It has been a pretty good NFL season so far for underdogs. We saw four win outright in Week 1, five in Week 2 and seven last week for a 16-32 straight up (SU) record and a 25-23 against the spread (ATS) mark. Could we see more upsets in Week 4? That's a good question, and I'll touch on it in this week's best underdog NFL Week 4 picks.
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NFL Week 4 Picks & Predictions: Underdog Bets
(Odds courtesy of DraftKings Sportsbook)
Indianapolis Colts at Washington Commanders (London Game)
How on Earth are the Colts favored in this game? I get that the Commanders are stuck with Marcus Mariota. Yes, Mariota was not good against Dallas in Week 2, but he was fine against the NFL's best defense (Seattle) in Week 3. It's not like they'll need him to do much more than manage the game, given how bad the Colts’ defense is.
Jacory Croskey-Merritt is in store for a solid day against the lowest-rated run defense (40.7), according to Pro Football Focus (PFF). I'd expect a healthy dose of Jonathan Taylor, as well, against the Commanders’ 16th-ranked run defense (62.1).
Washington has the third-lowest-rated defense (50.7), but the Colts have the lowest-rated unit (43.7). This should be a great fantasy game for running backs. Taylor is obviously better, but Washington and Croskey-Merritt have the edge because Indianapolis can't stop the run.
Pick: Commanders Moneyline (+160)
Jacksonville Jaguars at Cincinnati Bengals
The Jaguars are getting completely disrespected with this line. Yes, the Bengals have more explosive potential on offense than any team in the NFL. They haven't been explosive. But they haven't been bad either. Jacksonville, on the other hand, has two blowout wins to its name (and a loss in a competitive contest versus Denver).
Their passing game has been low-key (195 yards per game), but they've been scoring points (27.3 per game, 10th-best in the league). Cincinnati's defense grades out at 52.0, according to PFF. Look for Trevor Lawrence to have a day while leading the Jaguars to a win over the Bengals.
Pick: Bengals Moneyline (+120)
Dallas Cowboys at Houston Texans
This is a tough one. I'd almost rather this game be a pick'em. Neither team can be trusted to play well. Houston can't move the ball on offense. But the Dallas defense has made every offense coordinator it faced look like a genius.
Dallas has been good on offense, but terrible in the red zone. But Houston's defense has looked like a shell of the dominant unit fans saw last season. However, even against a defense as lax as the Cowboys, there is no reason to believe Houston will move the ball.
Against the Texans’ defense we've seen this season, Dak Prescott should lead a handful of field-goal drives, at least. The one touchdown they score will secure a win.
Pick: Cowboys Moneyline (+136)
