The conference finals are well underway, and the Friday kicking off Memorial Day Weekend gives us an interesting Game 2 between the Florida Panthers and New York Rangers to dissect.
The Panthers pitched a clean sheet in Game 1 by limiting New York’s scoring opportunities with an aggressive forecheck. Any shots that did get through were swatted away by Sergei Bobrovsky, who was excellent. Now, the President Trophy winners are facing unfamiliar territory in this postseason: being down in a series.
Will the blue shirts bounce back on home ice, or will Florida take a 2-0 series advantage to the Sunshine State? Here’s a betting breakdown of Friday’s Game 2 of the NHL Eastern Conference Finals.
Friday's Best NHL Picks
(Odds courtesy of DraftKings Sportsbook)
Florida Panthers (-108) @ New York Rangers (-112), O/U: 5.5 (+105/-125)
The Panthers deserve full credit for making a statement early and keeping the raucous crowd at Madison Square Garden mostly silent. Florida effectively forechecked the Rangers and limited their ability to get out on the counterattack. When the Rangers finally started to break through with some opportunities in the third period, Sergei Bobrovsky slammed the door shut. “Bob” was magnificent in Game 1, posting a goals saved above expected of 2.69. In other words, Bobrovsky stopped at least two goals that should’ve gone in.
After facing the likes of Charlie Lindgren and Frederik Andersen to start the playoffs, the Rangers were dealt a small dose of reality, going up against an elite goaltender for the first time all postseason. Game 1 was the rare occasion where the Rangers probably deserved a slightly better result, especially at 5-on-5. Despite limited scoring opportunities, the Rangers won the 5-on-5 expected goals battle 2.05-2. And while Bobrovsky is the best goalie the Rangers have seen in these playoffs, it’s hard to expect him to repeat that type of performance in Game 2, let alone the rest of this series.
Now, I still expect Florida to win this series, as they’re the deeper team with a goaltender who’s already proven he can outduel New York netminder Igor Shesterkin. Plus, Florida showed in Game 1 that it can stay out of the penalty box and limit opportunities for New York’s lethal power play. But I do think the Rangers will bounce back and tie this series up on Friday night.
The analytics definitely show a tighter game than the ultimate result. And keep in mind, this game was 1-0 with under four minutes to go before a hapless Carter Verhaeghe kicked the puck off Alexis Lafreniere’s skate and past Shesterkin for an own goal. At this short price, I’ll back the slight favorites at home.
As for the total, I don’t see a ton of value in the under at -125, as there’s plenty of firepower in this game to send it over. I’m staying off the total.
Finally, I’ll throw out a few goalscorer props. For the Rangers, I’ll be taking flyers on the two players who posted the best expected goals numbers at 5-0n-5, per MoneyPuck’s statistics. That’s Alex Wennberg (.408 xG at 5-on-5) and Lafreniere (.385 xG). If you’re looking for a bet on one of New York’s big guns, I’d go with Vincent Trocheck. As for Florida, I’ll take a shot on Vladimir Tarasenko, who posted the second-best xG at 5-on-5 in Game 1 among Panthers skaters.
The Picks:
- Rangers ML (-112)
- Alex Wennberg Anytime Goal Scorer (+650)
- Alexis Lafreniere Anytime Goal Scorer (+270)
- Vladimir Tarasenko Anytime Goal Scorer (+330)
