We’re heading into Week 8 of the 2025 National Football League (NFL) regular season. Can you believe it? It seems like we just got started, yet, here we are, nearly halfway through the season! Well, if you’re an oldhead like me, eight games was the halfway point, but now we go to Week 18, so I guess the true halfway point now is after next week. Anyway!
We’re also back to our traditional 1 p.m. ET start time on Sunday, with no Europe game this week. However, we’re not done with the early-riser game, as the NFL returns to Berlin, Germany in Week 10. Let’s build our bankroll with our best NFL Week 8 totals picks.
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Best NFL Week 8 Totals Picks
Odds courtesy of FanDuel Sportsbook | All bets are for 1 unit
Line Movements & Public Leans
Listed are some of the largest line movements for Week 8 from opening to time of publishing:
- 49ers at Texans: 45.5 to 41.5
- Dolphins at Falcons: 46.5 to 44.5
- Bills at Panthers: 47.5 to 45.5
- Browns at Patriots: 42.5 to 40.5
- Titans at Colts: 44.5 to 47.5
- Cowboys at Broncos: 45.5 to 50.5
This week, there isn’t as much movement on the totals, and we have six teams on a bye, too. Just for your information, I only try and include the games with the largest line movement, generally two points or more from open.
Stats & More
You know when you have an Over bet, and you’re doing the math in your head? Let’s say you have Over 48, and it’s just 13-6 at halftime. You’re saying to yourself, “OK, if it just gets to 20-13 at the end of the third quarter, I’ll be OK. We’ll be good.” You try to make yourself feel better, even though you’re behind the sticks. It happens.
Let’s take a look at the teams who will save you in the end. The Green Bay Packers lead the NFL in fourth-quarter scoring, posting 11.3 points per game (PPG) in the final 15 minutes. The Denver Broncos and Detroit Lions are tied with 10.1 PPG in fourth-quarter scoring. Denver is a bit misleading, however. It has 77 fourth-quarter points this season, but 33 of those points came in Week 7 against the New York Giants! It had just three points in Week 6 in London against Jets in the fourth, and it was averaging 7.3 PPG, which was middle of the pack, prior to last Sunday’s outburst.
On the other side of the coin, the Philadelphia Eagles have averaged just 3.7 PPG in the fourth quarter, which is dead-last in the NFL. The Atlanta Falcons are just ahead of the Eagles with 3.8 PPG, followed by the Arizona Cardinals and Las Vegas Raiders (4.1 PPG), Cleveland Browns, LA Chargers and New Orleans Saints (4.3 PPG), and Tennessee Titans (4.7 PPG).
In Miami, they play a song over the loud speaker, “Miami has the Dolphins…the Greatest Football Team. We take the ball from goal to goal, like no one’s ever seen. We’re in the air, we’re on the ground, we’re always in control. And when you say Miami, you’re talking Super Bowl. ‘Cause we’re the…Miami Dolphins, Miami Dolphins, Miami Dolphins Number One.”
Well, NONE of those things are true. Many more teams take the ball down the field better than they do. They’re rarely in control. And Super Bowl? C’mon, bro. BUT…the Dolphins (1-6) are Number One…in hitting Overs. Through seven games, Miami has cashed the Over six times, the highest conversion rate of any team in the NFL. That will be put to the test in Atlanta this weekend, however.
Atlanta (3-3) has cashed low in five of six games, thanks in large part to its offense. It certainly has little to do with RB Bijan Robinson, as he might be the most electric thing going in the NFL right now. In fact, let’s touch on the Falcons offense first, as the numbers are silly, and worth rehashing. Atlanta gobbles up 364.7 total yards, ranking seventh in the NFL. They’re a solid 10th in passing yards per game (228.0), and fourth in the league in rushing yards per game (136.3). However, they are scoring just 18.3 PPG, which is 28th. Make it make sense!
The Falcons are actually ninth in third-down conversion percentage (42.31%), too, and up to 45.71% in the past three games. Ahh, but when you look at NFL Team Red Zone Scoring Percentage (TD Only), the Falcons are 29th at just 44.44%. If QB Michael Penix Jr. and the offense start being more efficient inside the opponents’ 20, watch out.
Atlanta has a championship-caliber defense, ranking No. 2 with just 265.2 total yards per game allowed. It is No. 1 against the pass with just 141.2 yards per game allowed. The Falcons do allow 124.0 yards per game on the ground, which ranks 20th, and they lost LB Divine Deablo to what could be a multi-game injury last week in San Francisco. That could put a bigger dent in those numbers, especially with Dolphins RB De’Von Achane coming to town.
