Today’s five-game NHL slate isn’t too shabby for a Friday night, with all games rather evenly matched. The biggest favorite on the board Friday is the Colorado Avalanche at just -170. I’d say each of these games is worthy of betting consideration.
Here’s a breakdown of each contest, as well as my recommended plays.
Friday’s NHL Best Bets
(Odds courtesy of FanDuel Sportsbook)
Pittsburgh Penguins (-130) at Columbus Blue Jackets (+108) | O/U 6.5 (-124/+102)
This is the game I have the most uncertainty about on Friday’s slate. Both the Blue Jackets and Penguins are expected to see some positive regression based on their advanced metrics. Both Columbus and Pittsburgh have expected goals for percentages (XGF%) above 50% at 5-on-5 play on the season, yet their actual results have them both under 50%.
Ultimately, this game just has a bit too much variance for me, especially in net where we’ll see Tristan Jarry make his fourth start of the season against Elvis Merzlikins, who ranks 60th in goals saved above expected (GSAE) among NHL goaltenders.
Columbus is in better actual and analytical form, which has me leaning toward the Blue Jackets. But after Columbus let me down their last time out against Seattle (they gave up five unanswered goals after taking a 2-0 first-period lead), I’m content to sit this one out.
Pick: Pass, but lean Columbus Moneyline (+108)
Washington Capitals (+140) at Colorado Avalanche (-170) | O/U 6.5 (-120/+102)
This line speaks volumes to me. If you were to ask the average NHL fan who has looked better to start the year, I’d imagine most of them would say Washington, and rightfully so. The Caps have been one of the league’s more pleasant surprises to start the year, while Colorado has been a bit of a mess, especially between the pipes.
The Avalanche have been able to steady the ship recently, winning their last three games against Carolina, Nashville and Los Angeles. But the analytics still suggest Washington is the team in better form as of late. In a game potentially featuring two backup goaltenders, I prefer to sit this one out.
Pick: Pass
Vegas Golden Knights (-126) at Utah Hockey Club (+105) | O/U 6.5 (+104/-125)
Finally, a game where I’ve already gotten some money down. You may look at Las Vegas’ 10-4-2 record and be surprised that the Golden Knights are only short road favorites against a middling Utah team. However, a look under the hood suggests these teams are more evenly matched than the standings would suggest.
Over their last 10 games, Utah has posted a 5-0n-5 XGF% of 52.34%. Vegas sits at just 48.14%. Utah has also graded better in terms of owning possession and scoring chance generation and prevention.
While Vegas is giving up more scoring chances and high-danger scoring chances than they’ve generated, the Golden Knights have done an exceptional job at burying their opportunities. The Knights have posted a shooting percentage above 10% at 5-on-5 over their last 10 contests, a percentage that ranks them ninth in the league but could be due to regress. Utah’s shooting percentage has been closer to the league average at just under 9%.
Utah also should have an advantage between the pipes. Karel Vejmelka is the projected starter on Friday night. H e ranks fourth leaguewide in goals saved above expected. Meanwhile, there’s some uncertainty in net for Vegas. Starter Adin Hill has started the last five games for Vegas, with backup Ilya Samsonov tending to an injury that has him day-to-day. However, the Knights Friday morning sent third goalie Akira Schmid back to the AHL, suggesting Samsonov could return Friday night.
Either way, I like the goaltending advantage for Utah assuming Vejmelka does make the start.
Finally, it’s worth mentioning that these two teams played two weeks ago in Vegas. The Golden Knights won the game 4-3 in overtime, but the analytics graded the game fairly evenly at 5-on-5 play. In that game, Utah goalie Connor Ingram let up four goals and was unspectacular in the defeat. With Vejmelka in net, expect Utah to exact some revenge.
Pick: Utah Moneyline (+105)
Nashville Predators (-128) at Calgary Flames (+106) | O/U 6.5 (+110/-134)
Sometimes a team just feels overdue, and that’s how I feel about Nashville. The Predators are coming off consecutive 3-2 losses in overtime, and now enter as short favorites against a Calgary team that started the season 5-0-1 but has gone 3-6-2 since.
There’s no doubt Nashville has the advantage in terms of talent on paper. But the Predators have failed to put things together despite their star-studded additions during the offseason. Those struggles to mesh are exploited against teams like Colorado and Edmonton, who boast as much if not more talent than the Predators. But I like Nashville’s chances more against a less imposing Flames squad that was projected to be among one of the league’s bottom feeders.
The analytics also back my notion that Nashville feels due for better results. The Predators have been outscored 11-22 at 5-on-5 over their last 10 games. But the metrics suggest Nashville should’ve scored seven more goals during that span. And while Nashville has struggled to reduce opposing scoring chances, Calgary hasn’t been much better in that department, suggesting this could be an up-and-down affair.
Nashville’s biggest problem this season has been converting. The Predators rank dead-last in the league at 5-on-5 shooting with a paltry percentage of 5.15%. The Predators have too much firepower for that percentage to remain that low for long.
Lastly, I expect we’ll get Juuse Saros in net for the Predators after Scott Wedgewood started Thursday night’s loss to Edmonton. Opposing him will be Dustin Wolf, who has been one of Calgary’s best players to start the year, ranking 20th in goals saved above expected. However, after a bumpy start, Saros has found his form and now ranks 13th in goals saved above expected.
Even on the second leg of a back-to-back, I like Nashville in this spot.
Pick: Nashville Moneyline (-128)
Detroit Red Wings (-146) at Anaheim Ducks (+122) | O/U 6.5 (-110/-110)
Is there a better way to cap a Friday night than to root for a late night over? That’s what I’ll be doing.
The Ducks are 5-8-2. You could argue the only reason the Ducks have that record is because of Lukas Dostal, who leads the league in goals saved above expected. Dostal has been Anaheim’s saving grace, but he won’t be in net Friday night. Instead, it’ll be veteran John Gibson, who has made just one start to this point in 2024.
Meanwhile, it’ll be interesting to see who Detroit starts in net in the first leg of a back-to-back stretch. Cam Talbot has been magnificent this year, and similar to Dostal, has been Detroit’s saving grace. And guess what? Talbot ranks right behind Dostal in terms of goals saved above expected. However, it wouldn’t surprise me if the Red Wings gave Talbot the night off.
The veteran netminder has started four of Detroit’s last five games, including Wednesday’s win against Pittsburgh. If that’s the case, we would get Ville Husso between the pipes for Detroit, who has posted a -3.5 goals saved above expected number in only two starts. That’s good for 59th among all goalies - again, in just two starts.
I mentioned Nashville’s dead-last 5-on-5 shooting percentage this season. Guess who ranks 30th and 31st in that same stat? These two teams.
To summarize, two teams that are struggling to put the puck in the net, who have been bailed out by exceptional goaltending, could be sitting their exceptional goaltenders in this game. I like the over, but wait to see if Talbot’s in net for Detroit.
Pick: Over 6.5 Goals (-110)
