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NFL Week 4 Same Game Parlay Odds, Picks & Predictions (2023)

Author image by Sam Smith | Sep 30, 2023
Author image by Sam Smith | Sep 30, 2023
Christian McCaffrey

Through three weeks, the NFL season has already delivered plenty of surprises and exciting games. This week should be no different, especially if you're hitting your Same Game Parlay bets. Below is one SGP I'll be playing for each game on the main Sunday slate.

Week 4 Best NFL Same Game Parlays

Odds courtesy of FanDuel Sportsbook

Miami Dolphins at Buffalo Bills

After Miami's massive 70-point game against the Broncos last week, they're a trendy choice to pull a road upset this week in Buffalo. I expect this to be a great game, but I think the Bills will come out on top. Buffalo has gotten things figured out after their Week 1 loss to the Jets, as they've outscored their last two opponents by a combined score of 75-13. The Bills will be the Dolphins' toughest test of the season, and Miami's first two wins were by just one possession.

Stefon Diggs has been on fire to start the season, with 25 catches on 32 targets through three games. Diggs has gone over 7 catches in every game this year, and even though he's drawing a tough matchup in Xavien Howard he should continue to get plenty of targets in a close game. On the Dolphins' side, Tua Tagovailoa has been on fire to start the year. Tua has\ 1,024 yards through three games, so 250 yards should be an attainable target in a game where he should be throwing early and often.

Parlay Odds: +320

Pittsburgh Steelers at Houston Texans

I was doubting Houston's chances coming into this season, but so far they've looked significantly better than I'd thought. They're just 1-2, but rookie QB C.J. Stroud has been exceptional. He hasn't looked overwhelmed at any point and has consistently delivered the ball to his WRs. The Steelers have allowed the fifth-most receiving yards per game to opposing WRs, and throws to WRs are where Stroud has feasted this year. I see this being a big game for the Texans’ offense and a win for Houston. I'll take the +3 to give a little breathing room.

The Steelers have struggled against opposing WRs which is why I'm also loving Stroud Over 1.5 Pass TDs and Tank Dell 50+ Rec Yards. Dell has 12 catches for 217 yards over his last two games and is catching his stride as a legit NFL WR. This is a nice matchup for him to post a good line.

Parlay Odds: +480

Los Angeles Rams at Indianapolis Colts

This should be a close game, but I expect the Rams to come out of Indianapolis with a win. Los Angeles has looked better than most expected this year. They pulled off a big win in Seattle back in Week 1 and nearly won in Cincinnati last week. They have a prime opportunity to continue playing well on the road against a Colts team that is just getting rookie QB Anthony Richardson back from concussion protocol. I expect the Rams' passing game to deliver a victory against an overmatched Colts team.

Speaking of the Rams' passing game, rookie WR Puka Nacua has been a breakout star so far this year. Nacua has 30 catches for 338 yards through three games and has recorded at least 72 yards in each game. Against the Colts' man defense, Nacua should feast on Sunday. The Colts have a star young WR of their own in Michael Pittman Jr., who has recorded at least eight catches in every game this season. LA struggled to contain Ja'Marr Chase last week, and I expect the same to happen this week with Pittman.

Parlay Odds: +550

Minnesota Vikings at Carolina Panthers

The Vikings' good luck from last season has run out. After going 11-0 in one-score games last year, Minnesota has started 0-3 this year, losing each game by one score. I expect their luck to turn this week against the Panthers, however. Carolina is also 0-3, and their offense has struggled with both Bryce Young and Andy Dalton at the helm. Minnesota is better than their 0-3 record and will get in the win column this week.

Justin Jefferson has, as expected, been ridiculous this season. He's posted at least seven catches and at least 149 receiving yards in every game this year. With CB Jaycee Horn hurt for Carolina, there's no reason why Jefferson will slow down this week. I also expect a nice game from Adam Thielen, in a revenge game against his old team. Thielen posted 11 catches for 145 yards last week with Andy Dalton at QB and should have another good game this week as I expect the Panthers to trail.

Parlay Odds: +350

Tampa Bay Buccaneers at New Orleans Saints

New Orleans has been solid this season. They sit at 2-1, with their only loss being a blown lead on the road in Green Bay last week. Derek Carr is questionable coming into the game, but New Orleans is lucky to have a solid backup in Jameis Winston. Whether Carr or Winston starts on Sunday, the Saints should be able to beat Tampa Bay. The Bucs' two wins have come against winless teams, and they were dominated last week at home by the Eagles.

Chris Olave is in a prime spot to have a big game on Sunday. Olave has 22 catches on 32 targets this year and averages 13.7 yards per catch. The Bucs allow the fourth most yards per reception to opposing WRs, and Olave should be able to take advantage of their weak secondary. On Tampa's side, RB Rachaad White could be in for a tough day. He's averaged just 3.1 yards per carry this year and hasn't topped 17 carries in a game yet this season. The Saints allow just 3.9 yards per carry to opposing RBs. If the Saints grab a lead in this game, White likely won't get enough opportunities to break his yardage total given his poor efficiency.

Parlay Odds: +420

Washington Commanders at Philadelphia Eagles

Philadelphia has started 3-0 and has only looked better as the season has gone on. They're coming off a dominating win on Monday Night in Tampa last week, and despite the short week, they should be able to take care of business against Washington. After showing promising signs early in the year, Washington took a big step backward last week with a 34-point loss to the Bills. Washington also looked overmatched against Denver the prior week, before figuring out the Broncos’ weak defense and making a big comeback. The same Denver defense that gave up 70 points the next week.

