | Receptions | -107 | Underdog |
| Ronnie Rivers | Over | 0.5 | Touchdowns | 4000 | Onyx Odds |
| Kyle Monangai | Under | 10.5 | Receiving Yards | -107 | Underdog |
| Chris Brooks | Under | 6.5 | Rush Attempts | -107 | Underdog |
| Trevor Lawrence | Under | 38.5 | Longest Pass Comp. | -107 | Underdog |
| Jonnu Smith | Under | 13.5 | Receiving Yards | -107 | Underdog |
| Bengals vs. Texans | Texans | ML | Moneyline | -138 | FanDuel |
| Tyquan Thornton | Over | 1.5 | Receptions | 164 | FanDuel |
| Bucky Irving | Over | 2.5 | Receptions | 120 | FanDuel |
| Rachaad White | Under | 2.5 | Receptions | -160 | Hard Rock |
| Derrick Henry | Under | 1.5 | Receptions | -200 | BetMGM |
| Jayden Reed | Over | 3.5 | Receptions | 115 | DraftKings |
| De’Von Achane | Under | 3.5 | Receptions | 122 | Kalshi |
| Patrick Mahomes | Over | 4.5 | Rush Attempts | 145 | Fanatics |
| Alec Pierce | Over | 3.5 | Receptions | 175 | Fanatics |
| LaJohntay Wester | Over | 1.5 | Receptions | 107 | Sleeper |
| Ja’Marr Chase | Over | 6.5 | Receptions | -106 | Sleeper |
| Geno Smith | Under | 20.5 | Pass Completions | -107 | Underdog |
| Mack Hollins | Over | 35.5 | Receiving Yards | -107 | Underdog |
| Lamar Jackson | Under | 27.5 | Pass Attempts | -107 | Underdog |
| Matthew Golden | Over | 49.5 | Receiving Yards | -107 | Underdog |
* Note: More info on this below in the PrizePicks and Underdog section, but the odds for the pickem platforms are dependent on playing the appropriate lineup sizes that offer you those odds. If you play other lineup sizes, you’ll get worse odds.
NFL Week 2 Game-by-Game Picks
Lions at Bills
- D.J. Moore Over 34.5 Receiving Yards -119 (PrizePicks)
- Keon Coleman Over 1.5 Receptions 178 (Underdog)
- Sione Vaki Under 5.5 Rushing Yards -109 (Betr)
- Amon-Ra St. Brown Under 7.5 Receptions -107 (Underdog)
- Josh Allen Over 248.5 Passing Yards -107 (Underdog)
Worth noting, D.J. Moore’s line might look light to you. That’s because it’s a PrizePicks Taco Tuesday discount. The good news is that, as of this writing, it’s still live. So you can grab it ahead of kickoff for Thursday Night Football.
When it comes to Underdog, I tend to stick to the standard pricing so I can get -107 and build my +EV slips. But I couldn’t pass up Keon Coleman’s over 1.5 receptions at +178. I paired it with another plus money play (Carson Wentz over 1.5 Pass TDs) and two standard -107s (Aaron Rodgers over 206.5 Passing Yards and Justin Jefferson Over 73.5 Receiving Yards) for a bigger payout. I got hit with a little bit of a correlation tax for Wentz and Jefferson, but still worth it.
Keon Coleman over 1.5 Receptions.
+178 on Underdog
Might be able to get it for around +174 on Novig.
Do we dare? pic.twitter.com/8AWBB3Hxwm
— Mike Maher (@mikeMaher) September 16, 2026
Steelers at Patriots
- Aaron Rodgers Over 206.5 Passing Yards -107 (Underdog)
- Roman Wilson Over 17.5 Receiving Yards -107 (Underdog)
- Pat Freiermuth Over 25.5 Receiving Yards -107 (Underdog)
- Aaron Rodgers Over 13.05 FantasyPoints -107 (Underdog)
- Darnell Washington Over 13.5 Receiving Yards -107 (Underdog)
- Mack Hollins Over 35.5 Receiving Yards -107 (Underdog)
Panthers at Falcons
- Jalen Coker Under 4.5 Receptions -107 (Underdog)
- Panthers vs. Falcons Panthers ML Moneyline -120 (FanDuel)
- Bijan Robinson Under 18.5 Rush Attempts -107 (Underdog)
- Panthers vs. Falcons Over 43.5 Total Points -110 (theScore Bet)
- Cooper Rush Under 32.5 Longest Pass Comp. -107 (Underdog)
I have one multi-sport parlay on Underdog that just needs Jalen Coker to go under 4.5 receptions for a 6.2-unit win. It’s a flex play, so I’ll cash even it it loses. I essentially arbitraged by taking Coker’s over at plus money at Novig, too.
