Best Prop Bets Today: 5-Star Picks for Friday (10/2)

There's no such thing as a surefire bet that will win you $1 million. But with BettingPros' suite of tools, we can help put you in a better position to make informed betting decisions each day and over the long run.

Whether you're a first-timer or an experienced bettor, we can all use a little help. One way to find value is to use the BettingPros prop bet cheat sheets for your sport of choice and filter by star rating.

On a scale of one to five stars, BettingPros rates player props across multiple sports. The star rating is determined by our projections, expected value and advanced modeling.

From WNBA rebounds to NFL receptions, there is no shortage of props to bet on every single day. And if you're too busy to spend hours digging through the data, we've done the research for you.

Read on for our top five-star prop bet of the day.

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Best Prop Bets Today

On top of pinpointing our best prop bets today by star rating, we can take it a step further by identifying which five-star props also have a 100% hit rate over the player's last five games. You can also filter hit rates over the past 15 games, but let's not push our luck.

Cade Otton Over 29.5 Receiving Yards & Over 2.5 Receptions

Last Week: 0-1 | Season Record: 8-9

Best Odds: Receiving Yards (+117 at Polymarket)/Receptions (-150 at BetMGM)

One walk in six innings - that was all Robert Gasser gave up last week, en route to failing to cash our over ticket. That was the only walk the Brewers issued all game. Let’s see if we can get back in the win column.

With no MLB games today and only one WNBA contest scheduled, we’re going to shift gears and attack today’s 5-star bets by focusing on the NFL. Since this is only Week 4, we’ll have to rely a little on last season’s stats to reach our five-game threshold.

The NFL prop bet cheat sheet for Week 4 currently lists 18 player props with a 100% hit rate over the last five games - with just one 5-star bet.

That lone 5-star bet is for Tampa Bay Buccaneers tight end Cade Otton to go over 29.5 receiving yards. However, he’s gone over that mark just twice in three games this season, including two straight outings, and in four out of the last five games.

Technically, he has an 80% hit rate in his last five games at a line of 29.5 (more on that later). Now, he has hit the over 2.5 receptions in five straight games, dating back to last season, but that bet is only rated 4 stars.

We’ll have to cheat a little and take both bets this week. If you think about it, this is a 9-star prop bet of the week.

Let’s take a look at how Otton has performed with regard to these two specific prop bets in his last five games:

Game	Prop Line	Result	Over/Under	Prop Line	Result	Over/Under
Week 1	31.5 RecYds	26 Yards	Under	3.5 Recs	3 Recs	Under
Week 2	27.5 RecYds	38 Yards	Over	2.5 Recs	5 Recs	Over
Week 3	28.5 RecYds	56 Yards	Over	3.5 Recs	3 Recs	Under
Week 18	18.5 RecYds	94 Yards	Over	2.5 Recs	7 Recs	Over
Week 17	21.5 RecYds	33 Yards	Over	2.5 Recs	4 Recs	Over

As you can see, when it comes to this week’s lines (O/U 29.5 receiving yards, O/U 2.5 receptions), Otton only missed the mark on his yardage prop in Week 1 of this season, when he recorded 26 yards versus the Cincinnati Bengals. In hindsight, that result is sort of funny, as the Bengals are allowing the second-most receiving yards to tight ends this season (99.7 yards per game).

Of course, that number is buoyed by Dalton Schultz going ham against them in Week 2, catching 12 passes for 140 yards. Still, outside of Otton, the Bengals have allowed four tight ends to crest 29.5 receiving yards this season, including two in two separate games:

Week 2: Dalton Schultz: 140/Foster Moreau: 34
Week 3: Darnell Washington: 67/Pat Freiermuth: 30

While the prop bet cheat sheet lists Otton’s receiving yards prop at 29.5, many sportsbooks have it set at 25.5, and if we lower the threshold to that number, Otton has hit the over in five straight games. DraftKings Sportsbook provides the best value at -112 odds.

Otton’s opponent this week, the Green Bay Packers, have allowed 32 receiving yards and 4.3 receptions per game to tight ends. T.J. Hockenson (36 yards, 4 receptions) is the only tight end to clear Otton’s prop numbers, putting us a little on edge.

Not to mention that undrafted rookie free agent Jalon Daniels will be making his first career start in Week 4, in place of the injured Baker Mayfield. This game also has a low total under (between 38.5 and 39.0, depending on where you look), and the 0-3 Buccaneers only have an implied team total of 16.5/17.5.

There is very little room for error with either prop.