NFL Week 9 Picks: Sleepers & Longshot Bets (2024)

Bo Nix threw for a career-high 284 yards last week against the Carolina Panthers. Can he top that number this week against the worst pass defense in football? Will the Los Angeles Chargers shut down the Cleveland Browns? If they do, will their offense find a way to score points? Something they've struggled to do this season. Can Alvin Kamara break the century mark with the New Orleans Saints finally expected to win another game?

Here are the best longshot bets for Week 9 of the NFL season.

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Best NFL Week 9 Longshot Bets

(Odds via DraftKings Sportsbook)

Bo Nix 275+ Passing Yards (+500)

Last week, Bo Nix set a career-high with 284 passing yards. It was the first time in his career he's thrown for at least 250 yards. Granted, the performance came against the Panthers, one of the worst teams in football, however, Nix may have an even better matchup this week.

The Baltimore Ravens are allowing a league-worst 291.4 passing yards per game. Over their last three contests, they're allowing an average of 310 yards. The Ravens are favored by more than a touchdown in Sunday's game, which means we should expect the Broncos' offense to become one-dimensional, as Nix throws for the majority of the game. For this price, there is no reason not to take Nix to go over this number on Sunday.

Los Angeles Chargers at Cleveland Browns: Lowest Scoring Game on Sunday (+800)

Thanks to the New England Patriots and Tennessee Titans, every other game that is expected to be low-scoring is getting great odds as the lowest-scoring game of Sunday. DraftKings Sportsbook currently has the Patriots and Titans set at +300 to be the lowest-scoring game on Sunday. With them favored by so much, the Chargers and Browns are sitting at a very nice +800.

Last week, the Browns scored more than 20 points for the first time this season. However, they're not going to have the same success this weekend. They have to battle the league's top-scoring defense, as the Chargers are allowing just 13 points per game. No team has scored more than 20 points against the Chargers this season. With their offense averaging just 18.9 points per game, it's unlikely they score much, even against a defense allowing 23.3 points per game.

Alvin Kamara 110+ Rushing Yards (+500)

Alvin Kamara hasn't rushed for more than 100 yards since Week 2 against the Dallas Cowboys. He hasn't rushed for more than 80 yards since Week 3, as the Saints' losing streak has prevented him from getting a lot of touches. However, this week, Derek Carr is likely back under center, which is great news for Kamara.

In his first meeting with the Panthers, Kamara rushed for 83 yards on 15 carries. That was a game the Saints won by 37 points, so Kamara was a non-factor late in the contest. This season, the Panthers are allowing a league-worst 154.6 rushing yards per game. Only two other teams are allowing more than 150 yards: Indianapolis and Dallas.

Kamara takes advantage of good matchups, such as his one versus the Cowboys. In a game the Saints should be leading, look for Kamara to set a new season-high in rushing.

Make sure to check out our other best bets for Friday:

Phil Wood is a featured writer at BettingPros. For more from Phil, check out his archive and follow him @Phil_Wood_Jr.