Just need that Jalen Coker under now ?'?
Sorry, @DBro_FFB 🥶 pic.twitter.com/oL3xs5ZsGf
— Mike Maher (@mikeMaher) September 17, 2026
Vikings at Bears
- Carson Wentz Over 1.5 Passing TDs 167 (Underdog)
- Justin Jefferson Over 73.5 Receiving Yards -107 (Underdog)
- Caleb Williams Over 226.5 Passing Yards -107 (Underdog)
- Aaron Jones Under 15.5 Rush Attempts -107 (Underdog)
- Kyle Monangai Under 10.5 Receiving Yards -107 (Underdog)
Bengals at Texans
- Bengals vs. Texans Under 23.5 1st Half Total -121 (Novig)
- Xavier Hutchinson Over 2.5 Receptions -128 (Onyx Odds)
- Bengals vs. Texans Texans ML Moneyline -138 (FanDuel)
- Ja’Marr Chase Over 6.5 Receptions -106 (Sleeper)
Browns at Buccaneers
- Buccaneers vs. Browns Buccaneers -7.5 Spread -115 (Novig)
- Bucky Irving Over 2.5 Receptions 120 (FanDuel)
Eagles at Titans
- Dontayvion Wicks Over 26.5 Receiving Yards -119 (PrizePicks)
- Dallas Goedert Over 3.5 Receptions -107 (Underdog)
Packers at Jets
- Marshawn Lloyd Under 14.5 Rush Attempts -109 (Betr)
- Geno Smith Under 30.5 Pass Attempts -109 (Betr)
- Jayden Reed Over 37.5 Receiving Yards -107 (Underdog)
- Adonai Mitchell Over 33.5 Receiving Yards -107 (Underdog)
- Jordan Love Over 1.5 Passing TDs -107 (Underdog)
- Mason Taylor Under 2.5 Receptions -107 (Underdog)
- Chris Brooks Under 6.5 Rush Attempts -107 (Underdog)
- Jonnu Smith Under 13.5 Receiving Yards -107 (Underdog)
- Jayden Reed Over 3.5 Receptions 115 (DraftKings)
- Geno Smith Under 20.5 Pass Completions -107 (Underdog)
- Matthew Golden Over 49.5 Receiving Yards -107 (Underdog)
Jaguars at Broncos
- Trevor Lawrence Over 0.5 Interceptions -109 (Betr)
- Trevor Lawrence Under 38.5 Longest Pass Comp. -107 (Underdog)
Raiders at Chargers
- Kirk Cousins Under 198.5 Passing Yards -107 (Underdog)
- Ashton Jeanty Under 17.5 Rush Attempts -119 (PrizePicks)
- Omarion Hampton Over 62.5 Rushing Yards -107 (Underdog)
- Mike Washington Under 5.5 Rush Attempts -107 (Underdog)
Saints at Ravens
- Derrick Henry Over 19.5 Rush Attempts -107 (Underdog)
- Tyler Loop Over 7.5 Kicking Points -119 (PrizePicks)
- Derrick Henry Under 1.5 Receptions -200 (BetMGM)
- LaJohntay Wester Over 1.5 Receptions 107 (Sleeper)
- Lamar Jackson Under 27.5 Pass Attempts -107 (Underdog)
Seahawks at Cardinals
- Marvin Harrison Over 2.5 Receptions -119 (PrizePicks)
- George Holani Under 32.5 Rushing Yards -107 (Underdog)
- Jacoby Brissett Under 34.5 Pass Attempts -107 (Underdog)
Dolphins at 49ers
- Malik Willis Under 184.5 Passing Yards -119 (PrizePicks)
- Mike Evans Over 48.5 Receiving Yards -107 (Underdog)
- Deebo Samuel Over 5.75 FantasyPoints -107 (Underdog)
- De’Von Achane Under 3.5 Receptions 122 (Kalshi)
Commanders at Cowboys
- Javonte Williams Under 17.5 Rush Attempts -107 (Underdog)
- Jayden Daniels Over 216.5 Passing Yards -113 (DraftKings)
- Jayden Daniels Over 29.5 Pass Attempts -107 (Underdog)
- Jayden Daniels Over 19.5 Passes Completed -107 (Underdog)
- Rachaad White Under 2.5 Receptions -160 (Hard Rock)
Great price on this bad boy on Fanatics.
