The Lions versus Cardinals game has the highest projected total of the week. Below, I explain why I expect the Lions to fully capitalize on the Cardinals' struggling defense after a disappointing Week 4 result. Then I highlight why it’s worth taking a shot on Omarion Hampton and Cam Ward in favorable matchups. Here are the best longshot NFL Week 5 picks.
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NFL Week 5 Picks: Sleepers & Longshot Bets
(Odds Courtesy of DraftKings Sportsbook)
Lions Over 40.5 Points (+500)
There has been such an emphasis on how bad the Lions' defense has been that the offense's excellent play is being overlooked. The Lions have scored at least 26 points in all four games, giving them the fifth-highest-scoring offense in the league thus far. Jared Goff is off to an insane start with 1,214 yards, 9 touchdowns and 0 interceptions, and Jahmyr Gibbs and Amon-Ra St. Brown have combined for nine touchdowns.
This week, the Lions face a defense that is almost as bad as their own. The Cardinals are allowing 29.3 points per game, the fourth-most in the NFL. The defense ranks in the bottom 10 in total yards allowed and 30th in yards per play allowed (6.1).
I fully expect the Lions to score at will in this game, and I don't expect them to stop at any point, because their defense is so untrustworthy. After all, the Lions blew a 21-point lead in Week 1 and a 14-point lead in Week 3. The Cardinals will score plenty in this game, but I wouldn't be surprised if the Lions score a touchdown on nearly every drive.
Omarion Hampton 70+ Rushing Yards (+479)
The Chargers' offense has been abysmal this season. They're averaging just 16.8 points and 306.8 total yards per game. However, the rushing attack actually ranks ninth-best in the league.
Omarion Hampton has rushed for at least 43 yards in all four games, despite the Chargers losing every game by at least seven points. He's averaging 4.0 yards per carry, and he managed 94 yards against the Raiders.
The Broncos are allowing 142.8 rushing yards per game, which is the fourth-most in the NFL. They're also giving up 4.8 yards per carry, which is tied for the fifth-worst mark in the league. Hampton has received more than 12 carries just twice this season, but with the Broncos barely favored in a low-scoring game, I expect him to get enough touches to properly exploit this weak run defense.
Cam Ward 260+ Passing Yards (+505)
In two games against the Texans last season, Cam Ward never threw for more than 194 yards. In his first game against the team, he completed just 10 of his 26 passes for 108 yards. However, that pass defense finished as the league's sixth-best last season. This year's pass defense currently ranks fifth-worst.
The Texans are allowing an average of 260 passing yards per game. While Ward is yet to top 222 yards in a game this season, he is completing 63% of his passes. That's up from 59.8% last season.
The Texans are favored by 7.5 points, so I expect Ward to be throwing for the majority of this game. And while his career-high is just 265 yards, Ward threw for at least 150 yards in five games last season. And he started to play significantly better in Week 5.
Phil Wood is a featured writer at BettingPros. For more from Phil, check out his archive and follow him @Phil_Wood_Jr.