Week 4 is here, and I'm looking at three huge longshots ahead of Sunday's slate. Below, I explain why Lamar Jackson and Darren Waller could be in for massive performances against two subpar defenses. Then, I highlight just how much of an advantage the Vikings have over the Dolphins. Here are the best longshot NFL Week 4 picks.
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NFL Week 4 Picks: Sleepers & Longshot Bets
(Odds Courtesy of DraftKings Sportsbook)
Lamar Jackson 4+ Passing Touchdowns (+1060)
Through three weeks, Lamar Jackson has just four passing touchdowns. Despite this slow start and the fact that the Titans are tied for the fewest passing touchdowns allowed this season, I love him in this matchup.
Jackson has thrown at least four touchdowns 13 times throughout his career. While there may be concern about Jackson letting up if the Ravens go up big as 11.5-point favorites, I don't think that will happen. After all, in his two four-touchdown performances last season, the Ravens won by at least 22 points each time.
Though the Titans' defense hasn't allowed many touchdown passes, two of their first three opponents rank in the bottom nine in passing offense this season. This is still a defense that allowed 30 touchdown passes last year.
Darren Waller 2+ Touchdowns (+1900)
The Lions have been abysmal against tight ends so far this season. They've allowed two touchdowns to the position in all three of their games so far.
While Juwan Johnson and Noah Fant split the touchdowns in Week 1, the two players combined for seven catches for 87 yards. In Week 2, Dalton Kincaid caught seven passes for 95 yards and a touchdown. Last week, Kenyon Sadiq caught seven passes for 105 yards and a touchdown.
While no single tight end has caught two touchdowns against the Lions this season, it's hard not to love Darren Waller’s potential here. He already has a two-touchdown game, and last season, he posted a couple of two-touchdown performances in just nine games.
With the Panthers' secondary banged up, the already dominant Lions offense should have no trouble putting points on the board. That means more passing from the Panthers' offense against what is currently the league's 32nd-ranked pass defense. At this price, there's not much to dislike about this prop.
Vikings to Shutout the Commanders (+1200)
I don't understand how the Dolphins are going to move the ball against the Vikings. They have scored 13 or fewer points in all three of their games, and now they'll take the field without star running back De'Von Achane
The Vikings have the second-best scoring defense in the league, allowing just 13.7 points per game. While they were aided by the weather, this defense went to Chicago and held the Bears to just three points.
The Vikings also lead the NFL with 14 sacks. Malik Willis has been sacked nine times, which is tied for the fourth-most in the league.
Phil Wood is a featured writer at BettingPros. For more from Phil, check out his archive and follow him @Phil_Wood_Jr.