Alec Pierce over 3.5 Receptions@BettingPros has the Fair Value at: +153
You can get it at +175 at Fanatics.
He's gone over 2 in a row, 3 of 4, 6 of 8, 7 of 10, 10 of 15.
+175 at Fanatics. Hammer time. pic.twitter.com/Xt5xJFImPh
— Mike Maher (@mikeMaher) September 20, 2026
Colts at Chiefs
- Jonathan Taylor Under 19.5 Rush Attempts -109 (Betr)
- Patrick Mahomes Under 20.5 Completions -107 (Underdog)
- Daniel Jones Under 31.5 Longest Pass Comp. -107 (Underdog)
- Tyquan Thornton Over 1.5 Receptions 164 (FanDuel)
- Patrick Mahomes Over 4.5 Rush Attempts 145 (Fanatics)
- Alec Pierce Over 3.5 Receptions 175 (Fanatics)
Giants at Rams
- Davante Adams Over 44.5 Receiving Yards -107 (Underdog)
- Jaxson Dart Under 20.5 Completions -107 (Underdog)
- Blake Corum Over 45.5 Rushing Yards -107 (Underdog)
- Ronnie Rivers Over 0.5 Touchdowns 4000 (Onyx Odds)
NFL Week 2 Parlays
With the caveat that many of my parlay slips are multi-sport and I really only focus on value (+EV picks = +EV parlays) and being careful about correlation penalties, here are some of NFL-only slips I have for Week 2:
Underdog 4-Pick Flex (-107 odds per leg)
- Javonte Williams Under 17.5 Rush Attempts -107 Underdog
- Davante Adams Over 44.5 Receiving Yards -107 Underdog
- Amon-Ra St. Brown Under 7.5 Receptions -107 Underdog
- Jayden Reed Over 37.5 Receiving Yards -107 Underdog
4-pick flex plays on Underdog are the best priced pickem parlays in the industry and probably some of the best priced parlays period. -107 is great to be able to get, especially when you can find where the market has a strong lean but Underdog is still straddling the middle. Our Smart Money, Market EV, and, obviously, Underdog Optimizer all help you find these value picks.
Underdog 4-Pick Flex (-107 odds per leg)
- Geno Smith Under 20.5 Pass Completions -107 Underdog
- Matthew Golden Over 49.5 Receiving Yards -107 Underdog
- Lamar Jackson Under 27.5 Pass Attempts -107 Underdog
- Mack Hollins Over 35.5 Receiving Yards -107 Underdog
Underdog 4-Pick Flex (-107 odds per leg)
- Joshua Palmer Under 11.5 Receiving Yards -107 Underdog
- Derrick Henry Over 19.5 Rush Attempts -107 Underdog
- Aaron Rodgers Over 13.05 FantasyPoints -107 Underdog
- Caleb Williams Over 226.5 Passing Yards -107 Underdog
Underdog 4-Pick Flex (-107 odds per leg)
- Patrick Mahomes Under 20.5 Completions -107 Underdog
- Jaxson Dart Under 20.5 Completions -107 Underdog
- Josh Allen Over 248.5 Passing Yards -107 Underdog (ugh)
- Pat Freiermuth Over 25.5 Receiving Yards -107 Underdog
Underdog 4-Pick Flex (-107 odds per leg)
- Keon Coleman Over 1.5 Receptions 178 Underdog
- Aaron Rodgers Over 206.5 Passing Yards -107 Underdog
- Carson Wentz Over 1.5 Passing TDs 167 Underdog
- Justin Jefferson Over 73.5 Receiving Yards -107 Underdog
How I Find My NFL Best Bets
I'm a positive expected value bettor, and I bet volume. I'm looking for prices that I believe give me an edge, then making enough of those bets for that edge to have a chance to play out over time. There will be losses. Sometimes several in a row. I'm comfortable with that as long as the process and the prices make sense.