D'Andre Swift has posted 44 rush attempts for an absurd 305 rush yards over the past two weeks, and the Commanders allow 4.1 yards per carry against opposing RBs. Swift should see steady volume again this week, and behind the Eagles' O-Line 80+ yards is an attainable mark. When the Eagles get near the goal line, their signature QB sneak play makes it a sure bet that Jalen Hurts will get high-value rush attempts. I love his odds to find the end zone on Sunday.

Parlay Odds: +470

Denver Broncos at Chicago Bears

In a game between two of the most disappointing teams in the NFL this season, I expect the Broncos to come out on top. Denver has been bad, but they've shown signs of being a solid team. Chicago, on the other hand, has looked pretty inept at all times this year. I expect the Broncos' defense to have an easier time with the Bears' offense than they did with Miami last week, and pick up their first win of the season.

Javonte Williams has gotten four red zone carries this year, but has failed to convert for one for a touchdown. Chicago has allowed a TD on 75% of their opponents’ red zone drives, the third-highest mark in the NFL. I think Williams continues to get solid volume and punches one in this week. I also expect Justin Fields to have his first solid game of the season against the Broncos' terrible defense and, if he's forced to throw often, 200 passing yards is an attainable mark.

Parlay Odds: +400

Baltimore Ravens at Cleveland Browns

Given the struggles the Browns have had on offense this year and Baltimore's mostly solid play, I'll happily take the Ravens on the road and take points. Browns QB Deshaun Watson is questionable, and even if he plays his game has been up and down this year. Baltimore is coming off a tough loss to Indianapolis last week, but they've looked good overall this season and should be the better team on Sunday. I'll take an alternate spread of +3.5, in order to win if the game comes down to a field goal.

Speaking of field goals, Justin Tucker to kick at least two FGs is one of my favorite props of the week. Not only is Tucker one of the greatest kickers in NFL history, but the Browns' red zone defense has been amazing this year – they haven't allowed a red zone TD all season. I expect the Ravens to settle for FGs at least twice this game, and Tucker should convert. I also like Zay Flowers to go over 4.5 Receptions. The Browns have been one of the best teams in the NFL against opposing WRs this year, but Flowers thrives on short targets. He has converted a ridiculous 84% of his targets into catches this season. Five catches is very doable for the star rookie.

Parlay Odds: +320

Cincinnati Bengals at Tennessee Titans

The Bengals got a big win last week, avoiding an 0-3 start behind Joe Burrow's nice game. Burrow was playing hurt, but his calf should only get better, and he appears to be returning to form. The Titans, on the other hand, struggled last week, losing 27-3 to the Browns. I think the Titans are a much worse team than the Bengals, and Cincinnati’s exceptional passing game should tear up a Titans' passing defense that has allowed the third-most passing yards to opposing QBs in the NFL this year.

The Titans' pass defense is especially poor against opposing WRs, as they have allowed 230 receiving yards to opposing WRs this season. Ja'Marr Chase got back on track last week with 12 catches for 141 yards, and I think he'll go back over 100 yards again this week. Joe Mixon, on the other hand, could be in for a tough day. The Titans allow 2.7 yards per carry to opposing RBs – the fewest in the NFL. Joe Mixon only gets about 15 carries per game, and it'll be a tall task for him to go over his total of 56.5 rushing yards on that kind of volume against such a great rush defense.

Parlay Odds: +780

Los Angeles Chargers at Las Vegas Raiders

I believe the Chargers are better than their 1-2 record. Their two losses were by three points each, in Tennessee and at home against the Dolphins. Their defense has been their weakness this year, but with Raiders QB Jimmy Garoppolo questionable with a concussion, and the Raiders' offense largely ineffective this season, I expect the Chargers' defense to hold it together enough for the offense to carry them to a win.

It's always tricky betting on two WRs from one team in a parlay, but with Mike Williams out for the season, it remains to be seen how Josh Palmer and Quentin Johnston will be utilized going forward. I expect both to see an uptick in usage, and Justin Herbert is great at spreading the ball around to his receivers. I expect both to post solid games, and the negative correlation between the two gives us some great odds here.

Parlay Odds: +600

New England Patriots at Dallas Cowboys

After an embarrassing loss to Arizona last week, the Cowboys may have been exposed as being less dominant than most thought. Dallas rolled through their first two games, but they came against clearly inferior competition. All in all, 2-1 is worse than most expected from the Cowboys through three easy games. The Patriots will be their toughest matchup so far this year. New England is 1-2, but their two losses were one-possession games against the Eagles and the Dolphins. The Patriots may not win on Sunday, but I expect them to hang tough enough to cover.

I think the Patriots will try to slow the game down, as they have in every game this year. Under 43.5 total points with two great defenses on the field, is a good bet to make. I also expect a quiet day from Mac Jones. While the Cowboys haven't played any great QBs this year, they have held opposing QBs to just 156.3 passing yards per game – second-fewest in the NFL.

Parlay Odds: +410

Arizona Cardinals at San Francisco 49ers

The 49ers are clearly the better team here, but it feels like a 14-point spread isn't giving enough credit to the Cardinals. Arizona has been competitive in each of their games this season, losing two one-possession games and beating Dallas last week in one of the most shocking games of the year. They have a very solid defense, and QB Josh Dobbs has been good enough to not sink their chances of winning. I'll take the Cardinals to hang tough with such a massive spread.

Christian McCaffery Anytime TD is one of the safest bets in sports recently. He's scored in 12 straight games, and the Cardinals have allowed a rushing TD in every game this year. I expect him to run his scoring streak to 13 games. I also expect a nice game out of Marquise Brown – he's been very solid over the last two weeks, posting at least five catches in each of the Cardinals' last two games. The 49ers have allowed the fourth-most receptions to opposing WRs in the NFL this season, and Brown should get plenty of looks if the Cardinals trail.

Parlay Odds: +440

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