College Football Odds, Picks & Predictions: Week 5 (2026)

College football betting expert Scott Bogman will provide his top picks and predictions for every week of college football action. Let’s get ready for this weekend’s games with Bogman’s best college football bets for Week 4. Check out all of his top college football Week 5 picks and predictions below.

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College Football Week 5 Bets & Picks

(Odds and lines via BettingPros’ consensus betting information)

Let’s dive into our top college football picks and leans for Week 5.

Iowa vs. Ohio State

Ohio State is averaging 33 PPG against P4 opponents (@ Texas, vs. Illinois), while Iowa is averaging just 18 PPG in its two P4 games (vs. Iowa State, @ Michigan). The issue for the under in this game is that Ohio State has kept its foot on the gas in the fourth quarter, averaging 11.3 PPG in that period (tied for 16th) and 17.3 PPG in the second half (24th). The Buckeyes should also hold the ball for the majority of this game.

Iowa hasn't been lighting up the scoreboard, but it has been gaining yards, averaging 429 per game-well above its 328.8 average from the 2024 season and its highest mark since 2021. The issue for the Hawkeyes is that, while they have been passing better than usual, Ohio State currently ranks 17th in passing yards allowed per game. Iowa has also struggled to run against better competition.

Ohio State is averaging 5.25 red-zone trips per game and scoring touchdowns on 76.2% of those trips. The Buckeyes have also scored eight touchdowns outside the red zone, plus one defensive touchdown. Iowa has been stout defensively, but Iowa State and Michigan don't have offenses anywhere near the level of Ohio State's. The Buckeyes are also playing at a much faster pace under new offensive coordinator Arthur Smith, ranking 61st in 2026 after finishing 135th out of 136 teams under Brian Hartline in 2025.

Julian Sayin, Jeremiah Smith, Bo Jackson and company will account for most, if not all, of the points needed to reach this total. Anything Iowa adds should be icing on the cake.

Pick: Over 45.5

UMass vs. Eastern Michigan

The UMass offense was impressive in Week 1 against Rutgers, but the defense has been winning games for the Minutemen, albeit against a weak schedule outside of Rutgers. UMass has forced 11 turnovers, third in the nation, and its six interceptions rank fourth among all FBS teams. Eastern Michigan has limited its turnovers, but quarterback Noah Kim is tied with three others for the national lead in turnover-worthy plays, according to PFF.

EMU has played a tougher schedule. Lindenwood last week and Sacramento State in Week 0-which UMass also beat-weren't part of that tougher slate, but the Eagles faced San Jose State, Michigan State and Wisconsin in between, losing all three games. UMass might be a step down from those offenses, but it has found a nice rhythm, scoring at least 35 points in all four games. The Minutemen run the ball at one of the highest rates in the country (66.7%, seventh) and will face EMU's 79th-ranked run defense, which also ranks 97th in PFF's run-defense grades.

Extra possessions should help the UMass offense maintain its rhythm, while the Minutemen can grind down the clock as the second-slowest offense in the FBS. Expect UMass to take a lead and protect it with a clock-churning running game.

Pick: UMass -6.5

Tennessee vs. Auburn

Byrum Brown might only be good against Florida. After a good game against the Gators, he looked average again against Vanderbilt, completing 18 of 27 passes for 140 yards, one touchdown and one interception while adding 57 yards and a touchdown on 10 carries. Even if Brown has "the magic" in this one, the real mismatch is Auburn's offensive line against Tennessee's defensive line. Auburn has allowed 14 sacks (133rd), with patchy offensive line play compounded by Brown holding the ball longer than 92 of 97 qualified quarterbacks (3.22 seconds to throw).

Brown was actually better against Vanderbilt last week, but Auburn still managed only 21 points and 279 yards. The Tigers' defense was the problem against the Commodores, giving up 22 first downs, allowing Vanderbilt to hold possession for 37:32 and surrendering conversions on four of five fourth-down attempts. Tennessee had its own offensive line issues, with Colin Simmons accounting for five of Texas' 10 sacks. Auburn is tied for 24th with 11 sacks, four of which came last week.

The Vols might take a bit to warm up, but Brown's ability to stay upright against Tennessee's defensive line is questionable at best. Tennessee has 19 sacks, tying LSU for the most in the country. The Vols should have enough offense to complement their overwhelming defense and keep Auburn at arm's length throughout this game.

Auburn has played one neutral-site game and three home games, so this matchup at Neyland Stadium will be its first true road test. Tennessee should get the crowd involved early, thanks to the newly adopted happy hour, and harass Brown on its way to a big win.

Pick: Tennessee -7

Wake Forest vs. Stanford

Stanford moved to the ACC in 2024 and has averaged just 16.1 PPG when traveling to the East Coast since joining. The noon kickoff won't do the Stanford players' body clocks any favors; it will feel like 9 a.m. to them. Wake Forest has looked good on offense, ranking 67th in scoring at 31.5 PPG, but this is likely to be a look-ahead spot with a Tobacco Road trip to rival NC State coming up next week.

Stanford has really bottomed out when it isn't competitive. The Cardinal scored 37 and 34 points in wins against Hawaii and Georgia Tech but mustered only six and seven points in losses to Miami and Duke. Davis Warren had a big game last week against Georgia Tech, but Tech has looked worse and worse, and it had to travel all the way to the West Coast for that game.

The under is banking on Stanford being travel-weary and giving up as it has in its losses, along with Wake Forest slowing down in the second half with a much harder opponent coming up in Week 6. Gio Lopez, Carlos Hernandez and Ty Clark should provide a hot start for Wake and keep the defense fired up against a tired Stanford team. Wake might account for most of this total, but Stanford is likely to continue its low-scoring trend in losses. The public is all over this one, with the share of money wagered in the high 70% range.

Pick: Under 53.5

Boise State vs. Utah State

Boise State should roll in this game as a 20.5-point favorite. The Broncos have an impressive early-season résumé, ranking 31st in ESPN's Strength of Record. They hung tough with Oregon in Week 1, beat a strong Memphis team at home, defeated a ranked FCS squad in South Dakota and dominated a good MAC team in Western Michigan on the road last week.

Utah State has been better than projected on defense, but its offense still ranks 136th in scoring at 13.0 PPG. The Aggies lost to their ranked FCS opponent, Idaho State, despite holding it to 241 yards, as quarterbacks Hillstead and Brosterhous combined for four interceptions. Their next two losses were closer than expected: Washington beat them 16-14, while Utah won 33-0 but scored only seven points in the second half.

Utah State has faced some strong run defenses this season, and Boise State currently ranks 23rd in rushing play percentage (60.1%). We should still expect the Broncos to run effectively, but it might not be as easy as anticipated. Boise State ranks 134th in offensive pace, and all four Utah State games have gone under. The Aggies might be able to slow down the Broncos, but they won't stop them and will struggle to put points on the board themselves. The under looks like a strong play.

Pick: Under 51.5