Each week, I'll share my NFL best bets here and keep adding picks through Thursday Night Football, into the weekend, and sometimes right up to Sunday kickoff. Expect straight bets and player props, plus parlays, PrizePicks and Underdog entries, and sportsbook discounts or boosts I think are worth playing.
I'll use the BettingPros Market-Based EV tool, Smart Money tool, PrizePicks and Underdog optimizers, Prop Bet Cheat Sheet, Whale Tracker, odds pages, and likely some other BP tools along the way to help build the card. Each pick will include which tool helped me find it, so you can follow the process yourself.
The price matters. I can’t emphasize that enough. I’m betting the PRICE more than anything else. When you see a play from me and the current price is significantly worse, you should probably avoid it. In some cases, I’ll include how far I’m willing to go with a number. So, always check the current number before following a pick. A bet I liked on Monday might offer very different value by Sunday morning. I’ll list the line and the odds I played alongside each selection and keep adding to the card as I find more bets.
NFL PrizePicks, Underdog & DFS/Pickem Picks
When I build a PrizePicks or Underdog entry, I start with the individual picks and the price I'm effectively paying for each one. A big payout doesn't do much for me if I have to add a couple of bad picks to get there.
The slip format matters. With standard payouts, the best options on PrizePicks and Underdog are:
- Underdog: 4-pick Flex, which works out to approximately -107 per pick.
- PrizePicks: 5-pick Flex or 6-pick Flex, at approximately -119 and -118 per pick, respectively.
Those are effective odds calculated from the full payout structure, including partial payouts when some picks miss. They give me a baseline for comparing each selection with the sportsbook market. Underdog's standard 4-pick Flex offers the best price of those options, but I still need four picks worth playing.
Here’s a video Andrew Erickson recorded where he walks through the PrizePicks Optimizer and the strategy behind using it. The same applies for Underdog, just with different odds and slip sizes (see above). Watch the video here. And if you have any questions, shoot me a DM on Twitter/X (@mikeMaher).
I'll use the BettingPros PrizePicks and Underdog optimizers to find those edges and share my selections below. Focus on the individual lines when following along, and check your entry's payout before submitting. Discounts and adjusted multipliers can change the math. I'm happy to wait for another good pick instead of forcing one to fill a slip.
Again, we’re focusing on individual picks here. We want each individual pick to be a good one, so we’re less worried about every slip hitting and more focused on each individual pick providing value. Below, I’ll share each pick individually (I may have the same pick in multiple slips) and will share some of the completed slips I built throughout the week.
What is the Smart Money Tool?
Watch this walkthrough of the Smart Money board and how the tool works. If you'd rather watch than read, start with this Smart Money tutorial.
Smart Money is a new tool at BettingPros that focuses on sharp money on prediction markets called liquidity. While prediction markets are technically peer-to-peer, we know they’re filled with sharp bettors, whales, trading firms, market makers, and even other sportsbooks.
The liquidity is the primary signal here. That money (available liquidity) shows us what the sharps are trying to bet on prediction markets. Smart Money shows you where you can bet the same thing, at a better price, on a sportsbook.
Kalshi, Polymarket, Novig, and ProphetX are exchanges, so the money sitting on each side of a market is public.
The tool tracks liquidity across the major prediction markets in real time and lines those prices up against every sportsbook on the board. When a market is heavily backed on one side at a number the books haven’t matched, that gap is your edge. Smart Money flags the bet, finds the best available price across all major books and exchanges, and explains the edge in plain English. It’s line shopping with the sharpest money on the screen telling you which line to shop for.