On the flip side, the Dolphins are dead-last in the NFL against the run, allowing 159.3 yards per game. Robinson is going to eat early and often, as will Tyler Allgeier. The total is super low. Get on it soon before it rises. However, I’d take it all the way up to 47.5.
Pick: Over 44.5 Points (-114)
The Buccaneers (5-2) and Saints (1-6) renew acquaintances in the NFC South Division at Caesars Superdome at 4:05 p.m. ET on Sunday.
Tampa Bay is dealing with some major issues on offense, in terms of injuries. RB Bucky Irving (foot, shoulder) has missed the past two games. WR Mike Evans (collarbone) was banged up, he returned last Sunday, but then he proceeded to break his clavicle, and he is out until at least late December, if not for the whole season. WR Chris Godwin (fibula) has already been ruled out by head coach Todd Bowles, as has Irving. Rookie WR Emeka Egbuka (hamstring) has been fighting through an injury, but he appears in line to play. TE Cade Otton was a huge security blanket for QB Baker Mayfield last week in Detroit, and WR Tez Johnson stepped up and announced his arrival to the world. Google his TD last week, and turn the audio up (NSFW, by the way!)
The cupboard isn’t necessarily bare for the Bucs, but it needs to certainly be restocked. That might not happen until after the bye next week. The Bucs run game hasn’t been great, and it struggles even more with no Irving. Defensively, Tampa is so-so, allowing 328.0 yards per game, and it has allowed plenty of passing yards (229.0) to rank 21st. It is 11th in rushing defense, yielding just 99.0 yards per game.
The Saints have issues of their own for injuries. RB Kendre Miller tore his ACL last week, so it’s RB Alvin Kamara…then a bunch of other guys. There is some smoke around free-agent RB Jamaal Williams, who knows the system after spending the past two seasons in the Big Easy. But, they were unimpressive seasons, with 470 rushing yards and two touchdowns after 27 games, averaging 3.1 yards per carry.
Anyway, the Saints could opt to pass the ball more, but that isn’t a great idea against the strength of the Bucs' D. Running is the better bet for success, and the Bucs could run more with the bevy of injuries at wideout, as they just look to get to the bye in Week 9 without any additional injuries at the position. Running keeps the clock moving, and it is what Under bettors love the most.
Pick: Under 46.5 Points (-112)
The Titans (1-6) and the Colts (6-1) meet at Lucas Oil Stadium in another divisional game. We have a total of three divisional matchups in Week 8, and the Under has cashed in 17-of-30 divisional games to date, which is 56.7% conversion rate. Both of these teams have cashed the Over at a 4-3 clip so far.
This is a rematch of a Week 3 matchup in Indianapolis, when the Colts won 41-20 in Nashville with a total of 42.5. The Colts nearly took care of the number on their own. While Indianapolis had the benefit of a pick-six by DB Kenny Moore II, it still did plenty of scoring on offense, too. RB Jonathan Taylor has been going bonkers lately, and he recorded the touchdown hat trick last weekend against the Los Angeles Chargers. It was his third three-TD game of the season, with the first coming against the Titans. In games which Taylor scores multiple touchdowns, the Colts are averaging 39.7 PPG.
In the most recent meeting in Indianapolis last season on Dec. 22, 2024, the Colts outlasted the Titans 38-30 with a total of 43.5. The Over is 3-2 in the past five meetings at Lucas Oil Field. In the past four meetings with the Titans, the Colts are averaging 32.5 PPG, while allowing 23.8 PPG.
Tennessee has cashed the Over at a 4-2 clip in the past six games, and it has allowed at least 20 points in all seven games to date. It’s the offense which is a concern, ranking last in the NFL with 235.6 total yards and 13.7 PPG. It is 31st in passing yards (159.9) and rushing yards (75.7) per game.
While Taylor and the offense should roll up big numbers, the Titans will continue to struggle offensively.
Pick: Under 46.5 Points (-102)
Week 7 Teaser (8 Points +100)
- Dolphins at Falcons: Over 36.5 Points
- Buccaneers at Saints: Under 54.5 Points
- Titans at Colts: Under 54.5 Points
All right, it was another successful three-team teaser in Week 7. We didn’t need the extra points in the Raiders-Chiefs (Under 53.5) or Falcons-49ers (54.5) games, as each of those games had 31 and 30 points, respectively. We had Under 49.5 in the Patriots-Titans game, and betting that straight was a loss on the Under, as the Patriots won 31-13 with a closing line of 41. That’s why I enjoy a good teaser!
For Week 8, I plan to play the Dolphins-Falcons game quite aggressively, and I like the Buccaneers-Saints and Titans-Colts games OK, but teasing it is more pleasing. Again, as my good friend, Chris David, would say back in the day at VegasInsider.com, Press, Pass or Fade, but in the end - Good Luck.
